NHL Fantasy Hockey: Early Glimpse at Top 10 Defensemen for Next Season

Get a head start on planning for next year's fantasy hockey season. Jason Chen gives an early ranking of the top 10 NHL defenders for 2023-24.

No position has changed more in the cap era than defense. 

It’s not that big, heavy bruisers are falling out of favor – they never will, considering the slow rate of adoption of new ideas in hockey – but the greatest hockey minds have learned the importance of being mobile and having elite skill on the back end.

Being able to keep up with the pace of play and jump up on offense if necessary to disrupt the opposition’s defense has become a sought-after skill. As a result, there’s been a proliferation of smaller, more skilled defensemen who may have never gotten their fair chance even two decades ago.

Since 2005-06, there have only been 30 instances where a defenseman scored at least 70 points. Eight of those occurred during this past season, and five were in the previous season. In comparison, during a 15-year stretch from 2005 to 2020, it happened just 17 times.

In fantasy terms, this has really elevated the value of certain defensemen who can really score. It’s already a thin position for points, but there’s now a handful worth picking in the early rounds. 

Here’s an early look at the top 10 NHL fantasy hockey defensemen going into next season, with points and offensive categories as the main focus.

60 GP, 17-49-66, 30 PPP, 176 S, 26:23 TOI/GP

While Erik Karlsson had the most fabulous season, Makar remains the No. 1 rearguard in fantasy hockey. Playing on a high-octane offensive team, and being the only defenseman to average more than a point per game since entering the league in 2019-20, puts Makar at the top of the list. Among blueliners, Makar finished 2022-23 ninth in points, second in points per game, sixth in power-play points and 17th in shots despite missing 22 games.

78 GP, 15-58-73, 32 PPP, 204 S, 25:48 TOI/GP

It was a breakout season for Dahlin, who scored 20 more points than the previous season and a 34-point swing in his plus-minus. He set career highs virtually across the board without a spike in shooting percentage and arguably has the best surrounding cast going forward among the defensemen on this list. Dahlin is the only Swedish defender to finish with more than 70 points in a season in the cap era not named Nicklas Lidstrom, Erik Karlsson or Victor Hedman, all of whom did it multiple times. He’s in good company.

79 GP, 11-62-73, 34 PPP, 206 S, 25:29 TOI/GP

For the longest time, Heiskanen was the annual winner of the “better in real life than fantasy” award. He’s officially shed that reputation after he doubled last season’s point totals. His offensive production took a huge leap, buoyed by 206 shots on goal in 79 games, which represented the highest shooting rate of his career. The departure of John Klingberg allowed Heiskanen to play more on the power play, and a coaching change certainly helped as well. Going forward, Heiskanen should be a multi-category contributor with a really high floor.

82 GP, 22-52-74, 28 PPP, 275 S, 21:46 TOI/GP

The Devils’ offense should be excellent for years to come, which sets Hamilton up for a multi-year run where he scores 70 points every season. Hamilton was always a solid point producer who got a bit of a bad rap because he never stuck with one team for very long, and the track record speaks for itself. He’s part of the triumvirate of excellent high-volume shooting defensemen that includes Josi and Brent Burns, and shooting eight percent for the 2022-23 season isn’t outrageous enough to think that he won’t be able to repeat it.

67 GP, 18-41-59, 24 PPP, 269 S, 25:10 TOI/GP

A lot of Josi’s fantasy value is derived from his high-volume shooting. Never mind being compared to other defensemen; Josi’s 269 shots ranked 21st in the entire league, only one of four defensemen to rank in the top 50. He’s been a clear-cut top-five defenseman for years, but note Josi scored just three points in eight games after the trade deadline on March 3. The Preds are on a track to rebuild/retool, and more veterans may be put on the block. That means Josi’s upside could be capped, and we might’ve already seen his best season in 2021-22 when he scored 96 points.

