Lightning's Early Season Struggles Have Opened The Door For The Red Wings

One of the bigger surprises of the 2025-26 NHL regular season is the subpar play of the Tampa Bay Lightning.

The Lightning have gone 1-4-2 out of the starting blocks, including their current four-game losing streak in which they’ve been defeated by lesser-light teams in the Columbus Blue Jackets and Chicago Blackhawks. As a result, the Bolts sit dead last in the Eastern Conference. 

That’s about as much of a worst-case scenario as can be for a Tampa Bay team many observers thought could challenge for the top spot in the highly competitive Atlantic Division and in their conference.

Instead of fighting it out with the many Atlantic high-end teams, the Lightning are now fighting to keep their collective head above water and right the ship before it’s too late. Their poor start has opened the door for one specific team, the Detroit Red Wings, to burst through and end years of misery. 

There isn't one main problem for the Lightning. It has been a series of problems. In Tampa Bay’s first two games, defense was the team’s major malfunction, as they allowed five goals in each game. Then, after their lone win, a 4-3 victory over the Boston Bruins, Tampa Bay has dropped four games in a row. Those four defeats were all the result of a Lightning offense that could not get on track, generating just seven goals combined. So there’s real danger in Tampa Bay.

But in the zero-sum industry of the NHL, one Atlantic team’s suffering gives another team the opening it was looking for to set up a beachhead as they make a sustained playoff push. In the Atlantic, the Red Wings have surged through the ranks, currently sitting in second place and just two standings points behind the first-place Montreal Canadiens.  

This writer didn’t have the Red Wings as a Stanley Cup playoff team in his Atlantic pre-season predictions, and we’re still not fully convinced Detroit can sustain this degree of success. 

For instance, in Detroit’s five wins this year, they’ve produced 19 goals, which is nearly four goals per game. That’s a huge increase from the Red Wings’ 2.87 goals per-game average last season, so you have to be concerned that Detroit’s offense will regress in the games ahead. 

The Red Wings’ defense is still developing, as Detroit’s current goals-against average is 3.13, which is more or less the same as their 3.16 goals-against average last season. Those numbers were good enough to put them in the top half of the league in those departments, but clearly, there’s still plenty of room for significant improvement on the defensive side of things. 

If the Wings can figure out how to play well consistently, the Lightning won’t have an opening to get back into the playoff race. We’re fast-approaching the first full month of the season, and it’s safe to say many, if not most, observers didn’t see Detroit or Tampa Bay as being where they currently are in the standings. The Red Wings have been a positive surprise, while the Bolts have been a letdown. There’s likely going to be playoff space for one of the two teams, but probably not for both. 

The Lightning still have time to either turn things around before they miss the playoffs for the first time since 2016-17, just as the Wings still have time to either cement their hold on a playoff position and get into the post-season for the first time since 2016. The stakes are sky-high for Detroit and Tampa Bay, and while the challenges are different for the Lightning and Red Wings, both teams will be feeling the heat, all season long. 

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