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The GR8 Goal Watch—Sept 9, 2024 - VOL. 78, Issue. 02 - Jared Clinton

IT MIGHT HAVE BEEN the time in early February when Alex Ovechkin, from his office atop the left-wing circle, hammered a carbon-copy one-timer past Sergei Bobrovsky. Or perhaps it was Ovechkin’s two-goal game against the New Jersey Devils near the end of the same month. For the skeptic, maybe it took until the slick deke he tucked home – his second marker of a pair of tallies and eighth in five games – against the Winnipeg Jets in late March. But at some point, the conversation surrounding ‘The Great Eight’ and his pursuit of Wayne Gretzky’s NHL record of 894 goals transformed from a question of “if” to one of “when.”

Make no mistake, there were doubts through a significant portion of last season, almost entirely spurred by Ovechkin’s eight-goal production through 40 games. It took a whiplash-inducing turnaround in the second half, which saw the Washington Capitals captain pot 23 goals in the final 39 games of the season, to erase those concerns. And now, all that stands between Ovechkin and the all-time mark is 41 goals – or 42 if you’re counting the tally that will give him sole possession of No. 1 on the list.

Thus, we enter the coming campaign considering not his ability to catch and ultimately surpass Gretzky but whether he can do so this season.

To some, it seems inconceivable that Ovechkin, on the cusp of his 39th birthday, will manage to hit that mark in 2024-25. This is despite the fact he scored as many – and exactly as many – just two years ago. Invariably, those with doubts will point to the first half of last season. Fair enough. It is, however, worth noting just how jarringly unlucky one of the greatest shooters of his or any generation was when some were writing off his pursuit of the NHL’s all-time goal mark.

Entering last season, Ovi owned a career 12.9 shooting percentage. But as the goal droughts added up during the beginning of the campaign – including one painful 14-game goalless stretch, unsurprisingly the longest of his career – Ovechkin watched his success rate plummet. Prior to scoring his ninth goal last season, when the worm started to turn, Ovechkin had a pedestrian 5.4 shooting percentage. At the time, it was the second-lowest rate among any forward with at least 100 shots. But much like water, goal-scorers have a tendency to find level, and Ovechkin shot 18.4 percent over the final 36 games. In that span, he had the NHL’s fifth-best shooting percentage. This is to say that, if given his chances, even an aged Ovechkin is bankable to convert the way he always has.

Maybe, then, it’s the fact those chances have been slowly disappearing that should be the real cause for concern.

Though the decline hasn’t been incremental, the trend over the past several seasons is evident: Ovechkin is getting fewer pucks on net each season. Three of his five lowest-volume shooting seasons, as measured by shots per game, have come in the past four years, and last season saw his lowest mark yet, as Ovechkin averaged 3.44 shots per game. And this isn’t a matter of being an inch wide here or there. Ovechkin’s 7.66 shot attempts per game last season were the second-fewest in his NHL career. Here’s where it should be noted he’s not scored 40-plus goals in any season in which he’s averaged fewer than four shots or 7.9 shot attempts per game.

ALL THAT STANDS BETWEEN OVECHKIN AND THE ALL-TIME RECORD IS 41 GOALS

There is, however, the matter of the power play, where Ovechkin can be at his lethal best and perhaps feast en route to the record. He tied for 14th last season with 13 power-play goals, and his 18.2 shots per 60 minutes ranked 15th among skaters to play at least 50 minutes on the man advantage. But even there lies some worry.

Last season, power-play chances somewhat dried up for Ovechkin – not because he wasn’t the focal point of the power play, which he was and will remain, but because Washington struggled to generate chances. The Capitals had the fourth-fewest power plays last season, perhaps unsurprising given Washington was among the league’s weakest possession teams. If that trend continues, it will limit one of Ovechkin’s greatest goal sources.

Much of this, though, disregards improvements made around Ovechkin, as the Capitals had among the most transformative off-seasons of any team in the league. The roster was bolstered by the additions of blueliners Jakob Chychrun and Matt Roy, while Andrew Mangiapane and Pierre-Luc Dubois can be impact players up front. A deeper, deadlier lineup can juice the power play, tilt the ice in the Caps’ favor with greater frequency and add a dash of playmaking from which Ovechkin can benefit. That said, it likewise excludes myriad factors beyond his control, positive and negative, such as health, ice time, empty-net opportunities and more.

But if it’s all a matter of will he or won’t he, the safer bet appears to lie on the latter – at least in the season ahead. Because while the all-time mark might be all semantics for some, as Ovechkin is already considered in some corners the greatest goal-scorer the league has ever seen, it does appear only a matter of time before a new record-holder is crowned.