Determining how well a player will perform in the NHL is a near-impossible task, but for the 32 NHL teams, it’s the reality they face on draft night. In today’s exercise, we look at the high-end and low-end comparables for five of the NHL’s top prospects in the 2026 draft.
With every NHL draft cycle, scouts and analysts look for ways to best compare the top upcoming talent to the current stars of the hockey world.
However, there’s no true science to it. Development in professional sports is unpredictable, and it can be difficult to find true one-to-one projections for players at such an early stage in their careers.
The 2026 NHL draft class features high-end prospects with the potential to alter the trajectory of a franchise’s future, but what happens if things don’t go as planned?
This exercise aims to find a best-case and worst-case projection for some of the best players from this year’s class in order to provide a better idea of what type of player they could become.
Gavin McKenna, LW
High-end Comparable: Nikita Kucherov
McKenna possesses the vision and playmaking ability that give him the highest offensive ceiling among all skaters in this class. In the right environment, he can develop into a perennial 100-point player with the ability to control the pace of play like Tampa Bay Lightning star Nikita Kucherov.
Low-end Comparable: Kent Johnson
Overall defensive commitment and being able to handle the physical tolls of a full NHL season will be the biggest questions about McKenna’s trajectory as a prospect. His high-end and low-end are big swings, but considering his offensive gifts, it’s difficult to imagine he becomes anything less than a strong second-line winger and power-play specialist in a worst-case scenario.
Ivar Stenberg, LW
High-end Comparable: Lucas Raymond
Stenberg is a highly creative and cerebral winger with a well-rounded two-way game that gives opposing teams nightmares. He has all the tools to be a top-line winger at the NHL level and could evolve into a dominant playoff performer with his competitive nature and winning pedigree.
Low-end Comparable: Artturi Lehkonen
The body of work that Stenberg has put together suggests that the floor of his projection won’t drop off as far as McKenna’s. Stenberg can still become an incredibly impactful presence, even if he ends up a 60-point player rather than an 80-point player, thanks to his off-puck habits and commitment to playing a winning style of hockey.
Chase Reid, D
High-end Comparable: Zach Werenski
Reid is one of this draft class’s biggest risers, and he also has the best chance to become a No. 1 defenseman. At his best, Reid controls the flow of the entire offense with his dynamic skating and vision, and has an impressive shot that beats goaltenders from distance. He plays with a ton of poise and could become a franchise’s cornerstone piece on the blueline.
Low-end Comparable: Mikhail Sergachev
While Reid’s offensive game is special, he hasn’t produced at the level of some previous high-end offensive-defensemen leading up to the draft. The process is borderline elite, but that’s what you’re betting on. There’s also a chance that his defensive game doesn’t round out enough to be trusted against the top matchups on a nightly basis, even though he’s taken major strides in that area this season.
Caleb Malhotra, C
High-end Comparable: Nico Hischier
Malhotra is a highly skilled center who flew up draft boards this year because of his ability to make creative plays with pace while showing a detailed, mature 200-foot game. He plays the type of style that coaches can trust, and even when his offense isn’t at its best, his ‘B’ game is better than most.
Low-end Comparable: Sean Couturier
Similar to Stenberg, Malhotra’s offensive game taking major strides would really just be a bonus on top of the package he already brings. It’s possible he doesn’t end up being a team’s top point producer, but what he provides in competitiveness and leadership can’t be understated. At worst, he projects as a second-line center.
Keaton Verhoeff, D
High-end Comparable: Thomas Harley
At 6-foot-4, 215 pounds, Verhoeff has the physical profile that NHL teams dream of having as a pillar on their blueline. He’s comfortable with the puck in tight spaces, isn’t afraid to activate in the offensive zone, and possesses a heavy shot. The combination of size and offensive instincts gives him the look of a modern top-pair defender with the proper development.
Low-end Comparable: Aaron Ekblad
Verhoeff is still a very raw prospect when it comes to the mechanics of his skating and his defending. Scouts and analysts have softened on Verhoeff and have come to doubt what his ceiling truly is, but even if things don’t progress as anticipated he is still very likely to become a top-four defender that can be trusted on both special teams units with his physical gifts.
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