NHL Power Rankings: Rangers Push Advanced Analytics to the Side, Maple Leafs Drop

The New York Rangers are back on top in the NHL power rankings as they are the first to clinch a playoff spot. The Predators continue to rise, while the Maple Leafs fall slightly.

Welcome back to the ever-popular NHL power rankings at The Hockey News. Published every Wednesday, all 32 teams will be ranked from best to worst with an emphasis on their weekly performances.

Is it fate?

Adam Fox, the New York state native drafted 66th overall in 2016 who spurned the Flames and Hurricanes to sign with the Rangers, scored the overtime-winner to help them become the first team to reach 100 points and clinch a playoff spot this season.

The Rangers overcame an early 2-0 deficit against the Flyers and were outshot 42-27 but prevailed in overtime following a circus-like seven-goal third period to secure their third consecutive 100-point season.

It took Fox just 36 seconds into overtime to end the game, wristing a laser beam past Samuel Ersson from the slot to help Peter Laviolette win his 800th career game.

This is the first time the Rangers have been ranked in the top spot of the NHL power rankings since November and December, knocking off the Avalanche, who lost 2-1 at home to the Canadiens on Tuesday.

Among the biggest risers this week are the Predators, who climb into the top 10 for the first time this season after languishing near the bottom of the rankings for much of October, November and parts of January. They’ve now climbed up the rankings for the sixth straight week, with captain Roman Josi making a late push to win the Norris Trophy.

(All fancy stats are 5-on-5 and courtesy naturalstattrick.com. CF% stands for Corsi-for percentage and xGF% represents expected goals-for percentage.)

1. New York Rangers (48-20-4, +47 goal differential. CF% league rank: 20, xGF% league rank: 24)

Who cares if the Rangers don’t grade out very well in the advanced analytics? What matters the most is your record. Even if the Rangers are getting outshot, Igor Shesterkin is doing his thing.

2. Colorado Avalanche (46-21-5, +56. CF%: 6, xGF%: 8)

The Avs’ winning streak was snapped in one of the most unfathomable ways, limited to just one goal against the Habs at home and going 0-for-3 on the power play. We may be nitpicking here, but the Avs remain the West’s best so far.

3. Carolina Hurricanes (45-21-7, +49. CF%: 1, xGF%: 2)

A stumble with a 7-6 shootout loss to the Caps and a 4-1 loss to the Pens, but at least Jake Guentzel and Evgeny Kuznetsov have looked really good. The Hurricanes have lost just three times in regulation in March, including a 1-0 defeat by the Rangers.

4. Vancouver Canucks (45-19-8, +59. CF%: 12, xGF%: 10)

Casey DeSmith has kept the Canucks right in the Presidents’ Trophy race, but somehow, among the teams in contention, the Canucks feel the most vulnerable. Perhaps it’s their lack of playoff success (or appearances, for that matter), but they remain one of the most dangerous offensive teams in the league.

5. Boston Bruins (42-16-15, +42. CF%: 24, xGF%: 17)

I griped about it last time, but it’s kind of ridiculous how the Bruins have five fewer wins in regulation but are still somehow one point behind the Rangers. While Linus Ullmark’s play has picked up, Jeremy Swayman’s has gone by the wayside a little bit. How they’ll handle that rotation in the playoffs is still up for debate.

6. Dallas Stars (45-19-9, +51. CF%: 5, xGF%: 4)

With a five-game winning streak, perhaps the Stars should be higher, but consider that they played the Coyotes twice and the Sharks. It’s just been a really easy month for the Stars, but to their credit, they’ve really taken advantage of it.

7. Florida Panthers (46-21-5, +57. CF%: 3, xGF%: 5)

Sam Reinhart will secure the bag following his 50-goal season, but the Panthers have stumbled a little bit with five losses in their last six, including two shutout losses. In their most recent loss to the Bruins, they blew a one-goal lead twice and allowed two late goals in the third.

8. Edmonton Oilers (43-23-4, +48. CF%: 2, xGF%: 1)

Zach Hyman deserves a ton of props because even though, yes, Connor McDavid is Connor McDavid, not everyone can score 50 goals playing on his wing. The fact that the Oilers can regularly blow out their opponents in regulation and rank tops in analytics signals that their defense and goaltending can still be worrisome.

