Three Key Oilers Likely to Face Offensive Regression in 2024-25

On a team full of players who had career years, not everyone can maintain their scoring pace. Which Oilers might see an offensive dip in 2024-25?

A challenge for a team that excelled offensively with multiple players hitting career highs is the increased risk of regression. This might be the situation for the Edmonton Oilers, who, while still expected to be a dynamic scoring force, could see some players experience a decline in 2024-25. 

This is not to say these players will be shells of their former selves, or even bad. They just might need to adjust their games to fit a team system, or they hit such a high mark the season before, that it's unlikely to happen again. 

Before diving into the players who could potentially regress, let’s first consider those who are unlikely to see their numbers decline. 

For players like Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, you never want to bet against them doing what they did the season before or better. McDavid scored 132 points and Draisaitl 106. It seems wild to suggest they have another level, but this kind of production has become the norm. 

Both McDavid and Draisaitl actually saw a reduction from their totals in the 2022-23 season. For McDavid, he scored 153 points in 82 games, while Draisaitl's 106 was a drop from 128. For both players, a refocusing on the 200-foot game likely explains some of that regression. 

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is probably also going to see a slight increase. Following a 104-point season in 2022-23, his point total dropped to 67 in 2023-24. The reality is, he's probably somewhere in between these two numbers. A 75 to 80-point season shouldn't shock anyone. 

Moving onto those who may not be so fortunate, here are the players who are likely to see their numbers decline: 

Zach Hyman has improved his goal totals every season since joining the Oilers. That said, it seems fair to suggest that his 54 goals last season and 16 in the playoffs were a potential outlier, or at the very least, it might be the height of his capabilities. 

This isn't to suggest that Hyman hasn't learned how to score and score often, but a 40 to 45-goal season might be more realistic than another 54-goal campaign. 

Hyman certainly has the tools to do it again, but it's hard to top what he did in 2023-24. Expect a slight drop.

With 32 points in 25 playoff games, it's the post-season that should have fans wondering if Bouchard can hit the same levels in 2024-25 that he did during the Oilers' magical run to the Stanley Cup Final. Bouchard was mentioned in the same conversation as Paul Coffey last season and if anyone can hit a point-per-game repeatedly, it's someone who matched and beat Coffey's numbers. That said, one has to wonder if that was a one-time deal. 

Bouchard's playoff performance was incredible, but his 82 points in 81 regular season games were also outstanding. In both cases, it was also a very high bar when a lot was riding on him producing well to get a huge contract extension. 

Adam Henrique scored 24 goals last season, split between the Oilers and the Anaheim Ducks. He's been an on-again, off-again 20-goal guy throughout his career, but he agreed to stay on with the Oilers this summer and take on what is expected to be a lesser role. He wants to win and sees it's possible in Edmonton with the right group of stars. As versatile as Henrique is, he is probably not the guy Edmonton will be looking to as a top-scoring threat. 

If Henrique becomes a third-line guy on a deep Oilers roster, he'll still get his opportunities. However, 24 goals might be asking a bit much when his minutes will significantly drop. He went from 17:35 per game with the Ducks to 14:50 with the Oilers. It will be more of the latter, not the former in 2024-25.