An incredible start to the Stanley Cup final makes the Golden Knights' Mitch Marner the front-runner for the Conn Smythe Trophy. Does he deserve it no matter what? Gary Pearson takes a look for BetMGM.
After a historic, record-setting Game 3 performance, Mitch Marner pulled further ahead in the race to win the 2026 Conn Smythe Trophy.
Entering Game 4, Marner's hockey odds to win the Conn Smythe Trophy carry an implied win probability of 67.58 percent.
If the Vegas Golden Knights win the Stanley Cup, he is pretty much a shoo-in to win the coveted award, but can the first-time finalist secure the honor if the Carolina Hurricanes come back and win it all?
Will Mitch Marner Win Conn Smythe if Vegas Loses?
Marner waited 10 regular seasons to get his first taste of Stanley Cup final action. Has he ever made it count, dominating proceedings in what is tantamount to one of the best starts to a final.
Marner became the first NHL player in Stanley Cup final history to score four points in one period, which included the fastest hat trick. His three goals in the second period came in six minutes and 10 seconds, beating the previous record set by Maurice Richard.
It took Richard 6:21 to accomplish the feat against the Boston Bruins in Game 1 of the 1957 Stanley Cup final.
Marner has 28 points in 19 games, seven of which are in three Stanley Cup final games. He has eight multi-point outings and is eight points ahead of second-place Jack Eichel.
He has seven points in three Stanley Cup final games, six short of the record set by Wayne Gretzky. The Great One notched 13 points in five games against the Boston Bruins in the 1988 Stanley Cup final.
If the final goes the distance, Marner is on pace to eclipse that record, albeit in more games.
His Conn Smythe advantage, at least over teammates, feels insurmountable.
Brett Howden has the second-shortest odds (+10000) of Golden Knights players. Those odds imply a 0.99 percent probability of winning.
At +12500, Eichel sits in third. Those odds carry a 0.79 percent chance.
Marner's Chances Of Securing Conn Smythe If Hurricanes Win Stanley Cup
In 2024, Connor McDavid became the sixth player to win the Conn Smythe on a losing team. He finished the playoffs with 42 points in 25 games, an average of 1.68 per game.
He is just the second non-goalie to win the award on a losing team.
Marner is averaging 1.47 points per game, but there are various other factors to consider. Most poignantly, no Hurricane is elevating their level to a fraction of what Marner has.
Frederik Andersen lost his spot among the top five after allowing four goals on 16 shots in Game 3. It was his third successive Stanley Cup final game with a sub-zero goals saved above expected.
Despite playing pretty well, Taylor Hall has just one point through three Stanley Cup final games and five points in the last eight contests.
He leads the Hurricanes with 17 points (6 goals, 11 assists), one ahead of Jackson Blake and three on top of Logan Stankoven, all of whom are among the five favorites.
Stankoven scored a critical goal in Game 2 to spark the Hurricanes' third-period comeback, and he has six points in the previous five games.
Nikolaj Ehlers is also among those with a fighting chance, as his +3500 odds represent a 2.78 percent probability.
Jordan Staal, meanwhile, has been the best Hurricane in the final, scoring a goal in three straight. He's still a ways down the totem pole, though, with +8000 odds.
But have any of those players done enough to convince voters to overlook Marner's brilliance?
It's an emphatic no from me.
That said, we still might not be at the halfway mark of this already epic Stanley Cup final. And based on what has transpired, I'm expecting more forthcoming whacky, wild and unprecedented events.
The combatants have combined for 25 goals, averaging 8.3 per game. The most goals in a playoff series averaged 11.5, while the most in a Stanley Cup final averaged 8.
Who knows what's in store for the remainder of the series, but I have a feeling things will tighten up defensively. Then again, I also had that feeling prior to Game 3.
One thing is for sure: things can change dramatically in the blink of an eye.
But if things remain on the same trajectory, Marner has the inside track of becoming the playoff MVP regardless of who wins the Stanley Cup.
By Gary Pearson, BetMGM