Do Hot Starts Matter? A Look at the Top Teams at the Beginning, and End, of the 22-23 AHL Season

Much is made in the sport of hockey about starting hot out of the gate. In the NHL, in particular, a poor start to the season can prove fatal to a coach or GM's career prospects (see Woodcroft, Jay). Though for a club eager to suit up for games deep into the post-season, is a hot start, or conversely a brutal one, the difference between abject success or failure?

The Hockey News looked back at the standings from this day one year ago, assessing which teams topped, and flopped, in their respective divisions, and fast-forwarding to season's end to see where they ranked. Does a hot start matter? See for yourself.

Atlantic Division

In the Atlantic, the Providence Bruins topped the division, and league overall, on November 14th, 2022, with a sparkling 10-1-1-1 record through 13 games with a stellar 40-29 GF/GA average. Through 12 games the Hershey Bears clocked in second in the division with an equally impressive 8-2-2, seven of those wins occurring at home. The division basement belonged to the LeHigh Valley Phantoms and Hartford Wolf Pack, who both opened to middling .500 records of 5-5-1 and 4-4-1 with sub-500 GF/GA averages. 

Fast-forward to season's end and the top two remained the same. Providence finished with a division-clinching 98 points opposite 97 for the Bears, those same Bears that would go on to run the table and earn a hard-fought Calder Cup victory in June. 

At the bottom of the Atlantic resided the WBS Penguins, who finished with a .458 win percentage. The Phantoms (80 points) and Wolf Pack (81 points) both squeaked into the playoffs. Bridgeport, who opened the season with a healthy 7-2-3 record, narrowly missed the post-season with a final tally of 76 points. 

The Phantoms would bow out in the opening round to Charlotte, while Hartford edged past Springfield en route to an upset win over division leaders Providence, before falling to the Bears in three straight in the division finals. 

North Division

Through 12 games played on this date a year ago today, the Toronto Marlies were kings of the North, putting up a strong .792 win percentage (9-2-1) with a +9 GF/GA differential. Just behind them on the division ladder were the Rochester Americans with a 7-4-1-1 record, with a narrow +1 GF/GA. At the bottom of the division sat Laval in sixth (3-8-3) and Utica in seventh (3-5-1-1), with both clubs naturally suffering from lopsided GF/GA tallies and earning woeful road records. 

At season's end, the Marlies remained division leaders with 90 points, nine more than their runner-up Syracuse, who moved from fifth place on November 14th to second with 81 points. Our basement dwellers Utica and Laval both made their way into the postseason with 80 and 76 points apiece, while Cleveland (7-5 through 12 games to start the season) and Belleville (5-6-1 season start) were on the outside looking in. 

In the playoffs, Utica would edge Laval in two straight before falling to Toronto in the division semifinals, who in turn were bounced by Rochester, who narrowed out Syracuse three games to two before sweeping the Marlies in the division finals. The Americans would fall to the eventual league champion Bears in six games in the conference finals. 

Central Division

In the central division, the Milwaukee Admirals would lead the pack with an opening line of 8-4, including a stellar 6-1 road record (albeit just 2-3 at home). The Manitoba Moose, in 11 games, compiled a 7-3-1 record, going undefeated on the road at that stage. The Rockford IceHogs (5-5-0-1, 11 points) and Chicago Wolves (4-6-1, 9 points) sat at the bottom of the seven-team division.

Flash ahead to April and the Texas Stars, who sat just above .500 with a 6-5-2-1 record through 14 games, won the division with 92 points, with early season leaders Milwaukee following behind with 89 points. Rockford narrowly made it into the playoffs with a 35-28 record with 79 points, just edging Chicago, who missed out on a post-season berth by just one point. Grand Rapids would be the other central club cut from post-season play with a bottom-five league overall finish of 64 points, beginning the campaign at .500 with a 6-6-1 record.

In the playoffs, Rockford would unseat fourth-seed Iowa before dropping three straight to Texas. Milwaukee edged Manitoba 3-2 before upsetting the Stars in the division finals. The Adrmials would bow out to the Coachella Valley Firebirds in six games in the conference finals. 

Pacific Division

In the pacific the Bakersfield Condors sat atop a crowded division with 15 points thanks to a 7-3-1 start, tying Ontario and Colorado in points with fewer games played, with eventually western conference champion Coachella Valley nipping at their heels with 14 points. At the bottom of the division were the San Diego Gulls (5-8, 10 points, 1-4 home record) and the Henderson Silver Knights (3-10, 6 points, 1-5 road record).

By the end of the regular season, the standings would be juggled. The Calgary Wranglers would win the league points title with 106 points despite earning just 13 to start the year, with Coachella Valley close behind with 103. Bakersfield would drop to fifth place in the division with 78 points, while Henderson and San Diego would flip flop bottom positions, with the Silver Knights finishing with 63 points, while the Gulls ended with a putrid league-worst 43 with only 20 wins out of 72 games played. 

In the playoffs, fourth-seed Abbotsford shut out Bakersfield en route to a 3-1 series loss to Calgary. Coachella Valley walked through seventh-seed Tucson before edging Colorado in the division semi-finals (who in turn had knocked off the sixth-seed Ontario Reign). The Firebirds won a close series against the Wranglers, going on to roar past Milwaukee in the conference finals before dropping a heartbreaking seven-game series loss to the Bears in the cup final. 

The Verdict

Do hot starts matter? The answer, while largely obvious, has a few shades of grey. 

Of the eight teams that finished in the top two of their respective divisions, all eight made the post-season with varying levels of success. 

The kicker lies in the idea of a poor start proving fatal to the odds of cashing in on a post-season berth. 

Of the bottom-feeding eight from all four divisions, only three - San Diego, Henderson, and Chicago - missed out on a playoff appearance. 

Hot starts are important, surely, and while faltering out of the gate is no team's idea of a good time, there are still 60-plus games of play to be had and plenty of opportunity to dig yourself out of an early hole of your own making.