Does Your NHL Team Have a True No. 1 Center For the 2024-25 Season?

Six years ago, The Hockey News’ Ryan Kennedy did an exercise to determine which NHL teams had true No. 1 centers on their roster. 

He was inspired by the Washington Capitals, who had just won the Stanley Cup with a powerful one-two punch of Nicklas Backstrom and Evgeny Kuznetsov down the middle, and argued that teams couldn’t win a championship unless they were strong at that key position.

Subsequent Cup results backed up his theory. Admittedly, Kennedy called Ryan O’Reilly “a really good No. 2” when he wrote his story. But that was just weeks after he was traded to the St. Louis Blues, before he changed his narrative forever with a career year, a Cup and a Conn Smythe Trophy in 2019.

O'Reilly is a good illustration of how hard it can be to identify a true No. 1 — and how players naturally move in and out of the category as their careers progress.

Kennedy said, “In my mind, the player must be one of your forward corps’ leaders in ice time and faceoffs (obviously) while also facing solid competition and putting up at least 60 points.”

Since that was written, overall scoring has increased by just under five percent. That would bump his threshold to about 63 points, but these days the very best No. 1 centers are putting up numbers like we haven't seen in decade.

So, for the 2024-25 version of this exercise, I've split the top tier into two categories. 

The Elites regularly log 90 points or more and often find their way onto Hart Trophy ballots. The Effectives get the job done without quite the same star power or championship pedigree.

We've got four Hart Trophy winners and five Stanley Cup champs in this tier. Eichel's output is a bit low, but he squeaks after scoring at a 95-point pace last season and has that Cup on his resume.

No Cups here yet aside from Thomas and no Hart Trophy finalists. For the most part, these players are a little younger but are already logging important minutes at both ends of the ice. Aho and Thomas both got close to 90 points with career-best years last season. With Mat Barzal moving to the wing for the Islanders, Horvat moves up.

Boston and Washington are hoping they've filled that No. 1 slot with their off-season acquisitions. 

Elias Lindholm is smart, diligent and versatile, but that 82-point year with Matthew Tkachuk and Johnny Gaudreau in 2021-22 was the exception, not the rule. The Bruins may have committed themselves to a ‘Very Good No. 2.’

Six years and three teams ago, Kennedy put Pierre-Luc Dubois in this category as a sophomore with Columbus. Will he finally realize his enormous potential in Washington?

In Buffalo, Tage Thompson was tracking toward No. 1 status before backsliding to 56 points last season. Dylan Cozens also took a step back, but his stronger defensive game may eventually vault him past Thompson and into the Sabres’ No. 1 spot.

Suzuki, Hughes and Stutzle are all on the cusp of jumping to the next level. Hughes and Stutzle have the offensive numbers but need to further refine their two-way games and stay healthy. Suzuki is already getting Selke votes. For him, the most glaring missing ingredient is team success.

The best way for a team to acquire a No. 1 center is to draft and develop him. In the top two tiers, the only players who aren't with the teams that drafted them are Miller and Eichel.  

All seven players in this category were top 10 picks with the weight of high expectations on their shoulders. Most have already seen their progress slowed somewhat due to injury, but the outlook remains bright as they take on bigger roles and, ideally, help lead their teams back into playoff contention.

Pittsburgh narrowly avoids this designation thanks to Crosby’s back-to-back 90-point seasons and his rumored desire to sign a contract extension with the Penguins.

Kopitar is the same age as Crosby, also turning 37 in August. He's under contract with the Kings for two more years and continues to defy Father Time. 

For now, Kopitar is still playing at a very high level. But last season's failed Dubois experiment leaves L.A. without a clear succession plan.

In 2018, Kennedy called Mika Zibanejad a ‘Good No. 2.’ The Blueshirts’ pivot saw his game spike after Artemi Panarin joined him in 2019, but it’s not yet clear whether last season was a down year or the beginning of an age-related decline. He’s signed for six more seasons.

Nazem Kadri can put up points and play a decent two-way game, but he has never averaged more than 20 minutes a game. At 33, it's unrealistic to expect him to properly fill in a No. 1 role for the first time in his career.

In Philadelphia, the Flyers will have a major hole if Sean Couturier doesn’t return to form following his late-season issues last year. 

And the Kraken are crossing their fingers that Matty Beniers and Shane Wright will eventually take charge with a one-two punch down the middle. They still have a long way to go. Free-agent signing Chandler Stephenson is a decent stop-gap but not a true No. 1.

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