What a Mitch Marner Trade to the Ducks Could Look Like
The Maple Leafs seem to be on the verge of a facelift. Mitch Marner seems to be the odd man out when it comes to the "core four" in Toronto. Is there a fit with the Ducks as a possible destination for the talented winger?
The summer of 2024 is one of big change for the Toronto Maple Leafs. Sheldon Keefe was let go as head coach and educated speculation suggests the time has come to move on from members of their current core of four forwards (Auston Matthews, John Tavares, William Nylander, and Mitch Marner) set to each make over $10 million against the salary cap in 2024-25.
Auston Matthews and William Nylander each signed contract extensions with the Maple Leafs within the last 12 months. John Tavares and Mitch Marner have one year remaining on their current contracts. All four players have no-move clauses attached to their deals.
The sentiment around the discussion indicates Tavares (33) and Marner (27) will be the two players the Maple Leafs will be looking to move on from this offseason. Of the two, Tavares will be harder to move because of his age and value to the acquiring team. Marner is firmly in the prime of his career and would certainly net the Leafs a higher return.
Should the Anaheim Ducks consider trading for Mitch Marner?
"I feel comfortable with the progress our young players have made," Ducks General Manager Pat Verbeek stated during his exit interview. "I want to start to make a push, a strong push, to where we're competing and we're in the conversation of making the playoffs next year."
The Ducks have dwelled in the basement of the NHL standings for the last six seasons, finishing among the bottom ten teams every year. They have seemingly drafted well and will, in 2024-25, deploy a roster with five recent top-ten draft picks (Trevor Zegras, Mason McTavish, Cutter Gauthier, Pavel Mintyukov, and Leo Carlsson) and several young, impactful players like Tristan Luneau, Olen Zellweger, and Lukas Dostal.
The future core of the Ducks is in place and they will be looking to take the next steps toward contention in the 2024-25 season.
Verbeek has stated his intention to add a top-six, right-shot winger to his forward group, a top-four right-shot defenseman to his blueline, and possibly another bottom-six forward who provides "speed and grit" to the lineup this offseason.
The Fit
Simply put, Mitch Marner is one of the most talented players in the NHL. He translates his supreme hockey IQ toward his on and off-puck play in all three zones. His vision, anticipation, and dynamic skills make him one of the most effective 200-foot players in the league.
Marner has averaged over a point per game in each of his seven seasons since his rookie year. In total, he has scored 194 goals and 445 assists in 576 career games. He has scored at a greater than 90-point pace in his previous six seasons for the Maple Leafs, including 85 points in 69 games during the 2023-24 regular season.
Unfortunately for Marner and the Maple Leafs, he hasn’t been able to replicate that production in the playoffs. He has 50 career playoff points in 57 games, and many aspects of his game that make him such a dynamic play-creator have been neutralized when the ice shrinks and the intensity grows.
It’s this confluence of circumstances that has rendered Marner the potential “odd man out” in Toronto.
In Anaheim, Marner could wipe the slate clean and lead a nucleus of younger star players through their journey toward contention.
The Ducks have three talented young centers (Leo Carlsson, Mason McTavish, and Trevor Zegras) who could all see their games elevated and their potential fully realized playing alongside a winger like Marner. They all have the ability to open up ice for one another and are consistently looking to create dangerous opportunities off the rush or cycle.
Playing for the Toronto Maple Leafs is like living in a fishbowl under a high-powered microscope. There may not be a more opposite environment than the one provided to players by playing for the Anaheim Ducks. It may be the perfect “change of scenery” if that’s what Marner could be seeking in a potential destination.
The Hurdles
Trading for Mitch Marner has its fair share of potential roadblocks. He has one year remaining on his six-year contract that carries a $10.903 million AAV and a full no-move clause.
No-Move Clause
The biggest obstacle when discussing a potential Mitch Marner trade is his no-move clause. He is in control over which team(s) the Maple Leafs could potentially negotiate with as (a) trade partner(s). He would have to be willing to waive his clause for the Ducks to acquire him.
Five players of note have been traded in the previous five seasons with full no-move/no-trade clauses (Vladimir Tarasenko in 2024, Tomas Hertl in 2024, Erik Karlsson in 2023, Claude Giroux in 2022, and Oliver Ekman-Larsson in 2021).
Extension
Marner is one year away from unrestricted free agency. Any team looking to trade for him will likely only inquire if he is sure to sign a contract extension with them.
If he were to sign an extension, he would be eligible for the eight-year maximum term with the acquiring team. He could be a member of his potential new team for the next nine seasons (one year remaining on his contract and eight more after a potential extension). In that scenario, his contract wouldn’t expire until he’s 36 years old. If he were interested in security and stability, that’s a route he could explore.
Cap Hit
The salary cap is expected to increase from $83.5 million in 2023-24 to $87.5 million in 2024-25. Even with that factored in, there aren’t many teams likely willing to absorb Marner’s full $10.9 million cap hit without retention or sending significant salary Toronto’s way (if that’s their goal).
The Anaheim Ducks could be one of those teams. They enter the 2024 offseason with just over $33 million in expected cap space.
Marner’s contract is designed where he will receive $7.25 million on July 1 as a signing bonus. His base salary will be $775k for the 2024-25 season. If the Leafs trade Marner after July 1, the acquiring team will only have to pay him $775k` in actual dollars (not salary cap) for the remainder of his current contract.
Return
Marner is one of the best players in the NHL and is in the prime of his career. The Toronto Maple Leafs will likely be asking for a significant return from a potential trade partner.
The return may not be as high as the Maple Leafs may hope, however. His NMC significantly limits the pool of potential suitors as Marner can practically hand-pick his destination.
The return may also be hampered by Marner’s AAV. Of the five players with full NMC/NTCs traded within the last five years, all required retention, and most returns were underwhelming. This circumstance is slightly different as Marner has one year (not significant term like with Ekman-Larsson, Karlsson, and Hertl), a full year (not a deadline trade like Giroux and Tarasekno), remaining on his contract and is an elite talent in the prime of his career.
Cap space is an asset. The Ducks’ ability to absorb the entirety of Marner’s remaining contract would free up nearly $11 million in cap space for the Leafs heading into 2024 free agency (excluding the cap hit of any roster player(s) heading the Leafs’ way in a trade).
A first-round pick would likely be the centerpiece of a Mitch Marner trade to Anaheim. The Ducks have two first-round picks in the upcoming 2024 NHL Draft (3rd overall and the Edmonton Oilers’ first-round pick) and 13 picks in the first three rounds of the 2024-2026 drafts.
The Ducks have one of the best prospect pools in the NHL (if not, the best). They would likely have to dip into that pool as well if they were to pursue a Marner trade.
Time will reveal the outcome of the Maple Leafs’ situation heading into the 2024 offseason. They have indicated nothing is off the table. A Mitch Marner trade would be franchise-altering for the Leafs’ and their potential trade partner. This situation will be closely monitored by the entire hockey world.