With the PWHL rounding the corner to the last third of the season, our playoff tracker looks at the current outlook for all eight teams. THE CLINCH LINE A team clinches when it can no longer be caught by the highest team outside the top four. The highest outsider ceiling right now is Ottawa at 59 points. So the current clinch number = 60 points, and the closest teams to clinching are Boston and Montréal who would both need 25 points to reach 60. THE ELIMINATION LINE Toronto’s mathematical ceiling has dropped from 59 points to 55 since our last tracker [https://thehockeynews.com/womens/pwhl/pwhl-playoffs-a-too-soon-look-at-the-gold-plan]. With 10 games remaining, that’s the most the Sceptres can possibly reach. As a result, their elimination threshold has fallen to 56 points — meaning Toronto would be out once four teams pass that mark. It’s a reminder that the playoff race tightens not just through wins above the line, but simply as the calendar removes chances to climb. Image [https://deweb-519a7.b-cdn.net/post-images/7caaaf9a-2510-40dd-8bf2-cb1ace15d858.png] PLAYOFF CUT LINE PROJECTION Right now, the fourth place team, New York, has 27 points in 19 games. At that pace, the projected playoff cut line sits around 46 points, meaning teams below the top four likely need roughly 20 more points over the final stretch to stay in contention. Projected Points Percentage Needed for Teams to Make Playoffs [https://deweb-519a7.b-cdn.net/post-images/249ed469-4d17-4223-9ab9-1843f8193d20.png] Projected Points Percentage Needed for Teams to Make Playoffs WHAT THE NUMBERS MEAN Boston and Montreal only need to play at a very comfortable pace (below .400) the rest of the way. Minnesota needs a very manageable .410 pace in their remaining 13 games. New York and Ottawa need to play beyond their current percentages, which are both below .500 – a real playoff push is required. And for Toronto, Vancouver, Seattle, the reality is that they need a serious sudden heater (a .700 pace) to get into the playoffs. THE GOLD PLAN RACE Toronto, with a maximum possible total of 55 points, would be the first team at risk of elimination — potentially as early as late March. They would be the first team to start accumulating Gold Plan points, which determine draft order based on points earned after playoff contention ends. If teams continue at their current pace, Vancouver and Seattle could look at an early April elimination, and Ottawa or New York in late April. Why does that matter? Because the #1 pick is likely standout defender Caroline Harvey from Wisconsin. Maybe we should call them Harvey Points? However, with three games versus Ottawa and two against New York remaining, Toronto still has a path into the playoffs within their own control. In fact, for all three contending teams, they need the others to trade points and stay close, rather than having one of them pull away. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Follow C Benwell on X @gamedayhky [https://x.com/gamedayhky] on YouTube @gamedayhockey and on Instagram @gamedayhky [https://www.instagram.com/gamedayhky/]
