Buy, Sell, Hold: 2020-21 Upper Deck Young Guns

In this bi-weekly column, we’ll take a look at notable hockey players' Young Guns cards. Much like the housing market, there are always buyer's markets, seller's markets, and time to sit back and do nothing. When players are in the spotlight, it might be the perfect time to capitalize on gains and sell while on the flip side of the coin, there are also buying opportunities when players are forgotten about, such as when they’re injured.

In this edition, we’re examining some of (not all) the more notable Young Guns cards from Upper Deck 2020-21. Nearly three years after the releases of the top chase cards such as Alexis Lafreniere, Kirill Kaprizov, and Stim Stutzle, is it time to buy, sell or hold?

Buy: Alexis Lafreniere

It’s difficult to remember the highly touted former number-one overall pick has only just recently turned 22 years old. Entering his fourth season in the NHL, the winger has had a handful of obstacles in his way of sustained success. He’s had multiple head coaches and linemates and is currently transitioning to play RW. Despite being buried on the third line for the majority of his career, and not receiving powerplay time until last season, Lafreniere has managed to improve on his point tally each season since entering the league. Now seeing more ice time and having the benefit of playing on a line with superstar Artemi Panarin, Lafreniere is sure to see another improvement in his point totals for the 2023-24 season.

When Lafreniere first entered the league, he was immediately a fan favorite – and still is. His Young Guns card, often referred to as “the Covid card” was the chase card of the 2020-21 season. In fact, according to Cardladder, nearly two years ago on Oct. 26, 2021, his PSA 10 sold for $555. The hype for Lafreniere was real. However, the on-ice performance for Laffy hasn’t lived up to the hype – leaving many collectors unhappy and selling at a loss. Today, that same card is selling for $101.

But this is good news for savvy hockey card collectors.

The Rangers' new head coach Peter Laviolette has built a reputation around getting the most of and developing his young talent. Rangers fans witnessed several flashes of Lafreniere’s talents throughout his career with highlight-reel goals and assists. From winning Gold at the World Junior’s and breaking some of Sidney Crosby’s records in the QMJHL, the hype has always surrounded Lafreniere.

Despite the lackluster results in the point column, he’s remained a fan favorite and has recently been promoted to the second line where he’s seeing more point opportunities playing with Artemi Panarin. Match that with playing in front of one of the largest hockey markets in the world, one could argue Lafrienere’s Young Guns is currently undervalued.

Expect a breakout season and a jump in prices from Lafreniere in 2023-24.

Buy: Josh Norris

The offensively gifted Ottawa Senators Center provides us with a great example of ‘out of sight, out of mind’, which is just another fancy way to say he’s a good option to ‘buy low and sell high’. After only playing in 8 games in 2022-23, many collectors have forgotten about Norris, resulting in a 47% price drop in his raw, ungraded rookie card in the last year, according to Cardladder.

In the last 2 years, his raw Young Guns card is down 44.5%, down 47% in the last year, and down 22.7% in the last month.

It wasn’t too long ago the now 24-year-old was able to notch 35 goals. Match this with the Senators having a deep lineup of highly skilled forwards and you got yourself a buying opportunity.

Buy: Gabe Vilardi

There’s an opportunity to buy when players get injured. Sure, there’s typically a risk that comes with this but Vilardi is expected to only miss 2-3 weeks. Recently traded to the Winnipeg Jets and already creating chemistry with Connors and Schiefele, Vilardi is poised to create scoring opportunities.

His raw, ungraded Young Guns are currently down 63.65% in the last year while his PSA 10 is down 71.95%.

The now 24-year-old has been a great scoring option in the OHL and has even found success with the Kings. Now matched with like-minded forwards playing on the top line and receiving powerplay time, Vilardi looks to be a buy.

Buy: Jason Robertson

It’s not too often a player scores back-to-back 40-goal seasons in the NHL. However, it’s now clear that Jason Robertson is a goal scorer and here to stay. Despite being in a lackluster market like Dallas, Robertson continues to show he’s one of the league’s best goal-scorers.

Although he’s proven to have on-ice success, his raw, ungraded Young Guns card is currently down 24.71% in the last month, according to Cardladder. Despite only having a single goal in the young season, Robertson has a respectable 6 points in 7 games.

According to Marketmovers, his PSA 10 Young Guns is down 39.9% in the last 30 days, having last sold for $121 on Oct. 29. This is a crazy good buying opportunity if you believe in Robertson.

Hold: Jake Oettinger

The Stars goaltender is a great example of how having a hot stretch in the playoffs can make a card get red-hot. It’s no secret goalies don’t get the love they deserve in the hockey card market and that’s exactly why collectors should think twice before buying Oettingers Young guns.

On the flip side of the same coin, the young netminder holds an impressive 82-34 win-loss record in the NHL. According to Cardladder, his raw, ungraded Young Guns card is up 278% in the last 2 years but down 58% in the last year.

According to Marketmovers, the same card in PSA 10 is also up 35.6% in the last month, having most recently sold for $125.50 on Oct. 30.

If you’re lucky enough to hold one of his cards, enjoy the ride. Don’t panic sell and maybe don’t buy unless the price is too good to pass up. Hold the card.

Buy: Kirill Kaprizov

Despite being one of the game's best goal scorers since entering the league, Kaprizov's card prices have fallen off a cliff. According to Cardladder, his raw, ungraded Young Guns card is down 54.3% in the last 2 years and down 53% in the last year. The same thing can be said about his PSA 10, which is down 72% in the last 2 years and down 53.25% in the last year.

Even if we move that scope closer and examine the last month, the card prices are still down. Data shows his raw, ungraded Young Guns is down 39% while his PSA 10 is down 16%.

