Well before the Stanley Cup playoffs began, it was widely expected that Mitch Marner’s next contract would come with a raise from his current $10.9-million salary – not a pay cut, or even a repeat of the deal he’s had for the past six seasons.

So it should surprise no one that, after the Maple Leafs’ first-round win over the Ottawa Senators, Marner’s negotiating leverage has only risen in his favor. And it’s not just because Marner has produced at greater point-per-game pace, generating seven assists and eight points in six playoff games this spring. It also has to do with Marner’s excellent play on the defensive front.

The 27-year-old’s positional savvy has made Leafs coach Craig Berube comfortable playing him in all situations, and he has rewarded Berube’s trust in him by helping to limit the Senators’ offensive efforts.

So, with that knowledge on the record, let’s talk about what salary Marner is likely to be making next season – whether that’s as a Leaf, or as a member of a different team. A recent example of a high-end, younger winger still very much in his prime, like Marner, is Dallas Stars winger Mikko Rantanen, who recently signed a contract extension that will pay the 28-year-old $12 million per season beginning next year.

Factoring in Texas’ no-tax situation, Rantanen’s salary next season translates to somewhere in the area of $14 million in the Toronto market.

If that sounds like sticker shock to you, consider that the NHL’s salary cap ceiling will be rising exponentially in the coming seasons, from a ceiling of $88 million in the current season, to $95.5 million next season, and $104 million in the 2026-27 campaign. The inflation of the cap ceiling makes it only natural, then, that player salaries are also going to rise notably. 

So the question then becomes, are the Maple Leafs willing to pay Marner $750,000 per season more than Toronto’s current highest-paid player, superstar center Auston Matthews? The Leafs' captain is under contract through the 2027-28 season at $13.25 million per year, so it isn’t a case of Marner potentially making more than Matthews for just one or two seasons. It’s a full three seasons that Marner would be Toronto’s highest-paid player, and the optics of that may not sit well with Matthews and his representatives. 

With that said, the main issue could become whether Marner will be happy making the same salary as Matthews, with the knowledge that Marner is likely to sign a seven-or-eight-year contract. By the time Marner’s contract extension ends, Matthews may be earning somewhere in the area of $14-15-million per year, which would make a Marner extension at $13.25-million relatively pale in comparison for the last few years of his extension.

It’s that type of internal team politics that’s the great unknown with Marner’s potential new deal. If he doesn’t mind being second banana financially to Matthews, then getting Marner to sign an extension shouldn’t be a major problem at all. However, if Marner’s goal is to get as much money as he can – as much money as other teams will be willing to give him – that’s where things could get sticky and where talks between Marner and the Leafs could eventually break down. 

And let’s bear in mind – if the Leafs can get Marner to sign for a couple million less than what he could be getting elsewhere, that couple million could be the difference between Toronto acquiring high-end talent to supplement the Leafs’ roster or not. But that may ultimately be immaterial to Marner’s financial interests. Marner and his camp may be perfectly willing to allow the Leafs’ financial picture to continue to be particularly top-heavy. These are the great unknowns at the moment.

We know Marner is going to get a significant raise – at least 20 percent more than he’s presently making. There will be no shortage of teams not named the Maple Leafs who will be lining up to propose that type of raise to Marner, so we know for certain Marner will be making much more next season than what he’s making right now. The main issue is whether or not the Leafs are prepared to upset their internal financial apple cart to, at least for the short term, satisfy Marner’s potentially extra-large financial asking price.

If you’re a Leafs fan who has been happy with the way Marner has responded to the pressures of playing in a high-stakes first round, you may say that money should be no object to keeping Marner in the Blue and White. But if things were that simple, Marner would’ve already signed an extension. So the waiting game is almost certainly going to continue to be played until such time as one side relents. And that won’t happen for at least a handful of weeks, if not months.

Thus, a fair reading of the tea leaves makes it clear that the game of financial 'chicken' between Marner and the Leafs is very much still being played. And we probably won’t see an outcome to the showdown until well after Toronto has played its final playoff game this year.

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