9. Nashville Predators (43-25-4, +26. CF%: 13, xGF%: 6)

I’m not sure what’s in the water in Nashville, but it was an impressive comeback down 4-1 against the Golden Knights to keep their points streak intact at 16-0-2. Filip Forsberg (15 goals in 18 games) and Roman Josi (24 points in 18 games), who scored the game-winner in overtime against the Knights, have been ridiculously good.

10. Los Angeles Kings (38-22-11, +38. CF%: 4, xGF%: 3)

Listen, who cares if you’re boring if you keep winning games? The Kings have not lost consecutive games since Feb. 26 and 27 and, under interim coach Jim Hiller, are tied-sixth in points percentage (.674). Anze Kopitar, who scored his 1,205th point Monday against the Canucks, is now ranked 50th all-time. Sorry, Gretzky, but Kopitar’s the greatest King of all time.

11. Winnipeg Jets (44-22-6, +44. CF%: 8, xGF%: 11)

Losing four straight, three of which were to teams that may not make the playoffs, is not a good look. This is a really bad time to slump, and it gets pretty tough from here with the Knights, Kings, Preds, Stars, Avs and Canucks to close out the season.

12. Tampa Bay Lightning (39-25-7, +15. CF%: 15, xGF%: 21)

We kind of doubted them all season – too old, too tired, too little depth – but once again, the Lightning have somehow flipped a switch and seem like a virtual lock to make the playoffs. The crazy part is that they’re doing this without Andrei Vasilevskiy playing at an elite level.

13. Toronto Maple Leafs (40-22-9, +35. CF%: 16, xGF%: 16)

The Leafs seem like they just can’t really find their rhythm right now, alternating consecutive wins and losses for two weeks. This isn’t exactly news, but I do think the Leafs deserve some benefit of the doubt with Mitch Marner and Morgan Rielly out of the lineup.

14. Washington Capitals (36-26-9, -26. CF%: 26, xGF%: 25)

The Capitals are coming in through the clutch, including a big overtime win against the Red Wings on Tuesday without Tom Wilson. They’re now two points up with a game in hand, with Alex Ovechkin tied for third with 17 goals since Feb. 1.

15. Philadelphia Flyers (36-27-10, -9. CF%: 10, xGF%: 9)

The Flyers keep outshooting everybody, but they don’t have an elite finisher. Their goaltending is good enough to keep them in games but not steal them. John Tortorella was speechless immediately following a loss after Felix Sandstrom’s subpar performance, but – as a sign of growth? – apologized the next day. Somewhere, I think John Grahame’s still waiting for his apology.

16. Vegas Golden Knights (39-25-8, +18. CF%: 22, xGF%: 13)

Placing Tomas Hertl on LTIR will absolutely not dispel any notions that the Knights are somehow skirting the rules. So maybe it’s karma that they blew a 4-1 lead and lost with Jiri Patera in net. If Hertl comes back in time for Game 1 of the playoffs, more eyebrows will be raised.

17. St. Louis Blues (38-30-4, -9. CF%: 30, xGF%: 30)

The 2-1 overtime loss to the Knights really stung, considering they had kept the game so close and managed to tie it up late in the third period. One thing about the Blues that doesn’t get enough credit – their poor possession metrics and anemic offense have really overshadowed how solid their goaltending has really been.

18. New Jersey Devils (36-33-4, -6. CF%: 7, xGF%: 7)

Their season is cooked, and already thinking if the Devils are considering entering next season with Jake Allen as their starter. In spite of his recent play, that can’t be good, can it? The great news is Timo Meier is looking more like the $8.8-million player they traded and signed from the Sharks.

19. Detroit Red Wings (36-29-7, +5. CF%: 29, xGF%: 29)

Just when it looked like the Wings had some momentum, they lose a tough one to Nashville and then fall in overtime in a crucial matchup against the Caps. The optimist will say it’s nice the Wings are playing meaningful games in March and April, but the pessimist will say this is still a team that’s got a long way to go. The Wings face a murderer’s row of opponents in the coming week with the Canes, Panthers, Lightning and Rangers. Yikes.

