The Toronto Maple Leafs have their own star player to re-sign, but the Toronto Blue Jays took care of business with theirs.

Toronto sports fans awoke Monday to the news that Blue Jays star first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. agreed to a 14-year, $500-million contract extension.

Before the deal, there was no shortage of angst that Guerrero Jr. would leave the Blue Jays via free agency next year. That sounds a little similar to what the Maple Leafs have in store.

Guerrero Jr. sticking around long-term leaves Maple Leafs right winger Mitch Marner as the main Toronto star player whose future is in doubt.

Marner gave an interview to The Athletic last week in which he once again spoke in boilerplate generalities about his status as a Leaf. He hasn’t said anything other than his focus is on winning this season, playing hockey and leaving his long-term status up in the air until further notice.

That said, although some people are increasingly skeptical that Marner will re-sign with the Maple Leafs when he becomes a UFA this summer, we still think he will find a way to stay in Toronto.

Marner likely knows not to speak out in specifics about his desire to remain a Maple Leaf. Getting the contract you want is all about leverage, and if you’re gushing about loving your time in a city and desperately wanting to stay in that city for your entire career, you’re giving up leverage to the team. Being intentionally obtuse can be a strategy.

That’s not guaranteeing Marner will stay in Toronto. Marner might decide the daily demands of being a Leaf are no longer in his best interest as a top player. He can get what he wants financially in any number of markets, and he can go from the media-heavy Toronto market to a market where there may be one or two reporters to deal with on a regular basis. 

For some players – for example, Nashville Predators center and former Leaf Ryan O’Reilly – it’s not fun to play in the intense spotlight. However, other Leafs in Marner’s era have figured out how to exist successfully in Toronto, such as Buds captain Auston Matthews and star right winger William Nylander.

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One thing is becoming perfectly clear, though – the notion of Marner re-signing with a hometown discount should be thrown out the window. 

If Marner wanted to re-sign on the cheap, his contract extension would’ve been done already. But given that he can sign an extension that will keep him in Toronto until he’s 36 years old – and given that the salary cap ceiling will rise exponentially in multiple years to come – Marner surely wants to hit a home run. 

Marner’s agent, Darren Ferris, wouldn’t be doing his job if he didn’t push Marner to get as much money as possible. That means holding out until the off-season arrives so other teams push Marner’s value into a $13-million cap hit or higher.

The Leafs may decide that they have an internal budget limit where no player makes more than the $13.25 million Matthews will make through 2028, but then the choice is obvious for Marner – either he accepts a deal at or close to Matthews’ level, or he does decide to move on. If he gets to that point and chooses to leave, the Leafs will turn their attention to other top players on the free agent or trade front. Someone will be happy to take $11 million to $13 million per season to be a Leaf, whether it’s Marner or someone else.

For now, though, we absolutely believe Marner when he says he’s just focusing on winning with the Leafs this year. Who knows, if Toronto does go on a tear in the Stanley Cup playoffs, Leafs management and ownership may give Marner everything he’s looking for and then some. 

But at the moment, Marner won’t give up his leverage just to give the media and fans some extra information or just because another superstar in Toronto signed a megadeal. Marner and Ferris are happily embracing their status as businessmen, and that’s why they won’t show their negotiating cards before they have to.

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