Could Jakob Chychrun's Extension Set The Market For Ivan Provorov?

The Washington Capitals have announced that they have signed Jakob Chychrun to an eight-year extension worth $72 million, carrying an AAV of $9 million per season.

While it’s great that Chychrun has finally found a home and secured a big payday, fans around the league know this signing will have a ripple effect. For Columbus Blue Jackets fans, this likely impacts the contract Ivan Provorov could receive this summer.

Provorov, a pending free agent, was retained by the Blue Jackets at the March 8 trade deadline—and rightfully so, as they remain in the Eastern Conference wild-card race. But now, with Chychrun landing $9 million per season, the question becomes: what will Provorov command?

It’s an interesting debate because these two defensemen play different styles. Provorov has offensive ability but leans more toward a two-way/defensive role, whereas Chychrun is more offensively driven.

With that in mind, it’s worth taking a deeper look at how Chychrun’s contract might affect Provorov’s potential deal—and if it does, by how much.

First, let's look at their games played, points, and points per game stats.

2024-25 Season: 

Games: 65

Points: 43 (18G + 25A)

Points Per Game: .66 PPG

Career:

Games: 532

Points: 259 (94G + 165A)

Points Per Game: .48

2024-25 Season: 

Games: 70

Points: 30 (7G + 23A)

Points Per Game: .42

Career:

Games: 684

Points: 279 (77G + 202A)

Points Per Game: .40

Over the course of their careers, Provorov has recorded more points in more games. However, Chychrun has a higher points-per-game rate. If Chychrun were to play the additional 64 games to match Provorov’s total, he would be projected to add roughly 30 more points, bringing his total to 289 points in 684 games.

One important factor to consider with Provorov is that he isn’t the Blue Jackets’ top defenseman the way Chychrun is for Washington. Zach Werenski holds that role in Columbus, so Provorov shouldn’t be expected to be paid like a true No. 1 defenseman.

With Chychrun signing for $72 million over eight years, Provorov could command somewhere around $55 million over seven years if he hits the open market, which would give him an AAV of $7.85 million. If he were to re-sign with the Blue Jackets and wanted that same $55 million spread over eight years, his AAV would drop to $6.87 million due to the extra year Columbus can offer.

Regardless of whether Columbus extends him, Provorov shouldn’t be in the same salary range as Chychrun or defensemen making north of $9 million. That tier is reserved for elite defensemen, whereas Provorov likely falls into the second or third tier of top NHL blue-liners.