Erik Karlsson has had a phenomenal comeback season so far as an offensive defenseman. Carol Schram digs through the NHL stats to find out how good he's been.
Erik Karlsson has turned back the clock this season.
It's hard to believe that he's already in his fifth year with the San Jose Sharks. But at age 32, the two-time Norris Trophy winner (2012 and 2015) has a legitimate chance at another award. He has also made it known that he'd be open to playing for a playoff contender as soon as this spring.
He won't come cheaply. At $11.5 million, Karlsson's cap hit is fourth-highest in the league behind only Connor McDavid, Artemi Panarin and Auston Matthews, and the highest in the league for a defenseman. Karlsson has four full years left on that contract beyond this season.
But with his phenomenal resurgence, it's worth taking a look at Karlsson's numbers and how other blueliners are also producing more offense as scoring numbers rise around the league.
Erik Karlsson This Season
Through Feb. 13, Karlsson leads all NHL defenders this season in goals (18) and points (73). He's three goals ahead of New Jersey's Dougie Hamilton and a whopping 17 points ahead of Buffalo's Rasmus Dahlin — one of five defensemen with point totals in the 50s.
Three main factors appear to have triggered Karlsson's resurgence this season:
- He's healthy. Knock on wood, Karlsson has played in all 54 games for the Sharks this season. His ice time is up by nearly two minutes a game, to 25:25, and he's just two minutes away from setting a new personal high for minutes played in a San Jose uniform in a season.
- A new coach is bringing out the best in him. In the big picture, the Sharks' .417 points percentage this season is a regression from last year's .470 under Bob Boughner. In fact, the Sharks haven't floundered like this since their expansion years back in the ’90s. But when new GM Mike Grier and coach David Quinn were hired last summer, it was understood there would probably be a period of pain before the franchise started to turn around. Now, Quinn's successful deployment of Karlsson could result in a trade that brings back a nice return — or even frees up a good chunk of cap space going forward. Either of those outcomes would help move the rebuild along.
- Karlsson has more room to roam this year. The Karlsson-Brent Burns tandem did not turn out to be greater than the sum of its parts. In fact, both players are doing better in their current situations.Now 37, Burns' ice time is down, but his production is up slightly in his new home in Carolina. In San Jose, Karlsson's power-play numbers are up this year. But that hasn't driven his stat line as much as you might think. Even back in Ottawa, he never had more than six power-play goals in a season, although he did have five years with more than 20 man-advantage assists. This season, with about 30 games remaining, Hamilton and Roman Josi are already at seven power-play goals apiece. And four defensemen already have at least 20 man-advantage assists: Quinn Hughes (23), Josh Morrissey (22) and Dahlin and Tyson Barrie (20 each). Karlsson's at 15 power-play assists, but he's actually dominating statistically at even strength. His 14 even-strength goals are four more than his closest competitor, Morrissey. And his 40 even-strength assists are close to doubling second-place Adam Fox (23).At this rate, Karlsson could break the record of 47 even-strength assists by an active defenseman in a season, set by Roman Josi just last year.
Karlsson's also on track to set new personal bests in all counting stats this year.
Through 54 games, he's at 18-55-73, for 1.35 points per game. Over an 82-game season, that would project to 27-83-111. And that would put him 10th all-time in points by a defenseman — the most since the 80s and only behind two guys named Bobby Orr and Paul Coffey.
His present career highs are 21 goals (2014-15), 66 assists (2015-16) and 82 points (also 2015-16, when he finished second in Norris balloting behind Drew Doughty).
The Trend
Of course, Karlsson's otherworldly numbers come just one year after Josi made our jaws drop with 23 goals and 96 points. That tied him with ’80s-era Coffey and Ray Bourque for 17th-best all-time and marked the most points by a defenseman since Phil Housely put up 97 points in 1992-93.
Last season, Josi was one of three defensemen to average better than a point per game, along with Cale Makar (86 points, 1.12) and Victor Hedman (85 points, 1.04).
Prior to that breakout, just four defensemen with over 60 games played had exceeded a point per game in the quarter century between the 1996-97 season and 2020-21:
- John Carlson, WSH, 2019-20, 75 pts in 69 games, 1.09 P/GP
- Mike Green, WSH, 2008-09, 73 pts in 68 games, 1.07 P/GP
- Mike Green, WSH, 2009-10, 76 pts in 75 games, 1.01 P/GP
- Brent Burns, SJS, 2018-19, 83 pts in 82 games, 1.01 P/GP
This year, in addition to Karlsson, two other defenders are above a point a game. Through Feb. 13, three more are right on the cut line, and another is knocking at the door.
- Rasmus Dahlin, BUF, 56 pts in 50 games, 1.10 P/GP
- Josh Morrissey, WPG, 55 pts in 53 games, 1.04 P/GP
- Quinn Hughes, VAN, 50 pts in 50 games, 1.00 P/GP
- Cale Makar, COL, 45 pts in 45 games, 1.00 P/GP
- Dougie Hamilton, NJD, 52 pts in 52 games, 1.00 P/GP
- Adam Fox, NYR, 50 pts in 53 games, 0.94 P/GP
It's actually possible that seven defensemen could have better than a point-per-game at season's end — the same number as in the last 26 years put together.
Whether they're the catalysts or the beneficiaries, players on the back end are certainly doing their part to contribute to the NHL's post-COVID scoring boom. Offense has regressed a bit from earlier in the season, dropping from 3.19 goals per team per game in December to 3.15 today. But it's still in the same ballpark as last season (3.14) and a significant uptick from years prior.
That's one of the reasons why Karlsson's big seasons earlier in his career were such standouts – at that time, he was doing it when no one else was putting up those types of numbers.
This season, he's showing he can still be a cut above. But along the way, the production we're seeing from Karlsson and his fellow blueliners serves as a reminder that the scoring surge is not being powered exclusively by Connor McDavid and his power-play posse up in Edmonton.
For now, we wait and wonder: will they join forces before March 3?