THN's series looking at key questions facing NHL teams continues with this look at the New York Islanders. Patrick Roy's longevity, Brock Nelson's future and the pecking order of the Isles' goaltending are the main questions.
Patrick Roy coaching behind the Islanders' bench during the third period of a Stadium Series game against the New York RangersThis is the newest edition in THN.com’s series in which we analyze important issues facing each NHL team. This time around, we’re examining three key issues the New York Islanders have to deal with.
1. Does coach Patrick Roy have a shelf life that lasts two seasons?
When Roy came aboard as Isles coach in late January of 2024, he did so with 246 games of NHL coaching experience, all with the Colorado Avalanche from 2013-2016. In between NHL jobs, Roy had success at the major junior level, winning the 2022-23 Memorial Cup with the Quebec Remparts. But with the NHL’s coaching carousel spinning faster than ever – and with the considerable expectations on the Islanders from GM Lou Lamoriello – can Roy beat the odds and stay as the Isles’ bench boss for at least this season?
We’d say the answer to that is 'yes', but two years? That feels like forever away, and given some of the roster turnover that’s bound to happen between now and 2025-26, we’re much more hesitant to assure Isles fans Roy will still be running things two years from now.
We’re equally uncertain if the Islanders will make the Stanley Cup playoffs this coming season – and if they don’t make the post-season, will Lamoriello change coaches again? We’d say the answer to that is also 'yes'. Roy’s pedigree as a championship goalie isn’t going to insure him from the pressures that are part and parcel of being a coach in hockey’s top league, and if the on-ice results aren’t where the Islanders want them to be, Roy’s experience isn’t going to save him from the chopping block.
2. Will Semyon Varlamov take the No. 1 goaltending reins from Ilya Sorokin again?
One of the most shocking episodes of the 2024 Stanley Cup playoffs was the Islanders’ choice to go with ostensible backup Varlamov over regular starter Sorokin. And it’s understandable why: in one post-season appearance this past year, Sorokin’s save percentage of .786 was far from ideal – and Varlamov’s performance (including a .914 SP and 2.70 goals-against average) was far better. Roy went with the hot hand, and there’s no assurance he’ll stick with Sorokin in the 2025 playoffs if Varlamov is giving them a better chance to win.
That said, Varlamov will turn 37 years old in April, and the Islanders are paying Sorokin $8.25 million per season for the next eight years. That’s not a payday commensurate with such a salary, so we expect the Isles will go back to Sorokin as their starter to begin this coming season and pray Sorokin plays better under pressure when the spotlight envelops him.
Varlamov is under contract for the next three seasons, but he’s essentially netminding insurance for Sorokin. The starter’s job is Sorokin’s to lose, but Lamoriello and Roy aren’t going to guarantee anyone on the team a job come playoff time. Sorokin will have to earn it, and if he doesn’t, it’ll be Varlamov’s time in the spotlight once again.
3. Will last season’s top goal-scoring Islander – Brock Nelson – finish the 2024-25 campaign on Long Island?
The 32-year-old Nelson posted a team-best 34 goals and 69 points in 82 games last season – the third consecutive season he’s generated at least 34 goals and played at least 59 games. Most teams would want to hang onto an offense-producer like that, but Nelson is entering the final season of a contract that pays him a relative bargain of $6 million per season, and he’s going to get a sizeable raise on that next summer. The only question will be whether it’s the Isles or another team that gives him that raise.
The Islanders are already committed to $65.825 million in salaries for the 2025-26 season, and they’ve got five RFAs to sign with the cap space they have left over. That could lead to a salary squeeze, and force Lamoriello to move Nelson for younger, cheaper players and prospects.
Nelson would be highly attractive – as either a long-term investment or as a pure rental player – so the Isles could reap a terrific return for Nelson on the trade front. And if the Isles struggle early in the regular season and don’t find themselves as a playoff team by the trade deadline, it would make little sense for Lamoriello to keep Nelson around and let him walk away from the franchise as a UFA next summer.
Nelson has been a solid soldier for the Isles in his 11 NHL seasons, and he’s playing in his prime at the moment. But if the Islanders can’t win big games with him in the lineup, the temptation to move on from him could prove too great for Lamoriello to ignore.
Our best guess is Nelson gets traded at or near the deadline, and Nelson gets his best career chance at a Cup with another franchise. It’s not necessarily fair to Isles fans who’ve watched him develop, but in the zero-sum industry he’s working in, Nelson has to know he could be playing his final stretch with the Isles this coming season.