Sports Card Investing: Population Count Explained and What it Means to You
Advantages of investing in cards with low and high population counts.
Sports Card Investing: Population Count Explained and What it Means to YouPopulation count, commonly referred to as "POP count" is a term that accounts for the number of graded cards with the same score. For today's article, we will reference
Professional Sports Authenticator (PSA) scores.
The Connor Bedard Young Guns rookie card from 2023-24 Upper Deck Series Two is one of the hottest cards in the entire sports card industry. Collectors and breakers are pulling hundreds of Bedard Young Guns on a daily basis, with many being submitted to PSA for grading.
There have been just over 6,000 Bedard Young Guns that have been given a PSA 9 or PSA 10 grade since the product was released on Mar. 6, 2024. "Population" stands for the number of cards that were entered into the search engine and "Population Higher" stands for the number of cards that have a score that his higher than a PSA 9. Please note that PSA does not do half scoring for PSA 9 and above.
To look up the POP count for a PSA graded card, click here and enter the certification number on the right side of the PSA label.
Okay, we need to go back to the fact that over 6,000 Bedard Young Guns were issued PSA 9 or PSA 10 scores in the last 80 days. That means on average 75 new Bedard Young Guns with a score of PSA 9 or PSA 10 are hitting the market on a daily basis. Keep in mind that we are not accounting for the number of Bedard Young Guns that have a score of PSA 8.5 and below. Please also keep in mind that we are not referencing other grading companies like Beckett Card Grading Service (BGS) and Sportscard Guaranty Corporation (SGC).
There are well over 10,000 graded Bedard Young Guns in circulation. That is an incredible number for a product that was released nearly three months ago.
What Does the POP Report Mean to You?
The POP report is your competition when it comes to buying and selling cards. A card with a high POP count, like the Bedard Young Guns, is commonly traded on a daily basis on eBay. It is easy to determine a value by averaging the last three to five sales.
Cards with high POP counts can be a double-edged sword for both buyer and seller. Sellers can attempt to hold out for their asking price for a hot card with a high POP count. Buyers can capitalize on the fact that many sellers are attempting to sell the same card. There is a reasonable chance a seller may consider taking 80%-90% of recent comps because there is high competition to sell the card.
The Young Guns Outburst parallel can be found in 1:60 Hobby packs. There are 50 different Young Guns cards. The odds of hitting a Bedard Young Guns Outburst parallel are 1:3,000 hobby packs. For comparison, the odds of hitting the base Bedard Young Guns is 1:100 Hobby packs.
As a result, the POP counts for the Bedard Outburst parallel are significantly lower.
There are 5,959 less PSA 9 and PSA 10 Bedard Young Gun parallels than base Young Guns in circulation.
Things to Factor
Remember, the POP count is your competition. Should you invest in cards with high or low POP counts? The answer is both. High POP count cards can be moved quickly as there will always be a buyer that is willing to pay near the full comp value of a card.
Low POP cards are nice to have because the seller can ultimately determine the value for the card. There are less sales to compare the card to. It is also likely that there are not many similar cards available for sale. The seller can take the approach of, "Yesterday's price is not today's price."
Happy hunting and collecting!