Buy, Sell, Hold: Capitalizing on slow starts to the season

More than a dozen games into the 2023-2024 NHL season, we now have a clearer picture and understanding of what teams and players are off to a good start. While some players have performed at a point-per-game pace or better, others have fallen off the map. This may be the perfect opportunity to scoop up some cards at a lower price to eventually flip and sell at a high. One man’s trash is another man’s treasure.

But not always.

Investing in players who are off to a slow start could be your smart investment move. On the flip side of the coin, some players, despite their slow starts, aren’t losing significant value. Some players might even be considered a hold. Then too, there are players who are now giving collectors enough data to say it’s time to sell and move on.

Is it time to buy, sell, or hold? Let’s dive in!

Buy: Trevor Zegras (Two points in 12 games)

Trevor Zegras has been forgotten by a lot of collectors with the slow start he’s been having. The 22-year-old has one goal and one assist for two points in 12 games to start the season. Not ideal. The slow play has translated into a crash in his Young Guns price as well. According to Marketmovers, his PSA 10 Young Guns card is currently selling for $115, a decrease of 18.7% in the last month.

Despite the slow start, and now finding himself on the IR, Zegras should be viewed as a buy. Yes, that can be quite confusing, but hear me out. Zegras is the kid who’s loaded with highlight reel potential and he’s already got a series of Michigan goals and flashy plays. Whenever this happens, collectors flock to the stores and online to buy Zegras cards. The American doesn’t need to perform a whole lot better for prices to start rising from here. Currently slotted on the top line with Leo Carlsson and Troy Terry, one could imagine the points will come soon enough for Zegras.

At this current price, there’s an opportunity to buy low and sell high with not too much risk of Zegras becoming a total bust.

Buy: Matty Beniers (one goal in 16 games)

Beniers is ice cold. There’s no other way to justify it as he’s currently in a “Sophomore slump”, on pace for just 35 points. Coming off a season in which he won the NHL Calder Award as the league’s best rookie, more is expected from Beniers.

Let’s also be super clear – goals are king in the hockey card market. The more he continues to not score, the less desirable he will become from a value standpoint.

As a result of Benier’s slow start, his PSA 10 Young Guns card has fallen 26.7% in the last month, according to Marketmovers. The card can now be acquired for $96, which is right around what his card was selling for raw and ungraded at one point last year.

Centering the Kraken’s top line, it’s inevitable that Beniers will start to pick up the points. Collectors will want to see goals, however, but taking into factor the eye test, as well as past history, we can get a pretty good idea that the 21-year-old won’t have much issue lighting the lamp soon enough.

Whether it be playing for the U.S. National team or for the Wolverines, Beniers has always performed at a high level. There’s a buying opportunity here.

Sell: Kaapo Kakko (two points in 14 games)

Now in his 5th NHL season, many are starting to lose their patience with the former #2 overall pick. It doesn’t help that his play to start the season indicates anything but him turning things around. Despite being slotted on the top line with Chris Kreider and Mika Zibanejad to start the season, the Finnish could only garner two points in 11 games while playing on the first line. As a result, he’s since been demoted to the third line where it most certainly will be more difficult to rack up points as he will be embracing a grinder role.

In 253 career games, Kakko has just 100 points and 45 goals. The development has been slow and there’s little to no indication that he will turn things around any time soon. He will likely continue to remain on the third line as Vincent Trochek has performed extremely well having taken over the 2C role for injured Filip Chytil. The point is, Kakko won’t be seeing top-six minutes for a while.

According to Cardladder, Kaako’s raw, ungraded Young Guns is down a whopping 66.3% in the past 30 days. It’s a clear indicator that while many were optimistic and hopeful for a breakout season, they now have given up and moved on, allowing for his card prices to fall. People are starting to move on to other projects – maybe you should too.

It may not be much at the last sold price of $6.14, but now might be the time to get something for Kakko’s rookie card. The trend for Kakko is on the decline and there’s little to no evidence to suggest he will turn things around any time soon.

Meanwhile, Kakko’s PSA 10 Young Guns is only down 3.6% in the same time span as its most recent sale was $54 on Nov. 10, according to Marketmovers.

It might be time to sell before this card becomes worthless.

Hold: Johnny Gaudreau (one goal in 15 games)

The man they once called “Johnny Hockey” is having the start of a season he probably wishes he could forget. Having recorded 115 points just two seasons ago, the current six points in 15 games is underwhelming, to say the least for Gaudreau.

Taking a dive into Gaudreau’s card prices over the last year, six months, three months, and a current standpoint, we can see at the high, his PSA 10 Young Guns was selling for $152 (Jan 5, 2023) and $62.51 at the lowest (May 7, 2023). It’s been good news for Gaudreau collectors in the last 6 months, however, as data from CardLadder shows his card has been up 15%. In fact, it’s even better over the past 3 months as the same card is up 62.44%.

Now having last sold for $109, Gaudreau’s card prices are starting to level out once again. It’s a long-term play with Gaudreau, now age 30, and playing in a weaker Columbus market.

Gaudreau enjoys tons of ice time playing on the top line, as well as being a lethal option on the Bluejacket’s top powerplay line. Goal scorers score. Gaudreau will pull through and the points will come.

