Auston Matthews is one of the most gifted goal-scorers in the NHL today, and he’s already ahead of Alex Ovechkin’s pace in terms of goals scored in the same number of games. 

But while comparisons between the two are inevitable, the likelihood that Toronto Maple Leafs captain Matthews will catch Ovechkin's all-time goal record is low. 

As fun as it is to project where Matthews might finish and imagine that there’s another player capable of doing what many thought Ovechkin would never do, three key factors make this an unrealistic expectation: durability, consistency and power-play production.

Health Is The Biggest Thing Working Against Matthews

Ovechkin’s relatively good health made his run possible. Matthews’s biggest challenge is that he rarely plays every game each season. His only 82-game campaign came in his rookie year in 2016-17, and played all 70 games in the shortened 2019-20 season. Other than that, he’s missed 71 possible games in his career, including 15 this year.

In comparison, Ovechkin has been remarkably durable. He’s missed 79 games in his 20-year career. 

To even match Ovechkin’s current games played total, Matthews would need to stay perfectly healthy for over a decade – 10-1/2 straight seasons playing every single game. If he averaged 75 games per year, it would take closer to 11-1/2 seasons.

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Elite Power-Play Production Factors Into Ovechkin’s Total

Another big factor separating Ovechkin from Matthews (frankly, from anyone) is how elite he is on the power play.

Ovechkin has scored 325 of his 895 career goals on the man advantage, accounting for 36.3 percent of his total. 

Matthews, on the other hand, has 104 power-play goals out of his 398, which comes to just 26.1 percent. That 10.2-point difference may not sound massive, but it’s a game-changer over a career. 

Ovechkin’s power-play dominance has been a critical part of his longevity as a goal-scorer. 

Since 2016, the Maple Leafs have had a better power-play percentage success rate than the Washington Capitals in every season except 2020-21. In other words, Toronto’s power play has been much better than Washington’s, but Ovechkin has still outpaced Matthews in power-play goals by a wide margin.

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Consistency Over Time

Ovechkin is the definition of consistent. His elite scoring seasons vastly outnumber his “down” years – like 2023-24, when he still scored 34 goals in 79 games. He’s managed to avoid any significant drop-offs in production over a two decades. Only Sidney Crosby has been as or more consistent in the salary cap era. 

Ovechkin’s ability to score in any year, with changing teammates, coaches and ages, will likely go unmatched. 

Matthews may be the most dynamic scorer of this generation, and his 60 goals in 2021-22 and 69 in 2023-24 show signs of a history-maker. His 41 goals in 52 games were impressive as well. But with 40 goals in between those two 60-goal seasons and 30 this year, consistency is a question.

In the end, Matthews may finish his career as one of the NHL’s all-time great goal scorers – but passing Ovechkin? That’s still a long shot.

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