78 GP, 7-69-76, 34 PPP, 154 S, 25:40 TOI/GP

The Canucks’ porous defense doesn’t do Hughes any justice. For the second straight season, Hughes notched at least 60 assists and finished with a positive plus-minus. The No. 1 concern with Hughes is his ability to defend and withstand hard-hitting checking forwards. Still, his production, significant usage and ability to play through and avoid injuries have dispelled those worries. Hughes’ rise has coincided with Elias Pettersson’s rise to superstardom and together will form one of the most dangerous power-play duos in the league. Since Hughes’ rookie season, he ranks third in points (238) and first in power-play points (109) among defensemen.

82 GP, 12-60-72, 29 PPP, 159 S, 24:23 TOI/GP

Fox has been consistently amazing since entering the league. Aside from scoring 70 points for the second straight season, he also finished within five tallies of his previous season’s total in even-strength points, power-play points, shots, blocks and hits. What you see is what you get with Fox, and there should be a premium on consistently meeting expectations. The one drawback is that Fox doesn’t shoot the puck very much, and a talented blueline that also includes Jacob Trouba, K’Andre Miller and Braden Schneider means Fox is unlikely to lead the league in minutes played.

82 GP, 25-76-101, 27 PPP, 209 S, 25:37 TOI/GP

Karlsson had an incredible season, but you look at the landscape, and you wonder how he could possibly replicate such a performance. Logan Couture just turned 34, and trading Tomas Hertl seems inevitable if the Sharks want to jumpstart their rebuild. According to naturalstattrick.com, Karlsson’s 66.67 percent IPP – meaning Karlsson earned two points for every three goals the Sharks scored – was the outlier, and this is supported by a 5-on-5 shooting percentage of 10.53 percent, an increase of over 30 percent from the previous season.

80 GP, 16-57-73, 33 PPP, 242 S, 24:08 TOI/GP

The lack of an extensive track record works against Montour. While he doubled his previous total, just like Heiskanen, Montour was never considered a top-tier defender until this season. Thanks to a bigger role and more rein on offense, Montour took over from the oft-injured Aaron Ekblad and emerged as the Panthers’ top defenseman. He’s aggressive at both ends of the ice – which also makes him even more fantastic in banger leagues – and another season like this one and will move into the top five.

78 GP, 16-60-76, 28 PPP, 172 S, 24:14 TOI/GP

It would’ve been a disservice to Morrissey’s season to place him outside the top 10, considering he finished tied for second in scoring among defensemen, but there is room for skepticism. Morrissey’s shooting percentage spiked to 9.3 percent this season, his home-versus-road splits told two very different stories, and his production faded in the second half. It’s also pretty amazing he scored 28 points on a power play that ranked 23rd in the league, considering he’s not a fearsome shooter or playmaker. The Jets are moving further away from winning the Cup rather than moving closer.

Sergachev was easily the best candidate to displace Morrissey at No. 10. He’s overtaken Victor Hedman as the quarterback on one of the league’s most fearsome power plays. At 24 years old, there’s certainly a long ramp ahead. Sergachev, along with Heiskanen, Montour, Morrissey and Vince Dunn, also saw a significant jump in points from last season.

Burns is a shooting machine and valuable mostly because he gets so many shots on goal. A move to the Canes significantly boosted his fantasy stock, and on a deeper blueline, he also doesn’t have to shoulder the lion’s share of the minutes. He has a high floor, but Burns will turn 39 next season, and it’s likely his best days are behind him.

Dunn scored 64 points on a team that rode a high shooting percentage all season, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see a slight regression. He was considered one of the Kraken’s best picks at the expansion draft and made good his potential as a puck-moving defenseman. The Kraken have a ton of options on offense, which also bodes well for Dunn.

Carlson will be the forgotten all-star next season after missing a big chunk of the season due to a fractured skull. Pro-rated, Carlson was on pace to score 59 points, which would’ve snapped a streak of three straight 70-point seasons (the shortened 2021 season excluded), but don’t forget he’s the one feeding Alex Ovechkin all the pucks on the man advantage. Carlson will enter next season as their top power-play quarterback, though Rasmus Sandin looms large.

A full season of Mathew Barzal and Bo Horvat will be interesting because the Isles could have a really good power play after ranking 30th this season. Dobson is their undisputed quarterback and offers more offensive upside than any of their other defenders. Dobson ranks 18th in points (100), 11th in power-play points (41) and ninth in shots (396) among defensemen over the past two seasons.