
By Gary Pearson, BetMGM
As we approach the two-thirds mark of the regular season, it's time to check in on which NHL teams represent the best value to make the playoffs.
With the disparity seemingly shrinking each season, several teams' odds stick out as prominently as Nikita Zadorov standing among a school of kindergarten kids.
Led by Vezina Trophy contender Jeremy Swayman, the Boston Bruins are exceeding expectations. At the time of writing, the Bruins are holding the second wild-card spot, albeit precariously.
Thanks to an 8-2-0 record since Dec. 31, Marco Sturm's team boasts the third-best points percentage (.800) in that span. They have the seventh-best goals percentage and allow the sixth-fewest expected goals against.
Their +240 hockey odds represent a 29.41 percent probability of making the playoffs in a season few expected them to be part of the dance.
While it's too early for Macklin Celebrini to take a bow, the sophomore sensation has the San Jose Sharks in a playoff position.
The Sharks haven't made the playoffs since 2019, the fourth-longest drought in the NHL.
But with Celebrini in Hart Trophy form, San Jose looks like it should be playoff-bound. While the current probability suggests a 39.22 percent likelihood, I feel their chances are even better.
With the Winnipeg Jets, Chicago Blackhawks and Vancouver Canucks reeling, along with the Calgary Flames making clear their priorities after shifting Rasmus Andersson to Vegas, the Sharks have a golden opportunity to end the streak.
They are, in my opinion, better than the Nashville Predators, which means they'll be battling the following four teams for three available spots: the Utah Mammoth, Seattle Kraken, Anaheim Ducks and Los Angeles Kings.
Auston Matthews is scoring goals, Anthony Stolarz is nearing a long-awaited return, and the Toronto Maple Leafs are back in the race for a playoff spot.
With a 9-2-3 record, they have the second-best points percentage (.750) since Dec. 23, tied with the surging Buffalo Sabres.
Before going down with an upper-body injury on Nov. 11, Stolarz endured a comparatively woeful start to the campaign. Craig Berube and Co. will hope the 32-year-old will return dialled in, ready to return to the goaltender everybody raved about last season.
While Joseph Woll and Dennis Hildeby are not to blame for the Maple Leafs' mediocrity, the Maple Leafs own the fourth-worst goals above expected (14.31). Stolarz will be tasked with bringing that swollen number down.
The Pittsburgh Penguins are third in the Metropolitan Division, three points clear of the Philadelphia Flyers, New Jersey Devils and Washington Capitals.
After losing eight in a row during December, Dan Muse's team recovered well and has the fifth-best points percentage (.714) since Dec. 21.
Stuart Skinner is 5-1-0 with a .931 save percentage and 1.67 goals-against average in his last six starts. While he probably won't maintain those elite numbers, the Pens have played much better defensively recently and rank third on the power play (28 percent).
They also have an inspired captain leading the charge. Sidney Crosby is on pace for 94 points, which would be his joint-best season since scoring 100 points in 2018-19.