Now that The Hockey News' three-part poll series wrapped up on NHL predictions, Adam Proteau reveals his answers for each question with an explanation of each.

With just under two weeks until the beginning of the season, the pre-season NHL predictions are nearing the end as we await puck drop.

The Hockey News’ recent poll of its web writers and editors is now fully online – you can read Part 1 here, Part 2 here and Part 3 here – but it’s always nice to go over my reasoning for making the selections that I made for the poll. 

I’ve already broken down my choices for a handful of categories, including the NHL awards. But let’s look at all the categories and my thoughts on why I voted the way I did for them.

1. Who will win the Hart Trophy?

I voted for: Connor McDavid

Why I voted for him: Because he’s Connor Freakin’ McDavid, the best hockey player on god’s green earth. The Hart always causes a bit of confusion because the “most valuable” part usually gets conflated with the “most outstanding” part. But in this case, McDavid deserves the nod no matter how you interpret the trophy. He’s on another level than any other elite player, and he’s nowhere close to the best stretch of his career. Barring injury, he’s going to win this again. Read more

2. Who will win the Art Ross (and how many points will the winner get)? 

I voted for: Connor McDavid, with 147 points

Why I voted for him: Same reasoning as above. That said, there’s no guarantee McDavid will surpass his career-high 153 points from last season – 30 more points than he had the season prior. McDavid still will lead the league in points, but I can see him tapering off just a smidge and finishing slightly behind his 2022-23 total. Read more

3. Who will win the Rocket Richard for most goals?

I voted for: Auston Matthews, with 62 goals

Why I voted for him: Although his goal production dropped off significantly last season, Matthews won the Rocket Richard Trophy in the previous two years, and he’s now fully healthy and playing on a Leafs team that projects to be one of the NHL’s most offensively potent groups in 2023-24. Matthews set a career high with 60 goals in 73 games two years ago, and if he can stay in the lineup for the full 82 games this year, he has every chance of breaking that personal best and once again being the most dangerous sniper in the sport. Read more

4. Who will win the Norris Trophy?

I voted for: Miro Heiskanen

Why I voted for him: Many THN voters picked Avalanche superstar Cale Makar as this coming year’s Norris winner, but Heiskanen is in a position to be even better than he was last season when he exploded for a career-high 62 assists and 73 points in 79 games. The 24-year-old is one of the premier two-way blueliners in the league, and his Stars team is set to do a lot of damage in the regular season and playoffs. Heiskanen will win more than one Norris before he hangs up his skates years from now, but this season could include his first Norris win. Read more

5. Who will win the Vezina Trophy?

I voted for: Igor Shesterkin

Why I voted for him: Shesterkin was the NHL’s most dominant goaltender two years ago, and though his numbers dropped a little bit in 2022-23, he still finished the year with a .916 save percentage and 2.48 goals-against average. This season, he’s going to be on a terrific Rangers team (more on them below), and he’s probably going to push his individual stats back up to the very best in the league. Shesterkin also deserves to get some Hart Trophy love, but at the very least, he should finish at or near the top of any ranking of netminders. Read more

6. Who will win the Calder Trophy?

I voted for: Connor Bedard

Why I voted for him: Because he’s almost assuredly going to emerge as the brightest light in this year’s class of freshmen. I’ve noted that I believe the Calder race will be tighter than many expect, but the truth is Bedard was far and away the best rookie selected in the 2023 draft, and he’s going to get first-line minutes on the Hawks this year. Other rookies, including Columbus’ Adam Fantilli, Anaheim’s Leo Carlsson and Arizona’s Logan Cooley, will make their own mark this season, but Bedard is going to be the best of the best. Read more

7. Who will win the Selke Trophy?

I voted for: Aleksander Barkov

Why I voted for him: With the retirement of perennial Selke winner Patrice Bergeron opening the field for the honor of best defense-minded forward in the game, this trophy really could go to any of the people who received votes in THN’s poll – New Jersey’s Nico Hischier, Toronto’s Mitch Marner, Los Angeles’ Anze Kopitar, and my choice, Florida’s Barkov.

Four other voters agreed with me and chose Barkov, and here’s why – he’s already won the Selke once, and he remains one of the premier two-way threats in the game. No reason he can’t win it again this year. Read more

8. Who will win the Jack Adams Award?

I voted for: Rod Brind’Amour

Why I voted for him: Although I do think his Hurricanes team will be a little bit worse than the Rangers in the regular season, Brind’Amour gets my vote in this category, which was won by Buffalo bench boss Don Granato (eight votes). Brind’Amour finished second in voting (six votes). 

Granato is another solid choice here, but Brind’Amour has been one of the NHL’s best coaches for a while now, and more voters recognize him as an elite coach every year. So we’re betting this is the year he wins his second, but probably not his last, Jack Adams. Read more

Correction: Rod Brind'Amour has won the Jack Adams before, in 2021.

