John Tavares' Strong Play Makes It Harder For Maple Leafs To Give A Pay Cut

The Toronto Maple Leafs had a big night to continue a bigger season from star center John Tavares Thursday night in Manhattan. 

Tavares posted two goals and three points in the Leafs’ 4-3 victory over the New York Rangers, pushing Toronto to a three-game win streak and second place in the Atlantic Division. That brings Tavares up to 29 goals and 60 points in 62 games.

His strong season is evidence the pending UFA will make it harder for the Maple Leafs to ask to take a pay cut.

The 34-year-old has been a model of consistency, averaging nearly a point per game in his 16-season career. He recorded at least a point per game in five seasons, between 0.81 and 0.99 points per game in 10 other seasons, and 0.66 in his rookie campaign. He’s about as dependable as it gets, and although he won’t win any Art Ross Trophies as the NHL’s top point producer, Tavares can always be counted on to put up an above-average amount of offense.

The Maple Leafs have needed that consistency this season, as there have been some months when the squad struggled to produce an above-average amount of scoring. In November and January, they were in the lower half of the NHL in goals-for per game, but Tavares had a combined 14 points in 19 games during that time. The team still ranks ninth overall in goals-for per game across the season.

However, Tavares’ success will make it significantly more difficult to get his signature on a contract extension. 

Even with the notable rise in the salary cap ceiling starting next season, the Leafs must figure out a way to bring back superstar UFA right winger Mitch Marner and RFA left winger Matthew Knies, both of whom are younger than Tavares and likely more of a long-term priority.

Marner will get a major raise on his current salary of $10.9 million. Knies will also get far more than his current cap hit of $925,000. Given that the Leafs already have about $68 million in committed salaries for next season – and a cap ceiling of $95.5 million – that will leave about  $27.5 million to re-sign Marner, Knies and Tavares and fill out their roster.

For argument’s sake, let’s say Marner agrees to an extension that would pay him $13 million per season. Then, let’s say Knies signs a long-term deal that would bump up his salary to between $7 million and $8 million – for reference, Sportsnet’s Jason Bukala projected about $7.5 million annually if he re-signs for around five years, but AFP Analytics projected a cap hit of between $4 million and $6.6 million. That would leave only $6 million to $7.5 million to give to Tavares – a sizable pay cut from his current $11-million cap hit.

If Tavares’ impact waned this season, a big pay cut would be understandable. But that’s not the case. Asking him to take a pay cut of almost $5 million is not a reward for Tavares’ play. And even if Tavares did accept that kind of pay cut, Toronto still should give new contracts to at least UFA center Steven Lorentz and RFA left winger Nick Robertson. So, something’s got to give on the Leafs’ cap front.

Tavares admirably gave up the Leafs’ captaincy this season. But asking him to surrender many millions of dollars is another story altogether. It’s hard to envision he will happily give a huge hometown discount to the Leafs if it’s one of his final contracts. But there seems to be no other choice. Tavares could be the main victim of the cap crunch unless he tries to take less next season and more once the salary cap increases even more.

Every goal and point Tavares puts up this year will be manna from heaven for Toronto, but it could finalize a ticket out of town for him. It’s going to be a delicate salary cap balance for Leafs GM Brad Treliving, but there’s a very real possibility Tavares could be in the final season of playing for his beloved Maple Leafs.

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