The first-round series between regular season champions the Montreal Victoire and third-place defending Walter Cup champions the Minnesota Frost will have no shortage of storylines. The very fact that Montreal chose to play the dangerous Frost speaks to the confidence that the team has going into the post-season. Montreal swept the four-game season series, with two regulation and two overtime wins, while Minnesota finished 0–2–2, picking up just two points out of a possible 12 compared to Montreal’s 10. The gap shows up clearly in scoring: the Victoire outscored Minnesota 12–3 across the four games. It wasn’t just finishing, either — Montreal outshot Minnesota 125–83 overall, a +42 differential. What will be the major deciding factors between the two teams? 1. THE POULIN FACTOR Even in a four-game season season series, Marie-Philip Poulin managed to feel inevitable. The Victoire captain had four points (2G, 2A) in three games (both overtime winners in the first two games) and was directly involved in the moments that decided the only close games. Poulin was the leading scorer for Montreal, and she only played three of the four games, missing the final contest with the knee injury that held her out for several weeks after the Olympics. How healthy is she now? And can she finally deliver a playoff series victory for her team, or do they need her to just be part of the scoring depth that is now a strength of this group? Kori Cheverie on the series against Minnesota 2. CAN MINNESOTA SOLVE DESBIENS? Ann-Renée Desbiens didn’t just play well against the Frost. She gave Minnesota, the highest-scoring team in the PWHL, nothing. She had back-to-back shutouts to close the series, and only allowed three goals total, Minnesota generated 21 shots in Game 4 and 17 in Game 3 — not nothing, but not enough to break through once Desbiens settled in. If the Frost are going to be in this series, they likely need to find a way to get to second chances, create more chaos around the net, or beat Desbiens early in games before she locks in. Because once she gets comfortable, this matchup has already shown how quickly offense can disappear. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3. SAGGING OR SURGING? The Frost enter this post-season cold as ice (pun intended). They lost seven of their last nine, including their last four in a row. Before that, they were able to score their way out of trouble, but after late March, their offense didn't outperform their shaky defensive play, and they struggled for results. However, Minnesota has managed to qualify for the playoffs all three PWHL seasons in different ways. In season one, they backed into the playoffs when Ottawa couldn't, and last year, it took the Frost until the final game to qualify when three teams needed to win to get in. They still defeated the Sceptres in four games, and got stronger as the playoffs continued. On the other hand, Montreal has been hot. They won eight of their last nine games, including seven straight from March 25 to April 17 when their goal differential was 23-6. And they did it without captain Marie-Philip Poulin, who has been absent since re-injuring her knee on March 15. Their depth scoring, and clutch performances from Laura Stacey and Ann-Renée Desbiens has the Victoire surging as they enter the post-season. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4. MONTREAL’S DEPTH VS. MINNESOTA’S STARS The two overtime games showed that these teams aren't separated by much, and can find a goal when needed. But the more recent games were won by a combined 7–0, with seven different Victoire goal scorers across those two games, and one of those wins without Poulin in the lineup. Montreal can win a one-goal game driven by its best player — and it can win comfortably with contributions up and down the lineup. Abby Roque had a goal and two assists, while Laura Stacey, Hayley Scamurra, and Maureen Murphy added important points. Nicole Gosling has also taken on a larger role on the blue line and has thrived. Minnesota, on the other hand, relied on Kendall Coyne Schofield (1 G, 2 A) for offense, and she missed both of the later games with an injury. Her presence will be huge for the Frost. Kelly Pannek also managed two goals, but after that, Minnesota didn’t find that same secondary push offensively. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5. WILL SPECIAL TEAMS MATTER? Through four regular season meetings, they didn’t. There were zero power-play goals for either team and just one special teams goal total (Montreal shorthanded). That’s rare over a sample this size, and it suggests these teams are comfortable playing at five-on-five. But in playoff series, special teams become magnified. And while both teams had strong power plays (the top two in the league, Minnesota at 23.0% and Montreal at 19.3%), the penalty kill is a different story. Montreal's PK was tops at almost 92%, while the Frost were at the bottom with only 78%, a stat that could become fatal if it costs them goals at important times. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- THE BOTTOM LINE The numbers tell one story: that Montreal simply rolled over Minnesota, and has advantages in home ice, goaltending, and a very motivated captain in Marie-Philip Poulin. But if Minnesota has taught us anything, it's that they can sneak into the playoffs, or come into the post-season ice cold, and start to find their way through a series. Their championship pedigree speaks for itself. This should be a fascinating matchup.
