Adam Proteau compares the contenders with the rebuilders based on their number of top picks for the next three NHL drafts.
Although the NHL playoffs will take up the majority of the attention paid to the NHL in the coming weeks, the big picture for franchises is always intriguing to check out – specifically, the state of each NHL team when it comes to their number of first-round draft picks.
After the NHL's March 3 trade deadline, a new landscape emerged in the top picks picture, and it’s going to be fascinating to see how it develops before the 2023 draft takes place.
As is commonly known, most NHL GMs value first-rounders as if they were family members, and that’s reflected in the breakdown of how many first-rounders each franchise currently has. A full 22 teams have at least all their first-rounders in the next three drafts, but after that, things change fairly drastically.
Ten teams – Boston, Florida, Ottawa, Tampa Bay, Toronto, New Jersey, New York Islanders, Dallas, Edmonton and Los Angeles – have two firsts or fewer. And nine teams – Detroit, Montreal, Columbus, Philadelphia, Arizona, Chicago, Nashville, St. Louis and San Jose – have four first-rounders or more.
At the highest end of the draft pick stockpile, Detroit, Montreal, Nashville and St. Louis each have five first-rounders in the next three years. But Chicago leads all teams with six first-rounders – the Hawks have their own firsts, the Lightning’s first-rounders in the 2023 and 2024 drafts and Toronto’s first in 2025.
At the other end of the draft spectrum, the two Florida teams have dealt away all of their first-rounders in the next three years, and Boston has just one first-rounder. That makes some sense, as the Panthers, Lightning and Bruins are in win-now mode, but the fact remains that their future is going to be hampered by the itchy trade trigger fingers of their GM.
The picture changes somewhat when the focus turns to each team’s second-round picks over the next three drafts. Seventeen teams have at least three second-rounders in the next three drafts, but there are more extreme pick totals for the less-attractive second-rounders. The Bruins, Toronto Maple Leafs and Colorado Avalanche have no second-rounders whatsoever, while the Lightning, Rangers, Flyers, Jets and Canucks each have just a single second-rounder.
Meanwhile, the Coyotes lead the way in second-rounders, with an astonishing nine picks in the next three seasons. Just one pick behind them are the Hawks (with eight second-rounders), followed by the Predators (six), Ducks (six) Red Wings (five) and Seattle Kraken (five).
In sum, the Bruins (with just one first-or-second-round pick), Lightning (one), Leafs (two) and Panthers (two) have the fewest picks in the first two rounds of the next three drafts. And the Blackhawks (14 first-or-second-rounders), Coyotes (13), Preds (11), Wings (10), Ducks (nine), Kraken (eight), Sharks (eight), Blues (eight) and Canadiens (eight) have the most high-end draft picks in the next three years. Most of those teams won't make the playoffs, which makes it a nice achievement for Kraken GM Ron Francis that he has all of his first-or-second-rounders and more while also being a post-season team in the Western Conference.
Drafting is, of course, an inexact science. But it’s clear that most teams understand if they’re not a Stanley Cup contender, they must be building through the draft. They should give their draft and development teams as many opportunities to pluck top talent out of the pool of young players as possible. And fans of teams that have dealt away much, if not most of their draft capital understand there’s going to be some lean years ahead on the prospect front.
It’s the circle of life at the NHL level, and it will likely remain this way for the foreseeable future.