About seven teams in the Atlantic Division want to make the playoffs in 2023-24. Adam Proteau predicts the rankings and which five could make it.

We’re almost one month away from the start of the NHL’s 2023-24 regular season, so it’s a great time to compile some fun predictions as to how the season will play out. 

In 2023-24, there’s going to be intense competition throughout the league, which is why, after speaking to NHL agents, scouts and media members, we’ve been challenged to pick certain teams over others when posting a pecking order for each division.

We began our predictions Sunday with a breakdown of the Metropolitan Division. Today, we’re looking at the almost-as-competitive Atlantic Division. Just as with the Metro, seven of eight teams in the Atlantic have designs on making the playoffs. And while there aren’t as many legitimate Cup threats at the top of the Atlantic, the division promises to have virtually all its teams competing for a post-season berth, right out of the gate next month. 

Let’s get right to it, and offer this writer’s opinion on how things will unfold in 2023-24:

1. Toronto Maple Leafs

In: Tyler Bertuzzi (LW), Max Domi (C/LW), Ryan Reaves (RW), Dylan Gambrell (C), John Klingberg (D), Simon Benoit (D), Martin Jones (G), GM Brad Treliving

Out: Michael Bunting (LW), Alex Kerfoot (C), Ryan O’Reilly (C), Noel Acciari (RW), Wayne Simmonds (RW), Zach Aston-Reese (C), Luke Schenn (D), Justin Holl (D), Erik Gustafsson (D), Erik Kallgren (G), GM Kyle Dubas

Why they’re picked in this position: The Leafs are somewhat of a polarizing group after making a slew of moves this summer, most notably, the departure of GM Dubas, and the installation of Treliving as his replacement. Treliving went to work immediately, signing veterans Bertuzzi, Domi, Reaves and Klingberg; all of those four are upgrades, respectively, on Bunting, Kerfoot, Simmonds and Holl. For this writer, that makes Toronto an even more dangerous team than they were last season, when they finished second in the Atlantic.

Treliving also signed Jones as goalie insurance behind starter Ilya Samsonov and backup Joseph Woll, but we believe it’s possible, if not probable, that another team takes Jones when the Leafs waive him following training camp. If no team claims Jones, he’ll likely be stashed on the AHL’s Toronto Marlies. But whoever’s in net will have the support of one of the most potent offenses in the game. Adding Bertuzzi on the top line, Domi on the second line and developing promising youngster Matthew Knies makes the Leafs a threat to score no matter who they have on the ice.

Toronto is facing severe salary cap restrictions, but if star winger William Nylander doesn’t have a contract extension signed before camp ends, he’s almost assuredly going to be traded during the season. Treliving isn’t going to watch him walk away for nothing, the way he did when he ran the Calgary Flames and star winger Johnny Gaudreau walked away for nothing. But if he is forced to trade Nylander, expect him to land a high-impact defenseman – maybe Noah Hanifin or Brett Pesce – in return.

Regardless of how the Nylander saga plays out, the Leafs are going to be one of the deepest, strongest teams on the planet. Ultimately, they’ll be judged by their post-season performance, but the Buds are set to thrive through the first 82 games of the year.

2. Florida Panthers

In: Evan Rodrigues (LW), Steven Lorentz (C), Kevin Stenlund (RW), Rasmus Asplund (RW), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (D), Dmitry Kulikov (D), Niko Mikkola (D), Mike Reilly (D), Anthony Stolarz (G) 

Out: Anthony Duclair (LW), Eric Staal (C), Colin White (C) (G)ivani Smith (RW), Radko Gudas (D), Marc Staal (D), Alex Lyon (G)

Why they’re picked in this position: The Panthers barely made it into the post-season last year, then suddenly hit their stride once they got there. That confidence is going to carry over into the 2023-24 campaign, even if they have to go without injured key defensemen Brandon Montour and Aaron Ekblad to start the season. 

Florida GM Bill Zito did as much as he could to fill out his team’s roster holes under cap constrictions this summer, with veterans including Rodrigues, Ekman-Larsson and Kulikov coming on board. None of them are big-time needle-movers, but they already have those in stars Matthew Tkachuk, Aleksander Barkov and Carter Verhaeghe. They just need their support players not to be defensive liabilities, and it looks like they’ll be nicely set up in that regard.

The Panthers need highly paid starting goalie Sergei Bobrovsky to have a far better regular season, but they might also have backup Spencer Knight back in the fold after he entered the NHL and NHL Players’ Association’s player assistance program last year. So long as one of those two netminders is playing well, or if Knight isn’t ready to return and Stolarz excels, the Panthers will be one of the better teams in the Atlantic.

They may wind up in the third or fourth spot in the division, but one way or another, the Panthers will almost assuredly be a playoff team – and this time, they won’t need the entire regular season to lock up a playoff berth. Another deep playoff run could be in their future, but it won’t be easy, and they’ll need all hands on deck to make the same push as they made last year.

