THN.com/podcast. Erik Karlsson and Connor McDavid [https://thehockeynews.com/.image/c_fit,h_600,w_600/MTk2ODM1MDgyNzA1NTc3NjAy/usatsi_20279620-1.jpg] Erik Karlsson and Connor McDavid Every year around this time, there is always a debate about the meaning of the Hart Trophy. We are not going to have that debate today, or ever, in my column. The debate always centers around a player who is the best in the league (McDavid) versus what another player does for his team. It is very silly and equally funny that it hinges on making the playoffs, even though that criterion is not stated anywhere. It is a made-up belief system that everyone seems to go along with, regardless of whether it makes sense or not. That brings us here. Connor McDavid is thankfully going to spare us that debate. Edmonton is firmly in a playoff spot, and he will score the most points in a season in the last three decades. He will likely become only the sixth player in league history to reach 150 points. It has only happened 16 times, with Gretzky and Lemieux responsible for 12 (nine and three, respectively). The last time a player had 70 goals? Mogilny and Selanne in 1993! Connor McDavid was not even born the last time someone put up 70 goals or 150 points. A lot of oxygen has been taken up by McDavid’s historic season, but he’s not the only one on the cusp of history. Erik Karlsson joins him. McDavid, who has Draisaitl and others to help him, will undoubtedly win the Hart. But Erik Karlsson is a defenseman who may hit 100 points, and the closest player on his team is 30 points behind him with 61 points. Karlsson has 68 assists. Think about that for a second. A defenseman may eclipse 100 points, something not done since Brian Leetch hit 102 in 1992. Only five defensemen in the league’s history have hit 100 points: Bobby Orr (six), Paul Coffey (five), Al MacInnis (one), Denis Potvin (one) and Leetch. All but three of those century-mark seasons came before 1990, the year Karlsson was born. Karlsson has not received a Norris vote in three years. That is sure to change this year, as he’s a virtual lock to win the award. Only 21 of Karlsson’s points are on the power play, accounting for 23 percent of his points. Power-play points account for 45 percent of McDavid’s output this year. That is not to detract from McDavid. Karlsson impacts the game at even strength in a way we have not seen from a defenseman in decades. Karlsson is having the 20th-best season all-time in points per game among D-men with at least 50 points. He is on pace to have the best even-strength production per game in NHL history should he stay below Coffey’s 24.6-percent power-play point threshold set in 1985-86. Eleven of the 19 seasons ahead of Karlsson in points per game have the luxury of more than 40 percent of their points coming on the power play. Only Coffey and Orr have seasons that are below 40 percent. How does Karlsson’s season rank all-time offensively? Well, if you take the top 50 scoring defensemen in league history and sort by even-strength points per game, Karlsson is fourth behind Orr, Coffey and Potvin. Fourth. Bobby Orr’s career standard of 0.828 even strength points per game is astonishing. He is 0.25 points per game better than Paul Coffey in second place. The gap between Orr and Coffey at one and two is the same as the game between Coffey and Nicklas Lidstrom at 26. Karlsson’s even-strength point-per-game output this season is 0.95. Only Orr (five times) and Coffey (once) have eclipsed that total in an NHL season. Paul Coffey accounts for seven of the 19 seasons ahead of Karlsson’s point-per-game marker in all situations this season. In all but three of those seasons, power-play points accounted for more than 40 percent of Coffey’s production. That is without mentioning that he played with Gretzky for his three most prolific seasons. Karlsson’s best teammates this season have been Timo Meier, Tomas Hertl and Logan Couture. With due respect, none of those players are Gretzky or even Draisaitl, who McDavid has. Karlsson has his deficiencies. He has been poor defensively for a while and cannot be trusted to shut down the opponent’s best. He’s averaging over 25 minutes a game this year with the exit of Brent Burns and has benefitted from the increased usage. The numbers don’t lie, either. Almost every San Jose player sees a significant drop-off in expected goals-for without Karlsson. Every public model has him valued at approximately double the next closest Shark regarding offense. According to evolving-hockey.com [http://evolving-hockey.com], he is 16.1 Games Above Replacement, with the next closest teammate at 8.9. Dom Luszczyszyn’s model [https://theathletic.com/3894138/2023/02/09/2022-23-nhl-gsva-leaderboard/] has Karlsson at nearly double his next teammates in Game Score Value Added and in the 99th percentile. Only four Sharks rank above the 50th percentile. Image [https://thehockeynews.com/.image/c_fit,h_600,w_600/MTk2ODM1MDY3NDA0NzU2MDMw/usatsi_20318354.jpg] The problem is that Karlsson is on a basement-dwelling team. They are not a big-market team, and therefore, he is not afforded the same attention as he would be if he played in Chicago, Vancouver or Montreal. He doesn’t play defense particularly well, either. However, fans and media are pretty forgiving of defensive performances by forwards who put up more than 100 points. McDavid, Nikita Kucherov, Patrick Kane, and Alex Ovechkin have all had less than stellar defensive play forgiven at various points because of high production levels. Karlsson should be afforded that same grace, even more so because he does not have a running mate like Draisaitl, Stamkos or Backstrom to help, and he is a defenseman. This is truly one of the most prolific offensive seasons in hockey history, and it deserves the same amount of attention and appreciation that Connor McDavid’s season is garnering. Both players have put on a show this season and deserve every accolade and superlative we give them. For the record, regardless of how the Sharks perform, I would have Karlsson on my Hart ballot. He’s been one of the league’s best players this year, and I shudder to think what the Sharks would be without him. I hope you’ve enjoyed this regular season because we may not see two performances like this for a very long time.