20. Minnesota Wild (34-28-9, -10. CF%: 18, xGF%: 14)

The 6-0 loss to the Kings was brutal, not just because it was a blowout but also because it essentially knocked them out of the playoff race. Follow that up with an overtime loss to the Blues, and that’s pretty much it. Their focus now should be an all-out marketing campaign for Brock Faber to win the Calder.

21. Buffalo Sabres (34-33-5, even. CF%: 14, xGF%: 22)

The Sabres have yet to win three straight games in regulation all season. Their inconsistency is one reason they’ve never been able to really rise above being a .500 team. Legit question: If you had to pick a franchise goalie today, would it be Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen or Devon Levi?

22. Calgary Flames (33-33-5, -14. CF%: 17, xGF%: 18)

There was a glimmer of playoff hope, but after four straight losses and only six goals scored, including a 3-1 loss to the lottery-bound Blackhawks, that door has been shut. Like the Sabres, the Flames have a key question they must ask themselves in net. Is the future Jacob Markstrom or Dustin Wolf?

23. New York Islanders (30-26-15, -27. CF%: 25, xGF%: 19)

True, the Isles entered a key matchup against the Wings with a five-game losing streak, but what was most damaging about that loss was that it wasn’t really close, trailing 5-1 at one point in the third period. I think big changes are in store for the Isles, but how they extricate themselves from their current cap situation will be mighty difficult.

24. Ottawa Senators (30-36-4, -24. CF%: 19, xGF%: 20)

Big wins against the Oilers and Devils showed the Sens they have the talent, but then again, they’re so far away from being at the top after losing to the Hurricanes and Bruins by a combined 13-4 score.

25. Pittsburgh Penguins (31-30-10, -5. CF%: 9, xGF%: 12)

Since March 1, Tristan Jarry and Alex Nedeljkovic are a combined 4-8-2 with a .871 save percentage and a 4.11 goals-against average. Sidney Crosby or not, no team can win games with poor defensive play and goaltending like that.

26. Arizona Coyotes (30-37-5, -23. CF%: 21, xGF%: 23)

They’ve won four of their last six and really turned the page on that brutal 14-game losing streak, though they’re still not as strong as their first-half showing. Sidenote: It would be really cool to see the Coyotes stay in Arizona just so we could see Josh Doan be the first Arizona hockey lifer – born in Scottsdale, attend Arizona State, play for AHL Tucson and then play out his entire career with the Coyotes.

27. Montreal Canadiens (27-32-12, -49. CF%: 28, xGF%: 27)

Juraj Slafkovsky scored his 40th point against the Avalanche in Martin St-Louis’ return to the bench. Can you believe this time last year, there were already folks who were calling Slafkovsky a bust?

28. Seattle Kraken (29-29-13, -17. CF%: 11, xGF%: 15)

The Kraken needed the Ducks to put forth the most pitiful effort in a most pitiful season to snap their eight-game losing streak. Color me impressed. (Not).

29. Chicago Blackhawks (21-46-5, -97. CF%: 31, xGF%: 31)

The Blackhawks have won more games in March – six – than in any other previous month. That’s the bright side. The downside is they got to play the Sharks twice and the then-struggling Coyotes twice, and they even lost to the Ducks once. This is the team we’re going to watch at the Winter Classic next season, folks.

30. Columbus Blue Jackets (23-37-12, -59. CF%: 23, xGF%: 26)

They’re 2-6-2 in their last 10 and averaging just two goals per game. Johnny Gaudreau has five more years remaining on his deal, and he’s likely going to finish with the lowest number of goals in a season in his career.

31. San Jose Sharks (16-47-8, -133. CF%: 32, xGF%: 32)

Since Feb. 14, following their two-week break after the All-Star Game, the Sharks are 2-15-3 with a .175 points percentage. That’s by far the worst mark in the NHL, with a minus-40 goal differential. Even when teams were tanking for Connor Bedard last season, it never got this bad.

32. Anaheim Ducks (24-44-4, -82. CF%: 27, xGF%: 28)

That’s four shutout losses in their last seven games, and they mustered just 12 shots (!) in a 4-0 loss to the Kraken on Tuesday. The game was so uneventful it became a trivia question: Joey Daccord’s 12 saves are the fewest saves a goalie has had to make in a shutout win since Oct. 28, 2014.