3. Tampa Bay Lightning

In: Conor Sheary (LW/RW), Josh Archibald (RW), Luke Glendening (C), Logan Brown (LW/C), Calvin de Haan (D), Jonas Johansson (G)

Out: Alex Killorn (LW), Ross Colton (C), Corey Perry (RW), Pat Maroon (LW), Ian Cole (D), Pierre-Edouard Bellemare (LW), Brian Elliott (G)

Why they’re picked in this position: After three straight seasons of trips to the Cup final, the Lightning were out of gas in their first-round playoff showdown against the Leafs last spring. In particular, star goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy was not the dominant force he had been prior to the most recent post-season. And now, as one of the many teams squeezed by the flat salary cap, Tampa Bay has had their depth cut down severely, losing clutch forwards Killorn and Colton to free agency and replacing them with far less effective fringe players.

That said, although he overpaid to land support players, Bolts GM Julien BriseBois has managed to keep core talents at all three major positions. The likes of forwards Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point, and blueliners Victor Hedman and Mikhail Sergachev, should give Tampa enough ammunition to be a playoff team. They might slip down to the fourth spot in the Atlantic, but a bounce-back season from Vasilevskiy will give them a chance to win night in and night out.

They’ll miss Killorn and Colton, but while the Lightning no longer feel like a Cup favorite, there’s still lots to like about this franchise. They can put the fear of the hockey gods into most opponents in the regular season once again, but they are going to be challenged to reproduce their successes prior to last season.

4. Buffalo Sabres

In: Erik Johnson (D), Connor Clifton (D), Dustin Tokarski (G)

Out: Vinnie Hinostroza (RW), Ilya Lyubushkin (D), Craig Anderson (G)

Why they’re picked in this position: The Sabres made very few changes to their 2022-23 roster, but who can blame Buffalo GM Kevyn Adams for wanting to give his group another chance? 

Were it not for their subpar defensive play in 2022-23, the Sabres would’ve gotten into the playoffs on the strength of their dynamic, often-overpowering offense. And this year, with young forwards Dylan Cozens and Tage Thompson and defensemen Owen Power and Rasmus Dahlin leading the way, Buffalo is primed to take the next competitive step and lock up a post-season berth.

Adams did address his defense this summer, adding veteran depth in the form of Johnson and Clifton. Buffalo now has solid top six D-men, and if young goalie Devon Levi comes through as a dependable No. 1 option in net, all the pieces will be in play for the Sabres to leapfrog over a few teams and assert themselves as a blossoming force in the Atlantic.

Buffalo fans have been aching for a legitimate Cup contender, and while that may be a year or two away, they at least should have playoff action to look forward to next spring. Their youngsters are going to lead the way, and their older players will provide the support and structure a young team needs. Western New York has, at long last, a team to be proud of, and the only question now is how long it will take for the Sabres to ascend to the very top of the Atlantic.

5. Ottawa Senators

In: Dominik Kubalik (LW/RW), Vladimir Tarasenko (RW), Zack MacEwen (RW), Jiri Smejkal (LW), Joonas Korpisalo (G)

Out: Alex DeBrincat (RW), Derick Brassard (C), Dylan Gambrell (C), Nick Holden (D), Austin Watson (LW), Julien Gauthier (RW), Cam Talbot (G)

Why they’re picked in this position: Like the Sabres, the Senators have been struggling to be a playoff team in recent seasons. But now, under incoming new ownership, they’ve added enough talent to be in a solid position to eke out a playoff spot. 

The biggest change they made this off-season appears to be a step backward, as the traded DeBrincat and his offense cannot be easily replaced. That said, Sens GM Pierre Dorion did get some solid parts back for DeBrincat – most notably, winger Kubalik, who will be Ottawa’s second-line left winger.

Meanwhile, Ottawa also added veteran sniper Vladimir Tarasenko on a one-year deal, so the Sens’ offense isn’t going to be lacking in talent in 2023-24.

Ultimately, Ottawa’s defense will be markedly better this season, thanks to their first full year with veteran Jakob Chychrun in the fold, as well as signing veteran Korpisalo to serve as their starting goaltender. The Sens are like a lot of teams insofar as the fact they don’t need to lean on their defense and goaltending and win a lot of 2-1 and 3-2 games; instead, if Korpisalo and their defense corps keep the goals-against totals down to around three goals per game, Ottawa’s offense will do the rest.

Ultimately, the Sens may need the entire season to secure a playoff spot, and they could be squaring off against the Metro Division’s Columbus Blue Jackets for one of those wild-card berths. But we have a hunch they can outlast other Atlantic teams to get back into the post-season for the first time since 2016-17.