9. Who will be the first coach fired?

I voted for: Dean Evason

Why I voted for him: Blues coach Craig Berube received the most votes in this category, with nine voters picking him as the first coach to go this year. I think St. Louis will be a better team this year, so I thought of someone else as my choice – Minnesota’s Evason, who received three votes in total, behind Berube, Ottawa’s D.J. Smith (six votes) and Pittsburgh’s Mike Sullivan (four votes).

I’m not here to tell you Evason is a bad coach. He’s done relatively well for himself as Wild coach. But I do think Minnesota is going to underachieve, and they’ve got a tough start to the season – facing 14 playoff-caliber teams out of 17 games through the third week of November – and that could spell the end for Evason. The Wild need to win now, or GM Bill Guerin will face all sorts of pressure for his own position, never mind Evason’s. As happens often, the coach could be the first to go.

10. Which GM is feeling the heat the most?

I voted for: Kevin Cheveldayoff

Why I voted for him: Senators GM Pierre Dorion finished in a tie for first place with my choice for this category, Winnipeg’s Cheveldayoff; both men had eight votes apiece.

I took Cheveldayoff because his Jets team appears to have its best days behind it, and it could get even worse once he trades star goalie Connor Hellebuyck and forward Mark Scheifele.

Dorion deserves to be up there as well, but ultimately, I think the Sens are a better team than Winnipeg, and they’re likely a playoff team in contrast to the Jets, who will be in tough just to be a wild-card team. Cheveldayoff is sinking, and the quicksand doesn’t seem like it’s going away.

11. Which player is due for a breakout?

I voted for: Matthew Knies

Why I voted for him: Pure hunch pick here, folks. I liked what I saw of Knies in limited action in the playoffs last spring, and I’m guessing he’ll get a fair shot at locking up a top-six role with the veteran Leafs. If he does get to play wing with either Auston Matthews, John Tavares or Wiliam Nylander, Knies should be able to thrive. But I was the only voter who picked Knies – and the truth is, it was a highly varied answer category, with Montreal’s Cole Caufield finishing first with four votes.

He won’t unseat Bedard for the Calder, of course, but Knies gets my vote here because few people outside Toronto would have seen Knies’ development continue on the upward arc to the degree it has. The 20-year-old has the hands and smarts to be a high-impact player, and it really starts this year.

12. Which team is due for a breakout?

I voted for: Buffalo

Why I voted for them: The Sabres are the sexy pick among analysts, and for good reason. Their offense is dynamic and deep, their defense has two workhorses in Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power, and they look to have a keeper in net with youngster Devon Levi. As long as Buffalo can get a slightly above-average showing out of Levi, the Sabres should be a playoff team at long last.

13. Which player will suffer a setback?

I voted for: Jamie Benn

Why I voted for him: There was something ugly about Benn’s two-game playoff suspension last spring. Although he did have a bounce-back year in 2022-23 with 33 goals and 78 points, Benn is 34 years old, and it had been six years since he hit the 30-goal plateau before last season. Father Time should come a’-callin’ soon for him.

14. Which team will suffer a setback?

I voted for: Boston

Why I voted for them: The Bruins were almost a perfect regular-season team last year, and there was really nowhere to go for them but down. And that was before the mass exodus of talent in Boston this summer. The B's still have some valuable assets, but it would surprise no one to see them take a notable step back this season.

15. Who will win the Presidents’ Trophy as the best regular season team? 

I voted for: Rangers

Why I voted for them: Another hunch guess here for me. I think the Blueshirts are fantastically deep at all three key positions, and they may have the league’s best goalie in Igor Shesterkin. I was the sole voter for the Rangers in this category, which the Hurricanes won with 10 votes. I like them, too, but there’s something about this Rangers team that makes me think great things are coming to Broadway this year.

16. Who will win the Stanley Cup (and who will they beat)?

I voted for: Dallas over the N.Y. Rangers

Why I voted for them: I love the Stars’ depth and balance between dynamic youth and veteran know-how, and their coaching and management are among the league’s very best. They got to the Western Conference final last season, but with a few tweaks, including adding forward Matt Duchene, they should be even better this year. Championship-better.

17. Who will win the Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP?

I voted for: Roope Hintz

Why I voted for him: Because Hintz posted another stellar regular season last year (37 goals, 75 points) before ratcheting up his game in Dallas’ post-season run (14 assists, 24 points in 19 games). This year, he takes one step further and helps power the Stars to a Cup win.

18. What Canadian team will go the furthest?

I voted for: Toronto

Why I voted for them: I explained my choice in this article. Let’s move on.

19. Who will have the best odds of winning the NHL draft lottery?

I voted for: Philadelphia

Why I voted for them: Most voters – 18 in total – picked the San Jose Sharks in this category. Six of us picked the Flyers, tying them with the Anaheim Ducks for second place. I like Philly here because they’re tearing things down the right way. By Christmas, they should be well out of the playoff race, causing an even faster tear-down. They’re also in the toughest division in hockey. That should make them the league’s worst team.

