The Tampa Bay Lightning and Washington Capitals turn back the clock, while the Winnipeg Jets and Colorado Avalanche remain close in the standings and the NHL power rankings.
Finally, a new team at the top.
With the longest active winning streak, the Avalanche take top spot in the NHL power rankings. In fact, the Panthers and Rangers, which had occupied the top two spots for four consecutive weeks, drop to fourth and fifth, respectively.
Unlike the previous season where the Bruins won the Presidents’ Trophy by a 22-point margin, the top six teams are just separated by four points with major implications to potential playoff matchups. It’s the difference between facing a wild-card team or facing a tough divisional rival in the opening round.
Among the biggest movers and shakers this week are the Lightning and Capitals, who have turned back the clock and suddenly look like they’re in vintage form. The Lightning seem to have flipped a switch again, earning big victories against elite teams, while the Capitals are just one point behind the flailing Red Wings for the final wild-card spot.
Meanwhile, the Islanders, who held the second wild-card spot this time last week, have lost five straight and leapfrogged by the Capitals.
With fewer than 15 games to go for most teams, the wild cards will likely come down to the final day of the regular season again.
(All fancy stats are 5-on-5 and courtesy naturalstattrick.com. CF% stands for Corsi-for percentage and xGF% represents expected goals-for percentage.)
1. Colorado Avalanche (44-20-5, +51 goal differential. CF% league rank: 7, xGF% league rank: 9)
With the league’s longest active winning streak at seven games, who can deny the Avs the top spot? Their recent schedule wasn’t exactly a gauntlet, but with consecutive clutch overtime wins against the Canucks and Oilers, and only three regulation losses in their last 16 games since their four-game losing streak in February, it’s been a literal landslide.
2. Carolina Hurricanes (43-20-6, +51. CF%: 1, xGF%: 1)
The Hurricanes have the second-longest active winning streak and also claim the top spot in both key advanced metrics. The biggest statement, however, was a 4-0 win against the Panthers last Thursday. Their tandem with Pyotr Kochetkov and Frederik Andersen has a chance to be the league’s best if they can stay healthy and consistent.
3. Winnipeg Jets (44-19-5, +54. CF%: 9, xGF%: 8)
Sean Monahan and Tyler Toffoli have both been great acquisitions, but the story is Connor Hellebuyck, who might’ve just locked up the Vezina with a 38-save performance against the Rangers, his 32nd win in just his 50th start.
4. New York Rangers (45-20-4, +42. CF%: 20, xGF%: 24)
Like in 27 Dresses, the Rangers keep playing the bridesmaid and never the bride, failing again to claim the top spot in the NHL power rankings following losses to the Lightning and the Jets. Don’t worry; they’ll get their chance in the coming week with the Bruins Thursday, Panthers on Saturday and Avalanche next Thursday.
5. Florida Panthers (45-19-4, +59. CF%: 2, xGF%: 4)
After four weeks at the top of the food chain, the Panthers lose their bite following losses to two conference rivals in the Hurricanes and Lightning. It’s the first time they’ve lost consecutive games since mid-January, though the one reprieve is they still have the best goal differential in the league.
6. Vancouver Canucks (43-18-8, +55. CF%: 13, xGF%: 10)
A stumble without Thatcher Demko against the Avs, a lackluster effort in a loss against the Capitals and then a close call against the Sabres, the Canucks have showed gumption but not the dominance expected from a top-tier team. Since Feb. 1, the Canucks are just 10-7-3 and 17th in points percentage.
7. Edmonton Oilers (41-21-4, +47. CF%: 3, xGF%: 2)
A tough stretch where the Oilers are just 3-1-2 in their last six, including a loss to the Avalanche and a close call against the Canadiens. Even with three games in hand, they’ll need to go on a huge run and hope the Canucks keep stumbling to win the Pacific.
