The Buffalo Sabres lead the Atlantic Division after having a very rough start to the season. Can they hang on and win the division over the Tampa Bay Lightning? Gary Pearson takes a look for BetMGM.
I'm the first one to put up my hand and admit I was wrong about the Buffalo Sabres. Not only is Lindy Ruff's team sensational to watch, but they are on top of the Atlantic Division with 18 games remaining.
The Sabres have never finished above fifth place in the Atlantic Division, which begs the question: can they hold off the Tampa Bay Lightning and win the Atlantic Division for the first time?
A month ago, the Lightning's implied probability of winning the division was at about 90 percent. The Lightning remain the favorite, but their probability of doing so has dropped to 66.7 percent.
The Sabres, meanwhile, have seen their odds improve to +200, implying a 33.3 percent chance of accomplishing the unprecedented feat.
The Detroit Red Wings are five points behind the Sabres, while the Montreal Canadiens trail by six points. Neither team is considered by oddsmakers a threat to overcome the deficit, with the Red Wings' implied probability at 2.4 percent and the Canadiens at 5.3 percent.
It looks as though we'll be treated to the two best teams in the league since early December going toe-to-toe to determine the winner. If it's anything like their recent 8-7 thriller, we're in for a box-office finale.
Here's a breakdown of what to expect down the stretch in the most intriguing divisional race.
Tampa Bay Lightning (-200)
The Lightning, with the second-shortest Stanley Cup odds, have the second-best points percentage (.727) since Dec. 9 and have two games in hand.
With a somewhat favorable schedule, the Lightning will play 12 of their remaining 20 games at Benchmark International Arena, where they have the eighth-best home record (19-10-0).
They might not feel the same, though, given their road record (20-9-4) ranks third-best.
Jon Cooper's team has seven games left against Western Conference teams, which they've run roughshod over this season, with an outstanding 18-6-1 record. And they face seven games against teams outside of the playoff picture.
Tampa's recent form has dipped, having lost five of the last six.
Buffalo Sabres (+200)
The Sabres boast a ridiculous 28-5-2 record since Dec. 9, which is the league's best points percentage (.829). They've also won seven in a row.
Ten of their 18 remaining games are at KeyBank Center, where they have the fifth-best record (20-8-3).
With a comparatively subpar 10th-best road record, Rasmus Dahlin and Co. will be content with playing more on home ice.
The Sabres play 10 games against non-playoff teams and get one more crack at the Lightning on home ice. That encounter takes place on Monday, April 6, which every hockey fan should circle on their calendar.
Based on form and what I believe to be an unparalleled desire and level of desperation, the Sabres have the inside track to finish atop the division.
However, the Lightning have experience on their side and a disproportionate number of home games to look forward to.
The Sabres haven't been through a slump of any kind in three months, which makes me think one is forthcoming. And it would be better to go through one now than in their first playoff series in 15 years.
That's why I'm backing the Lightning to take the division, with my head again superseding my heart.