The Kaprizov market won’t always be so dry. One of the league's best, his card prices will be sure to rise in price once again. Currently a point-per-game player with 9 points in as many games, Kaprizov is a buy with his PSA 10 having most recently sold for $158 on Oct. 30, according to Marketmovers.

Buy: Tim Stutzle

The German-born goalscorer is undoubtedly off to the best start in the entire draft class. However, much like Kaprizv, despite being able to rack up the points, his card prices remain down. In the last year, his PSA 10 Young Guns is down 26.5% according to Cardladder, while in the last month, the same card is still down 16%.

At just 21 years of age, Stutzle has already enjoyed a handful of great years in the league and is only getting better. After scoring 39 goals a year ago, Stutzle continues his exceptional play with 10 points in 8 games. There’s little to no reason for the price drop inStutzle Young Guns card. As the Senators continue to figure out how to win hockey games and Stutzle’s game continues to become more and more elite, card collectors should consider capitalizing on the lower prices before it’s too late.

Sell: Joseph Woll

Words cannot express how important it is for collectors to capitalize on hype in the hockey card market. Playing for the largest and most passionate hockey card market in the world, owners of Joseph Woll’s Young Guns cards should act quickly.

Having recently been the go-to goalie for the Leafs, Woll’s Young Guns cards have seen a rise in price after starting the season 3-1. Many believe he will be the next superstar and help the Leafs en route to getting past the second round of playoffs. As a result, his Young Guns card is up 815% all-time, 1,073% in the last year, and up 87% in the last month.

While the card prices are on the rise, it’s time to act quickly and sell. As quickly as the card prices rose, they can dive even quicker. Sure, it’s understandable to want to hold or even buy and hope his card prices rise, I get it. The kid is on a great team and is off to an electrifying 12-3 start to his career. There are many things to like about him. However, goalies simply do not retain value in the hobby. The same card you’re holding onto will drop down in price soon enough and collectors will be able to pick it back up for even cheaper just a couple months down the road.

Time to sell on the hype.

Hold: Connor McMichael

The jury is still out on McMichael. What type of player will he become? What is he capable of?

According to Marketmovers, his PSA 10 Young Guns is down 53.9% in the last month. The same card, but in the raw, ungraded condition, according to Cardladder is down 45.27% in the last month. It’s no secret the card is down and while it’s only selling for a few dollars, buyers beware.

Not only are the Washington Capitals playing dreadful hockey as of late, McMichael is also in the shadows of legendary goalscorer Alex Ovechkin. As the 'Great-Eight' continues his quest to take down Wayne Gretzky’s goal-scoring record, McMichael will continue to be in the shadows, out of sight and out of mind for many card collectors.

Sure, the kid has talent and we can see a rise in his Young Guns prices eventually, but for now, if you own a card, hold it. If you don’t own a card, by the same token, you may not be missing much. When it comes to McMichaels, staying put is the way to go.

Hold: Nick Robertson

It’s always tricky to play buy/sell/hold when a player is young, has offensive upside, and plays for the largest and arguably most passionate and loyal fanbase in the world.

Nick Robertson has always shown flashes of potential and many believe he belongs in the NHL and will be a great player for years to come. However, Robertson has still only logged 31 career games in the NHL and at least for the time being, he looks to remain a Marlie in the AHL.

According to Marketmovers, Robertson’s PSA 10 Young Guns last sold for $39.99 on Oct. 18, which is down 22.8% in a 3-month span. It’s not to say his card price will continue to drop or even rise again if and when he gets the call-up to rejoin the Leafs.

Robertson, at least for the time being, remains a hold. He has the skill, but only time will tell if and when he re-joins the Leafs. Even then, he will also need to score to provide value to buyers. There are simply too many question marks around this card. Hold.

Hold: Ilya Sorokin

As mentioned previously, goaltenders don’t get the love they deserve in the hobby. But what happens when you have a goalie that many believe is elite? Well, it’s tricky. Ilya Sorokin came in with a lot of hype. Still, three years later, many believe he’s elite while many believe at 28 years of age, he’s all but done.

Regardless, Sorokin is playing for the wrong New York team. Sure the market is large, but the Rangers seem to garner more buyers and sellers in the market, meaning his cards may take more time to find a buyer in order to sell.

In the last 2 years, Sorokin’s Young Guns cards have been on a wild roller coaster ride according to Cardladder graphs. His card ranged from as low as 99 cents to as high as $23.

Having his raw, ungraded card last sold for $7.19 on Oct. 30, it’s unclear whether the play is to buy or sell with Sorokin. For the time being, hold his cards if you have them and wait for a clearer picture if you want to buy them later on.

Hold: Dylan Cozens

The Buffalo Sabres hockey card market is intriguing but difficult to read if I’m being honest. It’s for that reason why I’m hesitant with Cousin’s Young Guns. Perhaps when the Sabres make the playoffs we will all get a clearer picture, but even superstars like Jack Eichel didn’t always receive hobby love.

According to Cardladder, Cousin’s raw, ungraded Young Guns has been up 97.36% in the last 2 years and up 292% in the last year. While seeing a great uptick in his prices, Cousins cards eventually were met with the Buffalo market reality and soon began to level out before taking a dip. In the last month, that same card has dropped 35.46%.

Still only 22 years old, it’s clear that Cousins is talented and can rack up more 30+ goal seasons during his career. However, even if he does, I’m simply not sure if the market will follow and begin to show him love. Despite winning a Stanley Cup and getting out of Buffalo, Jack Eichel’s PSA 10 Young Guns is down 7.39% since it was first released in 2016.

The point is, this could be another situation of the Buffalo curse. If you own a Cousins Young Guns, congratulations, it’s a sweet card to own. However, there’s no clear sign as to whether or not the time is right to buy or sell.