Sportsbooks are seemingly overestimating the dip in Leafs’ Auston Matthews production with Mitch Marner’s departure.

The NHL season is fast approaching, and we're once again turning our attention to regular season player props, just like we did last offseason. We had great success uncovering value plays, often capitalizing on sportsbooks that overlooked key context and player history beyond just last season’s stats. 

We took advantage of the sportsbooks not knowing anything about Connor McDavid and that he's not a goal scorer and easily hit the under for his goal total last season, which was at a shocking 51.5 when he scored more than 44 goals just once in his nine prior NHL seasons. We also hit on nearly all of our other player prop picks like Mitch Marner, Mark Scheifele, Wyatt Johnston, Rasmus Dahlin, Teuvo Teravainen and Connor Hellebuyck to his over in wins plus take home the Vezina trophy.

The sportsbooks are once again neglecting past years of performance and are going off recent numbers and a key linemate leaving in the case of Maple Leafs captain Auston Matthews. His goal total is at a very low over/under 47.5 (-115 on BetMGM) considering his past history as a former 69-goal scorer. The loss of Mitch Marner will certainly be a sizable loss to Matthews’ production but just as one star leaves another emerges. The breakout star for Toronto last season was left winger Matthew Knies, who used his gritty, physical style of play to score clutch goals and set up plays alongside Matthews and Marner.  

Knies scored 29 goals and dished for 29 assists for 58 points last season after recording just 35 points the year prior. The Arizona connection between Matthews and Knies should help carry each other’s production and could see a small dip in production for Matthews but not enough that he won’t cover 48 goals. In past years, Matthews has consistently missed time but still managed to put up impressive scoring numbers. He’s surpassed or was on pace to score 48 or more goals in four of the last six years with last season being an outlier as he struggled with injuries a majority of the time. 

More NHL: Fade Pastrnak, Ride With Geekie: Roles Set To Reverse in Boston

Auston Matthews Games Played, Season Total Goals, Goal-Per-Game rate, Pace Over 82 Games, Games Needed To Score 48 Goals Based On Average

• 2019-20: 70 Games Played, 47 Goals, 0.67 Average, 55 Goal Pace, 72 Games Needed
• 2020-21: 52 Games Played, 41 Goals, 0.78 Average, 64 Goal Pace, 62 Games Needed
• 2021-22: 73 Games Played, 60 Goals, 0.82 Average, 67 Goal Pace, 59 Games Needed
• 2022-23: 74 Games Played, 40 Goals, 0.54 Average, 44 Goal Pace, *89 Games Needed*
• 2023-24: 81 Games Played, 69 Goals, 0.85 Average, 69 Goal Pace, 57 Games Needed
• 2024-25: 67 Games Played, 33 Goals, 0.49 Average, 40 Goal Pace, *99 Games Needed*

Matthews, based on his previous averages and projections, should be able to easily clear 48 goals as he’s able to do so or has been on track to accomplish this feat on a consistent basis. The 27-year-old has been out of the lineup at times with 75 games missed over that six-season stretch but he has gotten time to recover since being eliminated by the Florida Panthers in the second round in mid-May. 

If fans or betters are worried about his production dipping without Marner, there’s no hiding that pair played together for a majority of the last six seasons but Matthews did see time with and excelled alongside other linemates like during the 2022-23 season with Michael Bunting and William Nylander or during the 2019-20 season with Nylander and Andreas Johnsson. Not being able to play with a 75-assist player will certainly hurt but we can see from his history that as long as he can stay healthy and remain in the lineup, he should be able to easily clear this number so long as Knies can operate well enough in the set-up role.

More NHL: Why A Healthy Jack Hughes Could Be the NHL's Best Betting Value