20. What player will benefit the most from a change in scenery?

I voted for: Erik Karlsson

Why I voted for him: Karlsson’s production went through the roof last season on a horrible Sharks team, and while I don’t expect him to surge even further with the Penguins, I do think his overall impact will prove to be more beneficial than any other change-of-scenes player. The difference between the barren talent group San Jose has and the high-end core of talent in Pittsburgh should be quite the swing for Karlsson this year.

21. Which team will suffer the most from buyer’s remorse?

I voted for: Detroit

Why I voted for them: The Penguins led this category with 10 votes, and the Senators finished second, with five votes. Our pick, the Red Wings, finished third, with four votes. All due respect to Steve Yzerman, but many of the moves he made this summer brought in talented but not elite difference-makers. Justin Holl’s contract is a good example. Will quantity over quality be enough to get them into the playoffs? No, we don’t believe so.

22. Which star player will be traded (and to where)?

I voted for: Mark Scheifele to Seattle

Why I voted for them: Most voters picked Hellebuyck, but I think Scheifele will be dealt first. And as I outlined in a previous piece, a deal with the Kraken makes too much sense not to happen.

23. Other than Connor Bedard, which rookie are you the most excited to see? 

I voted for: Adam Fantilli

Why I voted for him: From what I’ve seen of Fantilli, he’s got the smarts, instincts and all-around talent to improve the Jackets’ playoff chances this season drastically. Bedard may wind up doing more as far as individual stats, but Fantilli plays a terrifically dynamic game that hasn’t been in abundance in recent years in Columbus. I expect him to do very well and make Jackets games worth watching.

24. Who will challenge Connor McDavid for the Art Ross Trophy?

I voted for: Leon Draisaitl

Why I voted for him: Pretty simple, really: Draisaitl is an outstanding player on one of the league’s best offense-minded teams. If McDavid misses a few games due to minor injuries, and Draisaitl is healthy the whole year through, he could sneak past McDavid and claim the Art Ross.

25. What off-season move will be the most effective?

I voted for: Matt Duchene to Dallas

Why I voted for him: This response had a widespread number of votes; Karlsson to Pittsburgh was first, with six votes, and Brad Treliving to Toronto and Dubas to Pittsburgh each received four votes. I chose Duchene because he’s going to cause matchup problems galore for Stars opponents, and he’s on a show-me one-year contract. He’s motivated and capable of attaining excellence, and Dallas’ already-potent group is made much more dangerous with him aboard.

26. Who is the NHL’s most overpaid player?

I voted for: Sergei Bobrovsky

Why I voted for him: Chicago’s Seth Jones got the most votes here, with six. I voted for Bobrovsky, who, granted, did have an improved post-season. But this $10-million-per-season veteran posted a 3.07 GAA and .901 save percentage, and he’s 35 years old and signed through 2026. Yikes.

27. Who is the NHL’s most underpaid player (not including entry-level contract)? 

I voted for: Quinn Hughes

Why I voted for him: I picked Hughes because he set new career highs in assists (69) and points (76) while making $7.85 million per season and being under contract through the 2026-27 campaign. And he’s 23 years old. That’s a serious bargain. New Jersey’s Jack Hughes and Draisaitl each finished with three votes, while everyone else’s votes were all over the place.

28. Whose bad season was an indicator of reality?

I voted for: Winnipeg

Why I voted for them: Granted, the Jets did make the playoffs, but Winnipeg fans were left with a nasty taste in their mouths, given the way the Jets ended the regular season and played in the first round against Vegas. They looked passive and lethargic, and they were relatively easy marks for the Golden Knights in Round 1. This year, they’re expected to trade Hellebuyck and Scheifele by the trade deadline. Darker days are at hand.

29. Whose good season was an aberration? Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

I voted for: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

Why I voted for him: Another clarification: I don’t believe Nugent-Hopkins has somehow turned into a bad player. He’s clearly an above-average competitor who has helped Edmonton’s offense develop into a high-octane force. However, his very good season saw him score nine more goals than his previous career high of 28 and amass 26 more assists than his previous career best of 41. The 30-year-old will probably dip back to his more modest totals. The Kraken did win the column, with five votes, but I feel good in my pick here.

30. What older player will show signs of aging?

I voted for: Jamie Benn

Why I voted for him: As noted above, Benn is now 34, and he’s logged some hard miles. Physical players like him usually aren’t the longest-lasting players in the league, and we can see Benn’s numbers dropping off notably, to say nothing of his ebbing influence on Dallas’ overall game.

31. What backup goalie could end up as a No. 1?

I voted for: Jeremy Swayman

Why I voted for him: Swayman and Hurricanes No. 3 goalie Pyotr Kochetkov led this category, each with six votes. They both happen to be playing for above-average teams, and they each are capable of stepping in as the starter if injuries cloud the picture for the Bruins and Carolina. Swayman is only 24 years old, and he’s capable of much bigger accomplishments.

32. Which city will get the next NHL team?

I voted for: Houston

Why I voted for them: Decision explained here.

Houston makes so much sense, and it’s a wonder they haven’t received an expansion (or relocated) franchise sooner.