The NHL’s upcoming group of unrestricted free agents isn’t especially deep, and with the rise of the salary cap ceiling to $95.5 million, there will be a temptation for some teams to splurge on UFAs. In certain cases, that will be justified, but in other cases, it’s going to be buyer beware.
For instance, Winnipeg Jets left winger Nikolaj Ehlers is coming off a regular season in which he posted 39 assists, matching his career-high, and 63 points (only one off his career-high from 2016-17) in only 69 games. The 29-year-old Dane made $6-million this year, and while the Jets have $25.46 million in cap space, we’re not sure they want to engage in a bidding war for Ehler’s services.
Indeed, although Ehlers put up five goals and seven points in eight playoff games this spring, his overall career post-season numbers dip significantly compared to his regular-season numbers. In 674 career regular-season games, Ehlers has 520 points for a point-per-game average of 0.77. However, in 45 career playoff games, Ehlers has produced only nine goals and 21 points, for a point-per-game average of 0.47.
Meanwhile, Ehlers’ health has also been problematic over the course of his 10-season NHL career, as he’s had just three seasons where he played 82 games, and he's played more than 69 games in just two other seasons. Clearly, if you’re looking for an Ironman candidate, you’re not getting one in Ehlers.
From this writer’s perspective, you’re better off avoiding Ehlers in favor of someone like Vancouver Canucks right winger Brock Boeser, who is a six-time scorer of 23 goals or more. And though Boeser has a more limited sample size in terms of playoff games played, he’s been considerably more dependable than Ehlers, posting 11 goals and 23 points in 29 post-season games.
As noted, the Jets have more than enough cap space to re-sign Ehlers, but after another season in which they couldn’t make a serious playoff run, is it really wise for Winnipeg GM Kevin Cheveldayoff to bring the entire cast of Jets characters back for another year? We’re not so sure about that. And if other teams come calling to ratchet up Ehlers’ asking price, it might be better for the Jets to let Ehlers leave and invest his cap space in a different player.
Cheveldayoff is well-known for doubling down on his core of players, but at some point, it’s got to be time to alter the chemical composition of his team, and that means being willing to let someone like Ehlers walk away. Ehlers may become a more reliable playoff performer with another team, but right now, he’s far from the most clutch competitor.
And if the Jets are intent on switching things up with their roster, bidding farewell to Ehlers might prove to be the smart move.
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