Speculation about NHL expansion is increasing, and two markets in particular – Houston and Atlanta – look to be the favorites to land the league's next two franchises. Adam Proteau discusses why expansion could potentially benefit fans, players, and the sport as a whole.
For some time, the possibility of NHL expansion has been hovering on the league’s horizon.
Last week, prominent NHL agent Allan Walsh posted on X suggesting that expansion is coming to Houston and Atlanta, sparking conversation around the implications that would come with adding more teams to the league.
While there are no imminent changes, all signs point to expansion coming by the end of this decade. NHL commissioner Gary Bettman has spoken publicly of cost for an expansion franchise as recently as April, suggesting it would be substantially more than $1 billion USD.
The league also announced in June that it was beginning a six-month “evaluation process” to explore expanding into Houston or Austin, Texas.
It's worth noting that Bettman doesn’t want the disparity the league would have if it had 17 teams in one conference and 16 teams in the other. That means if the league eventually adds a 33rd team, it’s safe to say the 34th team will be coming soon thereafter.
And it’s this writer’s belief that additional NHL expansion is going to be great for the league and the sport.
The Case For NHL Expansion
We understand expansion waters down the product. More players from the AHL and other minor leagues will get NHL jobs when they’re not currently on the level of NHL players. And current NHL teams will lose talented players in expansion drafts.
Expanding to 34 teams is a level the NBA (30 teams), NFL (32 teams) and Major League Baseball (30 teams) have yet to get to. However, the NHL clearly has substantial interest from prospective team owners who believe in the league as an entertainment product.
It can be argued that it makes more sense for the NHL to relocate a team or two instead, but both expansion and relocation are not mutually exclusive. The league can move franchises around and still have the right circumstances for expansion.
Even after the NHL expands, there’ll be interest from other major cities to acquire a team. Bettman has mentioned there’s interest from Indianapolis, as well as New Orleans.
Additonally, there’s perennial interest around Canada, including Quebec City and a second Toronto-area team. It's clear that if a team fails in its current market, there will be cities lined up for relocation.
Another potential change attached to expansion is the number of teams that make the post-season, along with alterations to the playoff format as a whole. If the NHL adopts the NBA’s system, we’d have the top-six teams in each conference assured of a playoff spot.
From there, teams seeded seven-through-10 would be in a play-in system for the final two playoff berths in each conference. The teams that played the best in the regular-season would get the best playoff positions.
Having 20 teams in a playoff position would offset the competitive ramifications coming with the NHL’s increase in the number of teams. If there were 10 teams in each conference making the post-season, the battles for one of those final spots would make the final few games of the regular season much more intriguing.
That scenario could also create great business for more teams, and generating more lucrative financial environments is Bettman’s job.
The NHL Players Association will be thrilled with expansion and the 23 player jobs created with each new team. Owners will also be on board, as they get all expansion fees without having to share them with the NHLPA. Markets for expansion teams will be thrilled with the infusion of interest that will follow the team’s arrival.
Expansion benefits all of those parties, and that’s why it’s going to happen.
The Bottom Line
It's undeniable that the NHL would be more compelling if there were more talented players on fewer teams, but the league isn’t moving back to the Original Six era.
To that end, why shouldn’t fans in non-traditional markets get to prove they can sustain an NHL team? If things don’t go well down the road for one or two markets, we may eventually get to a point where NHL contraction takes place. But that's a rare occurrence for professional sports in North America.
Bettman wants his legacy to be about growing the game, which means expansion is surely on the way. Having a second team in Texas is a win for the league, and Bettman & Co. want to give Atlanta and Phoenix another shot at hosting a team.
Time will tell whether expansion to 34 teams was a terrific decision by the NHL, or whether the league is crossing a line. But there are real reasons that it could end up benefitting the game for years to come.
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