6. Boston Bruins

In: James van Riemsdyk (LW), Morgan Geekie (C), Milan Lucic (LW), Patrick Brown (C), Jesper Boqvist (LW), Jayson Megna (RW), Kevin Shattenkirk, D

Out: Patrice Bergeron (C), David Krejci (C), Tyler Bertuzzi (LW), Taylor Hall (LW), Garnet Hathaway (RW), Nick Foligno (LW), Tomas Nosek (LW), Dmitry Orlov (D), Connor Clifton (D) 

Why they’re picked in this position: There has been no greater exodus of talent this summer than the one in Boston. Salary cap constraints forced the Bruins to part ways with Bertuzzi, Hall, Foligno, Hathaway, Orlov and Clifton, and the retirements of Bergeron and Krejci are the most devastating departures of them all. 

It’s never a great idea to bet against the Bruins and their winning culture, but the difference between last season’s incredibly dangerous lineup and this season’s paper-thin depth group is stark. It may be a stretch to place them this far down in the Atlantic, but as we saw last season with the Florida Panthers, it’s entirely possible to go from division champions one year to barely making the playoffs the following season.

Yes, the Bruins still have some elite-level talent, and their goaltending tandem of Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman is one of the best in the game. But the improvement of Atlantic teams in Ottawa, Buffalo and Detroit is likely to cut into Boston’s winning ways. 

The Bruins are all but completely capped out, leaving GM Don Sweeney with next to no flexibility to make in-season moves. Boston had their shot at another Cup last season but squandered it in their first-round defeat at the hands of the Panthers – and now, the reckoning has come for their 2023-24 campaign. We’d never completely count them out from making the post-season, but they’re clearly not as potent a team as they were last year, and a fall down the Atlantic ranks seems like more of a possibility than ever.

7. Detroit Red Wings

In: Alex DeBrincat (RW), J.T. Compher (C), Christian Fischer (RW), Klim Kostin (LW), Daniel Sprong (RW), Shayne Gostisbehere (D), Justin Holl (D), Jeff Petry (D), James Reimer (G) 

Out: Dominik Kubalik (LW), Pius Suter (C), Adam Erne (LW), Alex Chiasson (RW), Filip Zadina (RW), Jordan Oesterle (D), Robert Hagg (D), Alex Nedeljkovic (G), Magnus Hellberg (G)

Why they’re picked in this position: We don’t believe the Red Wings will be closer to the bottom of the Atlantic than the fourth or fifth spot in the division, but the truth is, many of the moves Detroit GM Steve Yzerman has made in the off-season don’t strike us as being moves that can push them back into the post-season for the first time since 2015-16. 

In particular, the free-agent signings of Compher, Holl, Petry and Reimer aren’t needle-movers in a positive sense. We do like the acquisitions of DeBrincat, Sprong, Fischer and Gostisbehere, but there’s so much competition in the division and only four or five playoff spots to be had. The question becomes, which team above Detroit in last season’s standings will be worse than them this year? The answer to that is not many at all.

We don’t want to count out the Wings altogether – if starting goalie Ville Husso posts a strong season, Detroit could nip at the heels of teams like the Sabres, Senators and Bruins and squeeze out a playoff berth. However, Detroit doesn’t have enough generational talents to keep up with the Joneses in the Atlantic, and that may prove to be the reason why they wind up on the outside of the playoff picture this year.

Should that prove to be their fate, Yzerman will be facing heavy criticism for the first time in his tenure as the Wings’ GM. But that’s what’s going to happen to an organization that, for years and years, was the gold standard for being a playoff team and a genuine Cup threat. Detroit’s players need to justify Yzerman’s investment in them, or more consequential moves could be made next summer.

8. Montreal Canadiens

In: Alex Newhook (LW), Casey DeSmith (G)

Out: Mike Hoffman (LW), Jonathan Drouin (LW), Denis Gurianov (RW), Chris Tierney (C), Rem Pitlick (C), Jeff Petry (D), Joel Edmundson (D)

Why they’re picked in this position: The Canadiens made few moves for a team that finished last in the Atlantic last season. But Habs fans are savvy enough to see that young players, including forwards Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield and D-men Kaiden Guhle and Jordan Harris, are helping form the nucleus of something special in Montreal. 

A return to the post-season may be a year or two away for the Canadiens, but it’s better to be building through drafting and development than it is to add mid-tier veterans and finish fifth or sixth in the division. Habs GM Kent Hughes has the patience to build slowly but surely.

It’s probable that Hughes will continue dealing away veterans this season, with experienced forwards Josh Anderson, Brendan Gallagher and goalie Jake Allen being the most likely to be moved. But Canadiens fans will understand and accept Montreal teams being subpar in the short term if it means building a powerful force for the long term.

That’s what Hughes and president of hockey operations Jeff Gorton are attempting to do, and it’s high time the organization accepted its lot in life and patiently did the legwork necessary to eventually become an Atlantic powerhouse. The Habs are doing things the right way, and though the right way means missing the post-season for the next two or three years, it sure beats flailing away and winding up no closer to a Cup than they would’ve been had they taken their lumps and landed the young talent necessary to build a Cup front-runner around.