8. Boston Bruins (41-14-15, +45. CF%: 24, xGF%: 13)
How does a team that leads the league in points rank only eighth? Fifteen loser points, that’s how. The league’s flawed points system doesn’t reward teams that get the job done in 60 minutes, and the Bruins rank eighth based on regulation wins. The competition was soft last week, facing the Habs, Flyers and Sens.
9. Toronto Maple Leafs (38-20-9, +32. CF%: 16, xGF%: 14)
They’re chugging along without Mitch Marner, but clearly, they’re not a top-tier team. Though they’re likely locked in as the third seed in the Atlantic, they’re also a combined 1-3-0 against the Panthers and Bruins so far this season.
10. Dallas Stars (41-19-9, +41. CF%: 6, xGF%: 5)
Jake Oettinger hasn’t been sharp all season, but this isn’t the time to slump. The good news is they have a very capable backup in Scott Wedgewood, but it certainly feels like the Stars are a tier below the Avalanche and Jets.
11. Nashville Predators (40-25-4, +21. CF%: 14, xGF%: 7)
The Preds are a league-best 13-0-2 (!) since the 9-2 loss against the Stars, and they might be the most terrifying wild-card team to play against with so much momentum behind them. Is their late season surge enough to give Andrew Brunette a Jack Adams nomination?
12. Los Angeles Kings (35-22-11, +30. CF%: 4, xGF%: 3)
The Kings have alternated wins and losses for two weeks with zero surprises: losses to the Canucks, Blues and Stars (twice), and wins against the Sens, Islanders and Hawks (twice). Make no mistake, the Kings are a good team, but they lack the spark that makes you think they can stage an upset.
13. Tampa Bay Lightning (37-25-6, +12. CF%: 15, xGF%: 22)
Gosh darn it, they’ve done it again. Just when we thought the Lightning were through, they flip the switch and beat the Flyers, Rangers, Panthers and Knights. How do they keep doing this? The weirdest thing is they’re doing this despite a very average Andrei Vasilevskiy.
14. Vegas Golden Knights (36-25-7, +14. CF%: 23, xGF%: 16)
They’re still far too erratic to be considered a contender, but as the defending champions, we can’t discount them too much. Since Feb. 1, they’re 7-10-1 and 26th (!) in points percentage. It’s a good thing the playoff races in the West have pretty much been decided.
15. Washington Capitals (33-25-9, -27. CF%: 26, xGF%: 27)
Last month, I would’ve bet huge on the Penguins to either make the playoffs or finish ahead of the Capitals in the standings. Behind some strong goaltending from Charlie Lindgren and a second-half renaissance from Alex Ovechkin, the Caps have won five of their last seven. The big tests will be coming, with the Leafs (twice), Canes, Jets and Bruins on the docket.
16. Philadelphia Flyers (35-26-8, -5. CF%: 11, xGF%: 11)
The Flyers are in precarious position, just three points ahead of the Caps with two more games played. The divisional standings format is likely what will save the Flyers from the cutoff line, but Tuesday’s win against the Maple Leafs was huge. They did it without Sean Couturier, too, which certainly gives more credence to coach John Tortorella’s decision to sit his captain.
17. St. Louis Blues (36-30-3, -12. CF%: 30, xGF%: 30)
It’s been a sneaky good stretch with four straight wins before a one-goal loss to the Avs, blowing the lead twice in that game. The Blues, however, need to avoid being so streaky to really give themselves a chance. It’s the fifth time since Jan. 1 the Blues have either lost or won three games in a row.
18. Minnesota Wild (34-27-8, -3. CF%: 19, xGF%: 15)
I love the call by coach John Hynes to pull the goalie in overtime because every point matters for the Wild. These are the types of high-stakes calls that could be more commonplace in the future, and the best part is, the Wild seem to buy in on this strategy.
19. Detroit Red Wings (35-28-6, +4. CF%: 29, xGF%: 29)
Needing to come back from a 2-0 deficit against the Jackets does not breed much confidence. The Wings are in danger of not qualifying for the playoffs for the eighth straight season. Though they currently occupy one of the two wild-card spots, you have to wonder when ownership will seriously start to question the Yzerplan.
