THN Writers Poll: Dishing Out the NHL's Hot Seat, Setback and Breakout Candidates

Which NHL GMs are on the hot seat? Which players and clubs are due for a breakout season? Who's bound to step back? THN polled 34 web staffers for their predictions.

NHL pre-season predictions can end in two ways: becoming one step closer to fortune-telling or hoping nobody bookmarked your guesses.

The Hockey News saw 34 web staffers answer a variety of questions leading up to the beginning of NHL training camp. Part 1 of the three-part series focused on who would win the big individual trophies, as well as the Presidents' Trophy and Stanley Cup.

Part 2 arrives with a look at staff on the hot seat, teams and players expected to take a big step forward in 2023-24, and those predicted to do the opposite. THN.com's team site managers also provided reactions to the results, so check out those links when reading through the answers.

For starters, did three voters already correctly predict something?

One coach is already out the door since the voting took place, but he technically wasn't fired. Mike Babcock resigned from the Columbus Blue Jackets on Sept. 17 amid an NHLPA investigation into his interactions with players. 

But as for who could be the first coach fired, Craig Berube received the most votes, with nine respondents thinking the St. Louis Blues will cut ties with him. He's been the Blues' bench boss since partway through the 2018-19 season when he led the club to the Cup, but the team missed the playoffs last year.

Reaction:

- Is Blues Head Coach Craig Berube Already on the Hot Seat? (Lou Korac of THN's St. Louis site)

- An Ottawa Glance at The Hockey News Predictions for 2023-24 NHL Season (Steve Warne of THN's Ottawa site)

There's a tie for first place, with the Ottawa Senators' Pierre Dorion and the Winnipeg Jets' Kevin Cheveldayoff under the most pressure to lead their team to success.

In Canada's capital, new Senators owner Michael Andlauer wants to hold the hockey personnel accountable for bringing on-ice success to Ottawa. This season, it's very likely to be playoffs or bust for Dorion, who took over GM duties from the late Bryan Murray in 2016-17.

In Manitoba's capital, Chevaldayoff is the second-longest-tenured GM in the NHL right now, and Winnipeg's only made the playoffs six times in 12 seasons. He'll have massive decisions to make with pending UFAs Mark Scheifele and Connor Hellebuyck.

Other than those two, there was a mix in voting between GMs who have been with their respective clubs for years and those who must produce brilliant results in the early stages with their team.

Reaction:

- An Ottawa Glance at The Hockey News Predictions for 2023-24 NHL Season (Steve Warne of THN's Ottawa site)

- Hellebuyck, Scheifele Likely Gone by Season's End, According to THN Staff Poll (THN's Winnipeg site)

- THN Poll Finds Penguins' President/GM Is on Hot Seat (Nick Horwat of THN's Pittsburgh site)

Take a deep breath, as these are the 16 other players with one vote: Matthew Knies, Oliver Wahlstrom, Marco Rossi, Joel Farabee, Matias Maccelli, Gabriel Vilardi, Eeli Tolvanen, Spencer Knight, Filip Chytil, Jake Neighbours, Rasmus Sandin, Martin Necas, Jake Guentzel, Rasmus Dahlin, Karel Vejmelka and Cody Glass.

The Montreal Canadiens' Cole Caufield ended up getting the most love, with four votes. He showed signs of a breakout year in 2022-23 with 26 goals in 46 games until his campaign ended just over halfway through the season due to injury. Scoring at a 46-goal clip, could Caufield surprise the league and reach 50 this season?

Reaction:

- Poll: NHL Breakout Player of the Year Will Be a Montreal Canadien (Rick Stephens of THN's Montreal Site)

- THN Writers Poll: Criticism of Artemi Panarin Harsh, Fox Tied for 2nd in Norris Voting, Lafreniere Tied 2nd for Breakout Player (Matthew Mugno of THN's Rangers site)

"Watch out! A Sabres stampede is just around the corner."

That's what appeared on the cover of The Hockey News' Prospects Unlimited Issue last season, along with "Buffalo Charge." It appears 20 of 34 voters agree with that statement, as the Sabres had their best season since 2010-11 and finished one win out of a playoff spot. 

Better get that issue for free with an annual subscription before it's too late. Or, take a look at the 2021 Future Watch Issue, where the Ottawa Senators graced the cover with the words, "Building a champion: the Ottawa Senators are on a path to glory." They were a distant second in the poll but still received five more votes than third-place Arizona and Detroit. Ottawa had its best season since 2016-17 when they came one goal from reaching the Stanley Cup final.

When you become one of six NHL defensemen to record at least 100 points in a season, but you turn 33 years old, people can't help but think that level of production isn't sustainable. 

Erik Karlsson ended up with 101 points for the San Jose Sharks in 82 games, which is the first time he played every game in a season since 2015-16 with the Ottawa Senators. The Sharks traded him to the Pittsburgh Penguins, and eight voters think he won't replicate his historic season there.

Boston Bruins goalie Linus Ullmark and winger David Pastrnak also received multiple votes – more on their team next.

The other 13 players who received a vote are Elias Pettersson, Clayton Keller, Mats Zuccarello, Carter Verhaeghe, Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Mark Scheifele, Matias Maccelli, Ilya Samsonov, Nikita Kucherov, Jared McCann, Anthony Duclair and Jack Hughes.

 Reaction:

- Penguins' Erik Karlsson Voted to Have Setback in 2023-24 (Nicholas Brlansky on THN's Pittsburgh site)

- The Hockey News Pre-Season Poll Bruins Breakdown (Belle Fraser of THN's Boston site)

Losing Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci to retirement is a huge blow to the Boston Bruins. Add in trading Taylor Hall and the fact the Bruins had the most points in a season in NHL history, and it would take a miracle for them to have anything but a setback. Half the voters appear to agree.

The other teams who earned a vote are the New Jersey Devils, Pittsburgh Penguins, Vegas Golden Knights, San Jose Sharks, New York Rangers, St. Louis Blues, Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars.

Reaction:

- The Hockey News Pre-Season Poll Bruins Breakdown (Belle Fraser of THN's Boston site)

- THN Pre-Season Predictions: Panthers’ Success From Last Season Viewed as Aberration (David Dwork of THN's Florida site)

The voters don't expect big surprises from any other Canadian team, with the Edmonton Oilers and Toronto Maple Leafs being the only two squads to receive votes. Edmonton had the edge with 22 votes, and that club's won three rounds in the past two seasons compared to Toronto's one. The Leafs have been Canada's best regular-season squad for the past three campaigns, but as Toronto fans know all too well, it's the playoffs that count the most.

Reaction:

- Which Canadian NHL Team Will Go the Furthest in 2023-24? (THN.com's Adam Proteau)

The easiest way to secure the best odds for the NHL draft lottery is to finish last in the league rather than trading for first-round picks that aren't lottery protected. More than half of respondents think the San Jose Sharks will have those high odds – they had the fewest wins in 2022-23 but finished 29th due to a whopping 16 overtime losses. Another six voters think the Anaheim Ducks could get the best odds for a second year in a row, while six more say the Flyers continue the rebuild and get that best shot.

Reaction:

- Sharks Most Likely to Win Draft Lottery According to THN Poll (Max Miller of THN's San Jose site)

- Connor McDavid's Dominance, Jake Oettinger vs. Ilya Sorokin for the Vezina and Other Fantasy Hockey Takeaways from THN Poll (Jason Chen of THN's Fantasy site)

- THN Pre-Season Predictions: Insights Into How Players Will Be Affected in NHL 24 and Beyond (Sayed Safir Sodouri of THN's Gaming site)