The Stars and Wild, Lightning and Canadiens, and Golden Knights and Mammoth are tied in their NHL playoff series. For BetMGM, here's who Gary Pearson predicts will win.
Three first-round series are down to a best-of-3 to decide which NHL teams will advance to the second round.
Six of the 12 games in those series required overtime, eight were decided by one goal, and two extended to a two-goal margin because of empty-net insurance markers.
The Minnesota Wild's 6-1 Game 1 win over the Dallas Stars was the only contest decided by more than two goals.
With almost nothing to choose between the teams, who will sneak into the second round, and what will push them over the finish line?
Minnesota Wild vs. Dallas Stars
Before the series started, I backed the Stars to win in seven, but I'm altering course.
The Wild have been the better 5-on-5 team, scoring nine of their 14 goals in that situation. The polar opposite is true of the Stars, which have relied on their power play to score eight of 11.
I don't expect the Stars to continue scoring at a 42.1 percent clip on the power play, and I'm not confident they can significantly improve their 5-on-5 play.
The Stars are tied for the fewest high-danger shots in the playoffs, while the Wild have created the sixth-most, according to moneypuck.com.
Minnesota has the fifth-best PDO, a stat that combines the team's shooting percentage and save percentage. The Stars are 12th.
The Stars are also having trouble finishing their chances, ranking sixth-worst in goals above expected.
If the Wild can stay clear of the sin bin, I expect them to advance to the second round for the first time since 2015.
They have +100 odds (50 percent) of doing exactly that.
Montreal Canadiens vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
Each game has been decided by one goal in the most tightly contested series of the first round.
The Tampa Bay Lightning showed all of their experience in overturning a two-goal deficit in Game 4.
It was a perfect demonstration of what proven winners do, defying the odds to win a crucial game.
Brandon Hagel not only dominated the contest but also altered the series' trajectory. He has six goals already, including two in the third period of Game 4.
Both goaltenders have played well, with Jakub Dobes sporting 0.1 goals saved above expected and Andrei Vasilevskiy at 0.8.
The Montreal Canadiens have the fourth-best power play (26.3 percent), and the Lightning are fifth (20 percent).
Five of the Canadiens' 11 goals have come with the man advantage, while the Lightning's power play has accounted for four of their 11. Both teams scored a power-play goal in three of four games.
One of the only discernible differences is the 5-on-5 production the Lightning are receiving from their top players, most notably Hagel.
Five of his seven points have come at even strength, while Nikita Kucherov and Jake Guentzel have two and three 5-on-5 points, respectively.
Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki and Juraj Slafkovsky, meanwhile, are still searching for their first even-strength point.
I don't expect nearly as many power plays to cap off the series, and the Lightning's superior 5-on-5 production will provide the edge required for them to move on.
Playing two of three at home also helps. To optimize the value, I'm backing the Lightning to win in six games, which carries hockey odds of +185 (35.09 percent).
Utah Mammoth vs. Vegas Golden Knights
I can't put into words how important Shea Theodore's overtime goal was for the Vegas Golden Knights, which received a Conn Smythe-like performance from Jack Eichel despite him being at fault for their disallowed goal preceding the winner.
It marked the turning point of the series, and I expect the Golden Knights to finish it in six games (+180 odds).
Neither goaltender has been spectacular, with Carter Hart and Karel Vejmelka sporting -1.9 and -0.3 goals saved above expected, respectively.
While Hart must take the lion's share of accountability for his team's 1.94 goals against above expected, Vegas has suffered from a bout of poor puck luck, with three own goals thus far.
Those types of occurrences often even out.
The Golden Knights are creating chances and have the 10th-most expected goals compared to the Utah Mammoth's 15th-most.
In addition, Eichel should be galvanized by his three assists in Game 4, one of which came on the winner, an ominous proposition for the Mammoth.
By Gary Pearson, BetMGM