THN.com/podcast. From THN American Pipeline: NCAA, NTDP, USHL and More Leagues Shine at 2023 NHL Draft Timo Meier [https://thehockeynews.com/.image/c_fit,h_600,w_600/MTk5MTI1MDU0NTc3OTc3MzAw/usatsi_20410635.jpg] Timo Meier There are plenty of big names still left on the board – Patrick Kane and Vladimir Tarasenko, among them – but even with a less-than-exciting class of free agents, there were “still” over 150 signings worth more than $600 million in total contract dollars. As usual, some were lauded as great deals and others as potentially cap-crippling. Nonetheless, it has changed the NHL landscape, and BetMGM has updated their Cup odds [https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/nhl/stanley-cup-odds-tickets-handle-bm03/] for the 2024 champion as of July 2, 2023. The Avalanche remain the favorites, unmoved at +800, and has both the highest ticket percentage (16.9 percent) and handle percentage (22.8 percent). The Devils are becoming a very popular pick, coming in second in handle percentage (18.0 percent) and third in ticket percentage (7.2 percent) behind the Knights (9.5 percent). Below are teams that have seen their lines move since the opening odds were revealed following the Stanley Cup final [https://thehockeynews.com/news/2024-nhl-stanley-cup-odds-breaking-down-the-value-for-each-team], with their current odds first and the opening odds second. Please play responsibly. NEW JERSEY DEVILS +1100 FROM +1200 Great work from Tom Fitzgerald to re-sign Erik Haula, Jesper Bratt and Timo Meier to very manageable long-term contracts, ensuring the Devils will be competitive for years to come. Fitzgerald trading the Devils’ final pick (218th overall) to the Preds so David Poile could make one final pick before retiring was a great gesture and worth the bump alone on karma; Fitzgerald was the first captain of the Preds under then-coach Barry Trotz, who is now the GM, and Poile was the guy who hired Trotz and had been the franchise’s first and only GM. The bet here is the Devils continue to improve with help from one full season of Meier. The implied odds are 8.3 percent, and this is a team on the upswing. They have the second-best odds after the Leafs (+1000) in the East, and if you’re buying the hype, then you should also be buying them now. BOSTON BRUINS +1100 FROM +1000 The Bruins’ odds didn’t jump lower despite losing numerous key players. It was only a step down, moving behind the Leafs and tied with the Devils. In a seven-game series right now, the Devils should be the pick nine times out of 10, and the Bruins have just nibbled around the edges of their roster with lumbering wingers (James van Riemsdyk, Milan Lucic) despite a huge deficiency at center. The Bruins have $6.2 million in projected cap space [https://puckpedia.com/team/boston-bruins], but assuming they re-sign Jeremy Swayman and Trent Frederic, that’s not enough to add effective players unless Patrice Bergeron and/or David Krejci return on league minimums. The Bruins had their best shot last season and went all-in – they have very little currency of any kind (cap, picks, prospects) to improve their roster. VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS +1200 FROM +1400 Just weeks after helping the franchise win the Cup, the Knights proved ruthless in business again, dealing original ‘Misfit’ Reilly Smith to the Penguins. Instead, they brought back Adin Hill and Ivan Barbashev. The Knights presented good value when the opening odds were revealed, and that hasn’t changed. TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING +1400 FROM +1600 As long as the Lightning’s elite players remain elite, they’ll have no problems, as noted in the opening odds [https://thehockeynews.com/news/2024-nhl-stanley-cup-odds-breaking-down-the-value-for-each-team]. They need to shed more salary – nearly $4 million [https://puckpedia.com/team/tampa-bay-lightning] – add more quality depth and re-sign Tanner Jeannot. If the Lightning felt a little undervalued then, it definitely feels more proper now, but we’re still not close to seeing their final roster. CALGARY FLAMES +3000 FROM +2200 We’ve gotten much more clarity with the Flames’ future plans over the past week: they’re probably going to move everyone. Tyler Toffoli was the first domino, and the Flames didn’t sign a single player on July 1. It’s going to be so hard to retool with so many impending UFAs because they have less negotiating leverage in trades, which feels like an inevitable path to a complete teardown. The upside is not good, and the nobody-wants-to-be-here-turned-contender storyline only happens in Disney movies. SEATTLE KRAKEN +4000 FROM +5000 The Kraken’s odds should’ve opened higher. They signed a good player in Brian Dumoulin and will get decent value out of John Hayden and Washington native Kailer Yamamoto. The big thing in Seattle remains goaltending, and we should still be cautious of Philipp Grubauer. There’s much more value in the Kraken than the Flames. DETROIT RED WINGS +5000 FROM +6600 The general feeling is the Wings have too many ‘mid’ players and not enough in the Larkin-Seider category. That’s fair, but one takeaway from the final was Vegas had zero players up for individual awards on their roster and only three players considered truly elite: Jack Eichel, Mark Stone and Alex Pietrangelo. The Wings are still just a playoff contender and not an actual contender, but it’s not certain if Steve Yzerman agrees. He’s been public about not making win-now moves, and one wonders if signing J.T. Compher is to form a part of their core or push them over the edge. Clearly, some people have liked Yzerman’s moves so far, but after last summer’s spending spree, it’s best to see how they mesh in the fall. ST. LOUIS BLUES +6000 FROM +6600 The Blues get a slight bump for being the team most likely to get back into the playoffs. Despite losing five of their past seven to finish the season, there was some optimism with their young players. Kevin Hayes is good value at 50 percent retained, and he fits their mold. The Blues likely have more moves in the works after Torey Krug reportedly vetoed a trade, so it’s too soon to lock them in right now. VANCOUVER CANUCKS +6000 FROM +5000 The betting line move is a little curious. Two things the Canucks were really bad at last season: penalty killing and defense. They get rid of Oliver Ekman-Larsson, which is essentially addition by subtraction, and get two veteran defenders who can PK in Ian Cole and Carson Soucy. Make no mistake, the Canucks defense is league average at best, but it’s still a step up. WINNIPEG JETS +6600 FROM +5000 Are the Jets appreciatively worse after trading Pierre-Luc Dubois? The return was close to a king’s ransom. Not many teams can compete with what the Kings gave up, and there’s still a chance the Jets are better this year, assuming no other veterans are moved just yet. The betting line move feels a little premature, and the bet would be on the Jets’ odds improving in the coming months. They remain a long shot because the question remains: if the Jets are competitive, do they still move Mark Scheifele and Connor Hellebuyck? CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS +10000 FROM +15000 Call it the Connor Bedard effect after the Blackhawks made it official with the first overall pick. However, the Blackhawks definitely have a chance to surprise to the upside. Surrounding Bedard with well-respected veterans was a smart move, and overpaying them on one-year deals should be a net positive because it will also help them get to the cap floor. This is still firmly in the “no chance in hell” tier of long shots, though. MONTREAL CANADIENS +15000 FROM +25000 The Habs continue to do business as usual, betting on reclamation projects (Lias Andersson) and signing low-risk deals (Sean Monahan) and hoping to hit a single, maybe a few doubles. At +15000, the Habs have moved out of the lowest tier, now shared by the Ducks and Sharks at +25000, which feels appropriate.
