As the Toronto Maple Leafs begin navigating contract talks with John Tavares, some have pointed to Matt Duchene’s recent four-year, $18-million deal with the Dallas Stars as a benchmark.
Not so fast.
On the surface, the comparison is tempting: both are 34-year-old forwards represented by the same agent, Pat Brisson, and both want to stay put for their own personal reasons. But digging deeper reveals why Duchene’s deal isn’t a realistic or fair comparable for Tavares.
First, Duchene is still being paid by the Nashville Predators after being bought out last summer. He’ll earn an additional $6.55-million from Nashville in 2025-26 alone, with more money coming in the following three seasons. That financial cushion gave Duchene the flexibility to accept a lower cap hit in Dallas, knowing he’d be earning significantly more overall.
Second, Dallas is a no-income-tax state. The $4.5 million Duchene will make per season stretches far further in Texas than it would in Ontario, where players for the Leafs face one of the heaviest tax burdens in the league. Any direct comparison in raw salary between the two is skewed unless taxes are taken into account.
Third — and most importantly — Tavares has had the consistently better seasons and remains a more well-rounded, sought-after player. While Duchene contributed effectively in a bounce-back season for the Stars, Tavares has 223 more points and 123 more goals. He has 16 more playoff points in only six more playoff games, and he potentially remains a central figure for the Leafs, assuming they can’t find a second-line center this off-season.
Duchene has moved around from team to team, whereas Tavares has been a steady presence in Toronto, even taking the loss of his captaincy in stride and coming back with a tremendous season.
Tavares has expressed a willingness to take less money and work with Toronto on a creative deal structure, but some believe the Leafs may push too hard, and with recent reports showing that the Leafs and Tavares are not close to a new deal, this could very well be the case.
Using Duchene’s $4.5-million average annual value as a hard ceiling ignores key context and risks, insulting a player who chose Toronto in 2018 when he could have gone elsewhere. This is not to say the Leafs need to reward Tavares with a $7-million deal. However, undervaluing his contribution now could send the wrong message to future free agents and current core players.
The Leafs have to balance loyalty and need with cap efficiency. But to simply suggest Duchene’s deal as the measuring stick for Tavares is a flawed strategy and ignores some very critical parts of the Duchene negotiation that were unique to his situation.
Correction: Tavares is no longer Leafs captain.
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