20. Calgary Flames (33-30-5, -7. CF%: 17, xGF%: 18)
Mathematically, yes, but realistically, hell no. The Flames needed to be close to perfect, but their three-game losing streak was far too devastating. On the other hand, Dustin Wolf has looked really great, at times.
21. Buffalo Sabres (33-32-5, +2. CF%: 10, xGF%: 21)
If you had to pick a dark horse for next season, would the Sabres still be at the top of the list? There’s plenty of talent, but it just can’t quite come together. The Sabres have never been more than three games over .500 this season, and they’ve failed to generate any kind of momentum, winning three consecutive games just twice.
22. New Jersey Devils (33-32-4, -13. CF%: 5, xGF%: 6)
Timo Meier’s recent surge under Travis Green – eight goals, 10 points and 34 shots in 10 games – is the lone bright spot for a team that keeps taking one step forward and two steps backward.
23. New York Islanders (29-24-15, -23. CF%: 25, xGF%: 19)
Last week, I was ready to anoint the Isles as a playoff team, but a five-game winless streak with only one point earned and getting outscored 20-6 makes it look very bleak. Mathew Barzal and Noah Dobson have combined for 10 points and a minus-10 rating in March.
24. Seattle Kraken (28-27-12, -14. CF%: 12, xGF%: 17)
Like the Isles, a five-game winless streak killed the Kraken’s chances. They were outscored 20-8 with only one point earned during that span, and neither Joey Daccord nor Philipp Grubauer look like starting material at the moment. The only reprieve is a really soft schedule coming up with the Coyotes, Habs and Ducks (twice).
25. Ottawa Senators (28-35-4, -26. CF%: 18, xGF%: 20)
Since Feb. 1, the Sens have won just three games in regulation and none in March. According to naturalstatrick.com, the Sens have the second-lowest save percentage at 5-on-5 with a current tandem that’s signed through next season.
26. Pittsburgh Penguins (30-29-9, -5. CF%: 8, xGF%: 12)
There may be no team more intriguing in the off-season than the Pens, who look lost and disinterested outside of Sidney Crosby. If there was a singular point that marked the end of an era, would it be the Marc-Andre Fleury trade, the Erik Karlsson trade or the Jake Guentzel trade?
27. Arizona Coyotes (28-35-5, -23. CF%: 21, xGF%: 23)
The Coyotes didn’t win a single game in the month of February, and that absolutely killed their once promising season. The two most recent 4-1 wins feel a little pyrrhic, at least until land is secured for their new rink.
28. Montreal Canadiens (25-31-12, -51. CF%: 28, xGF%: 26)
It’s great the Canadiens can keep their games pretty close, as they did against far superior teams in the Bruins and Oilers. But at some point, someone other than Nick Suzuki has to take the leap.
29. Chicago Blackhawks (19-45-5, -96. CF%: 31, xGF%: 31)
They’re 4-3-0 following their seven-game losing streak, so this might as well be a call for celebration. Nick Foligno and Connor Bedard have a budding father-son relationship that would be great material for a TV sitcom, but this team desperately needs more NHL-caliber players. Good thing they’re on national TV for the Winter Classic next season so the league can showcase the best the NHL has to offer, right?
30. Columbus Blue Jackets (23-34-12, -48. CF%: 22, xGF%: 25)
Daniil Tarasov was a nice story for about two weeks, but then we’re reminded that this team can’t score because their top scorer has only 11 goals.
31. Anaheim Ducks (23-43-3, -81. CF%: 27, xGF%: 28)
They’ve been shut out three times in their last four games, and another loss will match their longest losing streak of the season.
32. San Jose Sharks (16-45-7, -126. CF%: 32, xGF%: 32)
Remember, the Sharks cannot earn more than eight points if they want to have the lowest points percentage ever in an 82-game schedule in the cap era. You got to have a reason to watch Sharks games, and this is the only one I could come up with.