Concerns about work ethic and the lack of impactful additions to a bottom-tier offense make Elias Pettersson a risky bet heading into next season.
The NHL season is right around the corner, and once again we’re diving into regular season player props just like we did last offseason. We had strong success identifying value plays, often capitalizing on situations where sportsbooks failed to account for important context and long-term player trends beyond just the previous season's stats.
One of our biggest wins came with Connor McDavid. Despite being widely regarded as the league’s best player, we recognized that he’s not a pure goal scorer. When sportsbooks set his goal total at a surprising 51.5, we confidently took the under, knowing he had scored more than 44 goals just once in his nine prior seasons.
We also hit on nearly all of our other picks, including Mitch Marner, Mark Scheifele, Wyatt Johnston, Rasmus Dahlin, Teuvo Teravainen. We backed Connor Hellebuyck to go over his win total and win the Vezina Trophy, both of which came through.
More NHL: Sportsbooks Left Exposed With Easy Future Bet On Jets' Kyle Connor
A player we aren't taking the over with is Vancouver's Elias Pettersson, who has an over/under set at 76.5 (-115 on BetMGM) for points next season. This may be surprising considering he finished with 102 and 89 points in the prior two seasons to last year but since signing his new contract, the 26-year-old center appears to have stop progressing and this was rumored to be the cause of tension during his feud with teammate J.T. Miller.
For the better part of his career, Pettersson has been a near point-per-game player with 457 points through 471 games. His numbers have always been impressive but since signing his current eight-year deal with a $11.6 million cap hit in March of 2024, Pettersson has produced just 59 points through 84 games, which gives him a 0.70 point-per-game average which is a steep drop from his 0.97 career average.
The common opinion is last season was just a down year due to the media scrutiny plus injuries and that he'll be back to peak form this year. This may not be the case as Pettersson's work ethic has been questioned by his own coach and teammates in the media. This being the focal point of the locker room divide with J.T. Miller is just a rumor and theory but it's hard to imagine that he will be able to take any step forward if this is the case.
More NHL: McDavid to Lead Oilers Offense and Score More Amid Injuries, Rookie Lineup Changes
Tocchet Calls Out Pettersson, Confirms Star's Spat with J.T. Miller - The Hockey Writers Vancouver Canucks Latest News, Analysis & More
Rick Tocchet was quick to throw shade at Elias Pettersson while also talking about the rift between Pettersson and J.T. Miller this season.
He played a majority of his minutes last season with his current projected linemates for next in Jake Debrusk and Brock Boeser. The line did not perform as well as the team hoped as they allowed nine goals while only scoring five. The Canucks also made little improvement to their roster, adding Evander Kane but losing forward depth with Pius Suter and Dakota Joshua.
Vancouver's backend will be their strength with a lot of the pressure being put on Pettersson to perform once again and lead the offense. If he continues to struggle in the spotlight and continue his slump, his numbers will likely look more inline with his recent projections but with a slight uptick due to playing time and probably finishes at around 60-65 on the season.
This isn't so much as a suggestion to take the under but rather refrain from taking the over especially cause after the Miller trade, Pettersson still didn't improve and has been noted as being a health risk considering he has a smaller frame than most centers. The Canucks may be an even worse offense after finishing bottom ten in scoring last season and likely won't be worth any bets going into the upcoming year.
More NHL: Leafs' Auston Matthews Primed for Bounce Back Season Without Marner, Sportsbooks Remain Skeptical
All betting lines are from BetMGM Sportsbook and are subject to change. Hockey is a difficult sport to predict so please gamble responsibly.
Sign up with BetMGM, make a deposit, and place your first wager on any game using your First Bet Offer token. If that bet with the token applied loses, you’ll get your original stake paid back in Bonus Bets, up to $1,500! Get in the game today with BetMGM.