After a lengthy layoff, the Stanley Cup Final gets underway tonight in Las Vegas. Florida has not played a game for over a week, and Vegas was given a few days off. Both of those scenarios have their advantages and disadvantages.
When you're in a flow, a long hiatus can disrupt the routine. Bobrovsky has been the hottest goaltender for over a month now and routine is key to that. Practice day or game day, pre game meals and naps, the travel. You play your best when you're on auto-pilot and revving that engine up after 10 days can be challenging. I don't expect Florida to come out flat, but I do expect a level of rust associated with a lengthy hiatus. Vegas started fast and furious in the Conference Finals with the first period over hitting in every game. Considering all of those factors, I like Vegas to score first tonight.
In that same vein, Vegas is the better team on paper and shouldn't have the same degree of rust as Florida. Playing at home, in one of the best playoff environments should be a recipe for success tonight. I'm taking Vegas ML at -127.
The one area I expect Florida to have an advantage is on the forecheck. They were able to effectively break Carolina's breakout apart and Vegas plays a similar fashion. Florida's 1-2-2 forecheck has been a nightmare for teams in the playoffs, creating turnovers, hemming teams in and using their physicality. Vegas is more physical than any team Florida has played, but they may struggle to break the Florida forecheck. With a heavy concentration of Florida's offence coming from the top-six, I'm taking Matthew Tkachuk over 3.5 shots.
This game is going to be a good one. I expect there to be a fast start followed by a defensive battle once the teams settle in. This is going to be a tight checking series with lots of hits and nastiness. Enjoy!