As a result, collectors shouldn’t be jumping through hoops to buy or sell this card, but if you already own one, perhaps holding onto it is not such a bad idea.

Buy: Jonathan Huberdeau: (two goals in 14 games)

Since becoming a Calgary Flame, Huberdeau’s numbers have taken a dip. Considering Huberdeau raked up 115 points in the 2021-22 season, his two goals in 14 games to start the season is nothing short of disappointing.

The 30-year-old is currently on pace for 41 points. Due to the slow start, his Young Guns cards in PSA 10 format are down 62% in the past year. But that’s not all bad news if you’re a savvy collector. If you take a closer look, the card is actually beginning to recover as it’s down 42% in the last six months, down 30% in the last three months, and even in the last 30 days.

The same card in raw, ungraded condition is down 6% in the last month, having most recently sold for $36 on Nov. 12, according to Marketmovers. With a PSA 10 currently selling for $57.99, in comparison to the value of the same card in raw format, now might be the time to scoop up a Huberdeau card.

On Nov. 15, 2022, Huberdeau’s PSA 10 Young Guns were selling for $153.50. Not to say the card price will jump back to that price, however, at just under $60, Huberdeau seems like a great buy at the moment.

Capitalize on the slow start.

Buy: Juraj Slafkovsky (One goal in 15 games)

Having only played in 54 career NHL games and being just 19 years old, it’s understandable the former #1 overall pick is still a work in progress. However, collectors in the hockey card world tend to get impatient. With Slaf’s slow start of one goal and one assist in 15 games, collectors are already to sell off. This has resulted in his PSA 10 Young Guns having most recently sold for $117 on Nov 2, 2023.

The slow start has resulted in this Young Guns card dropping a total of 37.9% in the last 30 days. While the play has been dreadful, the Montreal Canadiens market alone, mixed with the fact he’s a #1 overall pick and still only 19 years of age will keep this card price afloat, meaning it won’t drop much lower, if at all.

Considering his raw, ungraded Young guns had sold for $60 in October, purchasing a PSA 10 for this price might be the best bang for the buck. If Slafkovsky lives up to the hype, he will be heavily collected by the passionate and loyal Original Six fanbase.

Hold: Dawson Mercer (Two points in 13 games)

Coming off a good season in which he raked up 27 goals and 56 points at the age of 21, it’s hard to believe Mercer has been so ice-cold to start the 2023-24 campaign. But, the numbers don’t lie and Mercer has just one goal this season, despite being the Devil's second Center.

Now, it’s true, Mercer is not benefiting from a lethal powerplay as he’s also headlining the second unit, but there’s still reason to believe Mercer will turn things around soon enough. With Nico Hischier and Jack Hughes having recently been out with upper body injuries, Mercer was finally able to capitalize and score his first of the season. It seems when the opportunities present themselves, Mercer makes the most of his opportunities.

Having had a good season just one year ago, scoring nearly 30 goals at such a young age, there are plenty of reasons to believe he will turn his season around. It also doesn’t hurt playing with Meier and Palat.

This card certainly won’t make you rich even if it does see a rise in price. With that said, according to Marketmovers, his Young Guns has recently seen a gain in value. His raw, ungraded Young Guns is now up 23.4% over the last month, currently selling for $11.53. Meanwhile, his PSA 10 Young Guns card is down 40% in the last month.

For the time being, until there’s a clearer picture with Mercer, the play is to hold and wait it out.

Sell: Dylan Guenther (Currently in AHL)

Ok, so let’s be ultra clear here…Dylan Guetner is not off to a slow start whatsoever. In fact, he’s having himself a wonderful start having recorded 11 points in as many games. The issue? He’s been in the AHL all season with the Tuscon Roadrunners. There’s no reason to panic whatsoever if you’re a fan of Guenther and are playing the long game. He’s only 20 years old and the coyotes are getting better and better.

Typically, playing in the AHL would make a player be out of sight and out of mind and their card prices would take a dive as a result. However, Marketmovers data shows Guenther’s AHL play has been enough to keep his Young Guns card prices afloat. In the past month, despite not even playing in the NHL, Guenther’s Young Guns card is up 31.8%. However, the same card in PSA 10 format is down 423.2% in that time span, most recently selling for $61.43.

Coyotes fans are excited for him to get the call-up once again as he notched 15 points in 33 career NHL games last year. While one could argue Guenther eventually becomes a “buy”, timing is key here. Take advantage of this card being on the rise and sell. He can always be acquired at a later date.

Sell: Juuse Saros (4-8, 3.24 GAA, 0.894%)

This list would feel incomplete without a goaltender. Who better to include on this list than Saros? For the past few seasons, he’s been considered by many to be one of the top goalies in the NHL. But this season, Saros has statistically been one of the worst. His 3.24 GAA ranked 40th and his .905 save percentage is 39th.

Despite the slow start to the season, Saros’ PSA 10 Young Guns is actually up 37.1% in the last 30 days, according to Marketmovers. That card sold on Nov 3, 2023 for $65.27.

For a quickly aging goaltender who continues to look shaky in goal, this might be the best opportunity collectors will have to sell and get a good chunk of change in return. But act quick, as Saros’ raw, ungraded Young Guns is down 45.8% in the past month, indicating his PSA 10 could just as easily start to decrease in value.