The NHL isn’t kidding when it says ‘The Next Golden Era is Now.’
In the salary-cap era, players have hit 50 goals or more 35 times in 19 seasons, but 13 of those have come in the last three years. Likewise, 67 players have reached 100 points, with 28 of those happening in the last three seasons.
After nine players got to 100 points in 2023-24, it looks like eight could hit that mark in 2024-25, assuming good health and steady production. Goal-scoring is a different situation, though, and the way things are going, we might see just one 50-goal man this year.
It’s always possible that a player catches fire down the stretch and plays his way into these conversations. For now, here’s how it breaks down.
The Century Club
Connor McDavid has hit the century mark the most often in the salary-cap era, with seven 100-point seasons in his nine years played to date.
This year, he’ll make it eight in 10 — as long as he stays healthy and doesn’t get suspended again.
The Edmonton Oilers have 27 regular-season games remaining. McDavid is tied for fourth in the scoring race, with 71 points in 49 games. That puts him on pace for 110.
Coming out of the 4 Nations break, Nathan MacKinnon has a four-point lead in the Art Ross race and is nicely on track for the third-straight 100-point campaign of his career.
With 87 points in 57 games, MacKinnon has played two more games than second-place Leon Draisaitl (83 points) and five more than Nikita Kucherov in third (82 points).
If each player plays every remaining game, the Art Ross race projects to be a photo finish:
- Nathan MacKinnon - 125 points
- Nikita Kucherov - 124 points
- Leon Draisaitl - 123 points
If McDavid gets his 110 points, he’ll slot into fourth place.
Three others are projected to reach 100 based on their current rates of production:
- Mitch Marner – 106 points
- Jack Eichel – 101 points
- Kyle Connor – 100 points
If they get there, all three players will be new members of the Century Club. Marner got to 99 points in 2022-23, Eichel’s previous best was 82 points with the Buffalo Sabres in 2018-19 and Connor got to 93 with the Winnipeg Jets in 2021-22.
Four other players who broke 100 last season look like they’ll fall short this year.
Artemi Panarin had 120 points but is on pace for 89 this year. Auston Matthews had 107 points last season but is currently tracking for just 75.
Then there’s Mikko Rantanen. He put up back-to-back years with 105 and 104 points before he was traded from the Colorado Avalanche last month.
With 64 points in 49 games before the trade, he was set to crack 100 again. But Rantanen has just two points in six games with the Carolina Hurricanes. If that continues over the last 26 games of the year, he’ll finish below 80.
Chances are, he’ll pick up the pace to some degree. For now, he needs 34 points in 26 games to crack 100 for the year.
J.T. Miller also has next to no chance of matching his 103-point breakthrough with the Vancouver Canucks last season. Miller has 39 points in 45 games this year.
Finally, there’s the curious case of David Pastrnak — the most likely candidate to be the eighth player to reach 100 points this year.
Through the first three months of the season, Pastrnak was below a point-per-game pace, with 37 points in 39 games. But since Jan. 1, he has led the league with 31 points in 18 games.
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Use his full-season average of 1.19 points per game, and the Boston Bruins sniper would fall just short, at 97 points. But he’s also coming off two-straight seasons with at least 110 points. If anybody can stay hot enough to crack 100, it’s Pasta.
50-Goal Unicorn?
When it comes to scoring 50 goals in a season, only 21 players have done it in the salary-cap era. Alex Ovechkin leads the way, of course, with nine 50-goal seasons. And while he’s on track to get to the 44 he needs to break Wayne Gretzky’s record before the end of this year, the 16 games he missed due to injury this year will probably prevent him from logging his 10th 50-goal campaign.
Last season, Ovechkin was not one of four 50-goal scorers in the league. But as fun as it was to see veterans Zach Hyman and Sam Reinhart break out, the stats suggest that just one player has a clear path to 50 this year.
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That’d be a noteworthy dip after five players also hit the magic number in 2022-23 and four in 2021-22.
Full marks go to Leon Draisaitl, the only player to reach 40 goals so far this season. He now holds a seven-goal lead over William Nylander, in second place, and is on pace for 59 goals this year. That would be a career high, and the fourth 50-goal season of his 11-year career.
Draisaitl won the Hart Trophy and the Art Ross in the shortened 2019-20 season. If he fends off his challengers, this will be his first Rocket Richard Trophy.
After putting up back-to-back 40-goal seasons, Nylander looks poised to hit a new high this year. If he can maintain his current pace, he’ll get to 49. If everything goes right, 50 could be within reach.
Two other players are tracking to eclipse 45: Brayden Point, who hit 51 in 2022-23, and Mark Scheifele, whose career high of 42 came that same year.
Then, there’s Pastrnak. His full-season production has him on track for just over 40 this year, but his 15 goals in 18 games since Jan. 1 suggest he’s trending up. The math says he could be knocking at the door. Could he crack 50 for the second time in his career this April?
Correction: Alex Ovechkin did not reach 50 goals last year.
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