Connor McDavid's the favorite to win the Rocket Richard Trophy in 2022-23, but who's most likely to overtake him in goals scored?
With the 2022-23 NHL season entering the second half, it’s a good time to see where we’re at in the betting markets. A lot has changed since the puck first dropped in early October, including the emergence of Tage Thompson as an elite No. 1 center, Erik Karlsson’s renaissance season and the Panthers and Flames both coming out as losers (this season, anyway) following their blockbuster trade.
Hockey can be a tough sport to bet on due to its inherent randomness. It’s a sport played on ice with boots with sharp blades attached underneath while blasting a piece of vulcanized rubber that can travel upwards of 100 m.p.h. with sticks made of carbon fiber. The puck can bounce in all sorts of ways, injuries and fatigue are common, and year-to-year production can depend on luck.
Here are your betting favorites, along with some insights from BetMGM Sportsbook and some dark horse picks.
Ticket% refers to the percentage of all bets placed on a certain player, Handle% refers to the percentage of all money bet on a certain player and biggest liability refers to the player who has been bet on the most in terms of total money.
Betting odds and numbers are as of Jan. 12, 2023. Please gamble responsibly.
Rocket Richard Trophy
Highest Ticket%: Connor McDavid, 24.5 percent
Highest Handle%: Connor McDavid, 33.2 percent
Biggest Liabilities: Connor McDavid
Odds Leaders: Connor McDavid +170, David Pastrnak +250, Tage Thompson +325
Opening Odds Leaders: Auston Matthews +225, Leon Draisaitl +450, Alex Ovechkin/Kirill Kaprizov +1000
Of the five awards for which odds were provided – Hart, Norris, Vezina and Calder being the others – the “Rocket” Richard might be the most wide-open and fun to watch. For one thing, there’s no debate about how voters will decide the winner. It’s simply whoever scores the most goals, period.
Unlike the Art Ross race, where McDavid is ahead by a significant margin, McDavid has only a four-goal lead over Pastrnak (33), and Thompson (31) is right behind him. Then there are many others lurking in the shadows with Jason Robertson (29) and Alex Ovechkin (30). (Sorry, Bo Horvat).
Goal scoring can happen in bunches, and it might just come down to the wire. It also tends to be easier to predict because shooting stats are one of the most tracked in the league, and season over season, there’s always the same core of players who have a shot at winning.
It takes talent and a special type of player who never sees a shooting lane he doesn’t like, and there aren’t many of those. (McDavid’s kind of different because he gets a lot of breakaways, and he’s not dumb enough to pass it backwards.)
McDavid’s obviously the safest bet, but I think Pastrnak (fifth in Ticket% and Handle%) and Thompson (second in Ticket%, sixth in Handle%) also have really good chances to win.
Pastrnak gets the edge because he’s proven and plays on a better team, but Thompson just keeps scoring. All three players are averaging around 0.8 goals per game, putting them on pace for at least 60 goals. After that, the per-game production falls off the table to Horvat, Robertson and Mikko Rantanen at around 0.7 goals per game.
Despite having one goal less than Ovechkin, Robertson’s odds are getting worse, and he’s now at +2000, the same as Horvat. But I dare say Robertson’s the far better goal-scorer.
Horvat has had an incredible season, and I do think the floor for his goal scoring has been raised because his wrist shot is miles better than it’s ever been, but no one is going to mistake him for a top-tier sniper like Robertson. Robertson’s slowed down quite a bit, though – he scored 15 goals in 14 games in November but since then has scored 10 goals in 21 games.
This will also be a fun race to watch next season, considering Matthews is having an off-year. Matthews was the opening odds leader this season but now sits at +5000, tied with Kirill Kaprizov and Leon Draisaitl but behind the likes of Horvat (+2000) and William Nylander (+4000).
Aside from the obvious candidates in Matthews and McDavid, Thompson, Robertson and Rantanen will again be in the mix. Kirill Kaprizov, Kyle Connor and Cole Caufield might be dark horses, but they’re in the second tier. One player that could join the top tier next season is Jack Hughes, who’s on pace for 54 goals this season and shoots the puck a ton, though he’ll need to sharpen that shooting percentage.