Edmonton’s Zach Hyman has scored 11 of his 14 goals this postseason from high-danger scoring chances, where Sergei Bobrovsky has a .872 save percentage and ranks in the 93rd percentile.
The Oilers return home Thursday night as they are down 2-0 in the series with many doubting if they can come back. Edmonton’s captain Connor McDavid doesn’t mind the challenge and is excited to prove doubters wrong.
Florida could put them against the ropes with a Game Three win while the Oilers can do the same if they get enough momentum to feel like they have a shot to even the series with a win.
It’ll be a close game and we like to profit from it as we’ve been red hot through the first two games with a 4-1 record and our only loss being the Oilers falling short in Game Two.
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Bet: Over 5.5 goals (-105), Matthew Tkachuk Over 2.5 shots on goal (-180)
The Oilers usually play exciting games at home as they have a 6-3 record but a three goals against average this postseason. They counteract their defensive miscues by leading the best home offense that averages four goals a game.
Edmonton is going to be playing on edge as it is a must-win game and will have a very loud Rogers Place behind them that should help them score more than one goal on Sergei Bobrovsky.
Florida doesn’t just rep the best home record at 8-3 this postseason but also the best on the road at 6-2 with a 3.25 goals per game average. Matthew Tkachuk has lead the Panthers in road points with ten through eight games and will help generate chances as he shots as much as anybody.
He is currently tied for sixth in road shots this postseason with Edmonton’s Leon Draisaitl at 30 which means he’s averaged 3.75 per game and has continued that trend as of late with 15 over his last four games.
Bet: Connor McDavid Over 1.5 points (-130), Zach Hyman Under 0.5 points (+150)
Tkachuk will be productive but so will the Oilers offense as they have four of the top skaters in home points this postseason. Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard, Zach Hyman and Leon Draisaitl have combined for 20 goals in nine home games.
One of them will surely score and it will likely be from a Connor McDavid pass as he has 17 assists in their nine home games with ten of them coming at even strength. McDavid should be an impact as he always is with multiple points in four straight home games but we don’t expect the same from Zach Hyman.
Hyman is a constant net-front presence but that strategy doesn’t work too well against a physical Panthers team that constantly clears the crease. Bobrovsky is known to be better low than high when it comes to scoring chances.
Hyman is starting to slow down in the scoring department with no points in three of his last four games. He has also taken 80 shots this postseason with 50 of them coming from high-danger chances in front of the net, where Sergei Bobrovsky has a .872 save percentage and ranks in the 93rd percentile.
It’s possible that Hyman can get a goal from this range as Bobrovsky has allowed 18 of his 39 postseason goals from high-danger chances but it doesn’t seem likely with how aggressive the Panthers have been at clearing the front of their net with Edmonton having no high-danger scoring chances in Game Two.