The 27-year-old forward has one goal in 13 games. DeBrusk says he hasn't had many Grade-A chances, but advanced stats tell another story. Can he turn the lack of production around?
BRIGHTON, Mass. – It’s been a slow start to the year for Jake DeBrusk.
The 27-year-old winger entered the 2023-24 season poised to step up as an even bigger contributor in the top six. An unrestricted free agent this summer, DeBrusk is also playing for his next contract, or rather the dollar amount that will be attached to it.
So far, the production just hasn’t been there. He didn’t score a goal until his ninth game of the season, and he’s gone without a point in the past three. With just one goal and five points through 13 games, DeBrusk knows he has to start providing more.
“I haven’t really hated my game. I think it’s just a matter of I haven’t been getting looks,” DeBrusk said on Monday. “It’s one of those things that you worry about when you don’t get looks, and it seems like they’ve been coming and going. To be honest with you, I don’t think I’ve missed any Grade-A [chances], I haven’t really had many. So that’s obviously something I need to change and that I can control in part.”
According to Natural Stat Trick, DeBrusk has produced 12 individual high-danger scoring chances at 5-on-5, which is tied with Trent Frederic for third-most on the Bruins, and his 27 total scoring chances rank second on the team behind only David Pastrnak (42).
How many of DeBrusk’s chances were considered ‘Grade-A’ can’t really be determined in an official sense, but we can see that DeBrusk is getting chances; they just are not going in.
Looking at all situations, DeBrusk ranks fourth on the team in individual Expected Goals per 60 minutes (ixG/60) with 0.96. Below is the Bruins’ top five in ixG/60 as well as their shooting percentage:
DeBrusk posted shooting percentages of 13.6 and 14.1 in the past two seasons, respectively, but his career-worst shooting season was 2020-21, when he scored five goals in 41 games (5.4 SH%). Besides that season, history suggests his absurdly low 3.45 shooting percentage is bound to go up, especially with what the advanced stats say.
Bruins coach Jim Montgomery said he’s been in constant communication with DeBrusk, encouraging him to continue playing in the same way that’s led to better production in the past.
“Jake makes the Boston Bruins a really good hockey team,” Montgomery said on Monday. “Just staying on him about his habits and details that him and I have talked about, that we both agree upon, is part of what makes him a special player. Needs to be consistent for 60 minutes. It’s in spurts right now, and that’s typical of an offensive player who has not been having the offensive success he’s used to.”
In the meantime, DeBrusk has been ‘demoted’ to the third line with Matt Poitras and Danton Heinen, but that also has to do with Charlie Coyle’s line with Frederic and van Riemsdyk getting elevated because of their recent success together.
DeBrusk has also spent a lot of time on the same line as Brad Marchand this season, and the Bruins captain feels that as long as DeBrusk continues contributing in other areas, the scoring will follow.
“He plays a lot of [penalty kill] minutes and good defensive minutes for us, so he should just make sure his details are really good, and the rest of it’s going to fall into place,” Marchand said. “It always does for him, and he’s such a gifted player that you’re not going to keep him off the score sheet for long.”
Skating alongside a natural playmaker in Poitras, DeBrusk should continue seeing opportunities to start finishing plays, but the winger acknowledged it will be up to him to start seizing those chances, starting on Tuesday against the Buffalo Sabres.
“I think it’s one of those lines that I need to take control of and I need to drive,” DeBrusk said. “That’s something that is hard, in general in this league, but you just got to be ready to go and ready to do it, force things and just demand the puck more I think is something that I have to do just in general, and kind of is on full display if our line is going.”