Which NHL Goalie Has Best Chance Of Winning The Conn Smythe?

There has been no shortage of top-tier displays between the pipes to start these NHL playoffs.

That could indicate that we're on course to see a goaltender win the Conn Smythe Trophy for the first time since Andrei Vasilevskiy in 2021. 

None of the remaining starters has won the Stanley Cup, let alone the Conn Smythe. In fact, only three of eight – Frederik Andersen, Carter Hart and Alex Lyon – had started a playoff game before the post-season commenced. 

Lyon had only three under his belt. 

That palpable inexperience is what makes their performance level all the more impressive. 

Andersen is the most seasoned with 91 playoff starts and, unsurprisingly, is also the clear Conn Smythe favorite among the current crop. 

Only Nathan MacKinnon has shorter hockey odds than Andersen, who has an unblemished 6-0 record, with a .958 save percentage, 10.3 goals saved above expected and a miserly 1.02 goals-against average. 

He sits atop all of the aforementioned statistical categories. With two shutouts, Andersen has yet to allow more than two goals. Maybe most impressively, he sports a 0.917 save percentage on high-danger shots. 

The 36-year-old started last season's playoffs in a similar vein, but dropped off for various reasons after the first round. It doesn't appear that it will happen again this time around.

He finished Game 1 against the Minnesota Wild with a minus-3.1 goals saved above expected, bringing his playoff total down to 2.9. That's still the fifth-best among remaining goaltenders, and it marked the only time he conceded more than two goals in five starts.

The best thing about that anomalous performance is that he still picked up the victory. No harm, no foul. 

And remember, his five starts in these playoffs are the only ones of his career thus far. 

Two of the four rookie netminders to win the Conn Smythe played for the Montreal Canadiens. Could Jakub Dobes follow in Ken Dryden and Patrick Roy's footsteps and pull off the rare and improbable feat? 

After almost singlehandedly stealing Game 7 against the Tampa Bay Lightning, Dobes is on the right track to becoming the first rookie goaltender since Cam Ward in 2006 to secure the venerable honor.

In Games 6 and 7, he turned aside 60 of 62 shots and had 4.11 goals saved above expected. A continuation of that trajectory could land him in one of the most exclusive clubs.

Lyon is 3-1 with a .955 save percentage and 1.14 GAA since replacing Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen late in Game 2. 

He has the third-best goals saved above expected (4.6) and allowed just two goals in his lone defeat. The Buffalo Sabres outscored the Boston Bruins 16-5 with Lyon between the pipes. 

The only reason Hart's odds are shorter than Dan Vladar's is due to the higher likelihood that the Vegas Golden Knights will win the Stanley Cup. 

He has improved recently, allowing two goals in his previous two starts and also has the third-best save percentage (.824) on high-danger shots among remaining goalies. 

But if the Golden Knights win the Cup, I'm convinced the Conn Smythe will be handed to Jack Eichel or Mitch Marner.

The worst game of Jesper Wallstedt's fledgling career, at least statistically speaking, came at an inopportune time. 

In Game 1 against the Avs, he allowed eight goals for the first time, finishing with minus-4.02 goals saved above expected. 

Like Dobes, this is Wallstedt's first taste of playoff action. While I have no concerns about his ability to bounce back, I don't think he's ready to toss the Wild on his back and take them beyond the Avalanche en route to a Stanley Cup.  

Even if the Wild win the Cup, Matt Boldy, Quinn Hughes and Kirill Kaprizov are all higher on the pecking order.

Aside from Andersen, no goaltender has been better than Dan Vladar. Unfortunately, he and his Philadelphia Flyers find themselves 2-0 down to the Hurricanes. 

Vladar has the second-best goals saved above expected (8.2), a .928 save percentage and 1.89 GAA, both of which are third-best behind Lyon and Andersen. 

I doubt the Flyers will come back, but if they do, it will be because of Vladar's brilliance.

Lukas Dostal enjoyed his best performance of the post-season in the Game 1 loss to the Golden Knights.

Dostal is also getting his first taste of playoff hockey, and that inexperience has shown, with a swollen 3.59 GAA and unimpressive goals saved above expected (minus-3.2) and save percentage (.878).

By Gary Pearson, BetMGM