The Calgary Flames (5-12-2) will finish their two-game home stand, facing the Winnipeg Jets (10-7-0) for the third and final time this season.
Coming from easily their most comfortable win last game against San Jose, the Flames look to start their second only winning streak this season.
In front of them will be a decent offence, ranking 31st in even-strength time on ice as well as scoring chances. Their shots on goal rank 30th and high-danger scoring chances produced rank a bit better at 26th. Winnipeg, despite their offensive flaws, is tied with four other teams at 18th with goals scored (39).
The line of Kyle Connor-Connor Scheifele-Gabriel Vilardi is one of only three lines that has played at least 200 minutes of 5v5 hockey. The line after that with the most time on ice is Anaheim's Cutter Gauthier-Mason McTavish-Beckett Sennecke at 159:49. While the aforementioned Jets line was on the ice, the team scored 13 goals and gave up 11.
Winnipeg's defence has also been porous. The team has allowed the 14th-lowest shots on goal, but eighth-most and 11th-most scoring chances and high-danger scoring chances respectively. Their top duo of Dylan DeMelo-John Morrisey is tied for the sixth-highest on-ice goals scored (14), but also has given up the fourth-most on-ice goals (12) for pairs that have played at least 220 minutes of even-strength hockey.
In that same list, Calgary's top duo of Rasmus Andersson-Kevin Bahl is tied for the 12th-highest on-ice goals scored (11) and tied for the lowest goals given up (5).
With an even-strength time on ice that ranks fifth, the Flames defence should be feeling good after registering their first shutout in their last game. Dustin Wolf, who is confirmed in net, may expect a barrage of shots as Calgary ranks 10th in most shots on goal. But considering the opponent and the stats, they might not be quality shots as the Flames blue liners give up the seventh-lowest and 10th-lowest scoring chances and high-danger scoring chances respectively
It's the offence that Flames fans need to worry about. Despite ranking second in shots, they rank 11th in scoring chances and 18th in high-danger scoring chances in even-strength hockey. Before we get too excited about the relatively higher ranking in scoring chances, you have to take into consideration that of the 414 scoring chances they have produced so far, 39 of them (9.42%) came in their cake-walk of a game against the Sharks on Thursday.
Calgary's power play is dead-last and that has been a nightmare for a while. And while the Jets are second in most penalty-kill time on the ice, they are also fifth in PK percentage.
The Flames own penalty-kill broke an interesting streak in their last game: all their regulation wins before (vs Rangers, Flyers, Blue Jackets) came in games where they were short-handed for two minutes or less without giving up a PP goal, or simply, were on the penalty-kill just once. In their last game against San Jose, they were on the PK twice.
Winnipeg is in the middle of the pack in power play time on ice at 17th, but their PP percentage ranks higher at 11th. So it's best to avoid going into the box.
Their best player is undoubtedly the expected goalie, Connor Hellebuyck who has his eyes set as starting netminder for the US Olympic team roster for Milano Cortina 2026. His save percentage of 0.914 is the highest amongst the only 13 goalies in the league that have played at least 13 games.
Bottom Line
Exploit the Jets weak defence and then someway, somehow find a way around Hellebuyck.
You had a great chance to capitalize on a weak San Jose PK last game but you couldn't take advantage then and went 0-for-3 on the PP, so I guess that's off the table in this game.
Best you can do is not give up any penalties and make it relatively easier night for Wolf. The California Kid also needs to come up big.