Bedard Made Hockey Cards Go Mainstream — Is That a Good Thing?

Has the popularity of Connor Bedard priced-out the common hockey collector?

Connor Bedard has vaulted hockey cards to a level not seen in nearly 10 years. Bedard has arguably created a bigger buzz in the industry than Connor McDavid did when his cards were released in 2015-16 Upper Deck products.

Is that a good thing?

Of course, it is a good thing. 

Is it really a good thing? Well, that depends.

Upper Deck 2023-24 products cost anywhere from 150% to 300% more than 2022-23. In other words, the Bedard tax is real. 

So, is it a good thing that hockey cards have become mainstream?

Again, the answer is yes. But that does not mean the Bedard tax has not taken a major toll on the industry.

Those who buy hockey cards can be divided into two categories: "Bedard chasers" and those who do not care about collecting Bedard cards.

The Bedard chasers are going to buy into every break that they can. The price of the Bedard or Chicago Blackhawks spots is a non-starter. If there is a chance at hitting a Bedard card, there are a pool of buyers willing to take that chance.

Those who do not care about collecting Bedard cards are in a tough spot. There are many complaints from long-time hockey collectors that they are being priced out. Many average collectors love opening boxes of hockey products.

Let's use Upper 2023-24 SPx hockey as an example. The 2023-24 SPx hockey retails for $180 USD. The 2022-23 SPx hockey retails for $90. 

The increased cost is not the only issue. Bedard has made 2023-24 hockey products extremely top-heavy in the sense that if you do not get a big hit, the return on investment is extremely low.

Again, the above paragraph pertains mainly to collectors. Bedard chasers do not see the price of 2023-24 hockey products as an obstacle. 

The answer is now. 

The 2023-24 SPx Hockey is a very challenging product for Bedard chasers. Using a case break as an example, most breakers are pricing the Blackhawks at $59 per box for a chance to hit a Bedard card. That means if someone wanted to chase Bedard for an entire 20 box Case of 2023-24 SPx hockey, it would cost them $1,180. That represents 33% of the cost of the 20 box case.

What can that $1,180 get you? It could get you a Bedard autograph worth thousands of dollars. However, in most cases that $1,180 gets you a couple Bedard cards worth less than $50.

The only way to avoid the Bedard tax is to not buy sealed 2023-24 hockey products. This goes back to collectors becoming priced-out. It is a tough sell on a long-time collector to pay double or triple for the same product on a year-over-year basis, especially if Bedard is of no interest.

Buying into a properly priced group break is an option to avoid the Bedard tax. But group breaks are not for everyone. Many collectors enjoy opening boxes on their own versus watching someone else open boxes for them.

Bedard is a challenge for the hockey collecting community as a whole. Collectors are getting tapped out and breakers are running out of creative ways to keep the cost down on Bedard and Blackhawks spots.

But the bigger challenge is pricing for 2024-25 products. Is Upper Deck expecting collectors to pay higher prices for the Macklin Celebrini rookie class than the Bedard rookie class?

Happy hunting and collecting!