Three X-Factors for the Boston Bruins in 2023-24

The Boston Bruins core of Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak, Charlie McAvoy and others will set the floor for the team's performance this season, but the following three players will determine the ceiling

As the 2023-24 season inches closer, the Boston Bruins prepare for the impossible task of following up their record-breaking 2022-23 season after a bevy of offseason changes leave parts of the lineup looking extremely different.

The Bruins won’t pace the NHL in wins this time around; it would be a surprise if they won the Atlantic Division. That said, they shouldn’t be among the bottom-feeders either.

With the elite Linus Ullmark-Jeremy Swayman goalie tandem returning with Pastrnak, Marchand and McAvoy, the Bruins still have their fair share of star power.

However, the performance of the following three players will make a difference when it comes down to Boston comfortably returning to the playoffs or fighting for a spot until the end:

For the first time in nearly two decades, the Bruins will start a season without Patrice Bergeron up the middle. Barring a last-minute trade, it will be Pavel Zacha leading the pivot position for Boston this year. He got some experience there last season due to injuries across the lineup, and this is how he fared in the Corsi department:

These are all small sample sizes involving more than just Zacha’s play, so take them with a grain of salt, but if Zacha’s lines can bring anything close to the level of play seen in most of those combinations, the Bruins will be in much better shape than expected.

Even if the Bruins end up trading for a “true” 1C during the season, it will likely be Zacha staying in the top six over Charlie Coyle, so his performance would still largely dictate the team’s success.

McAvoy and Hampus Lindholm are widely regarded as two of the top 20 defensemen in the NHL, and Brandon Carlo is as solid a defensive defenseman as they come. If anyone is going to solidify the top four, it will have to be Grzelcyk.

Grzelcyk became somewhat of an afterthought in the defensive rotation after the team acquired Dmitry Orlov at the trade deadline. He played just four out of seven games in the postseason, skating just 12 minutes per game after averaging 17:14 of ice time in the regular season.

That said, the Grzelcyk-McAvoy pairing – the likely combination to start the season – played 604:05 last season and worked well. The Bruins outshot opponents 327-270 and outscored them 36-15 when that pairing took the ice, according to Natural Stat Trick.

This pair clicks, and while the postseason may tell a different story, let the 2023-24 Bruins cross that bridge if/when they get there.

The rest of the top six is locked in with Pastrnak, Marchand, DeBrusk, Zacha and Coyle. For now, van Riemsdyk is slated to start the season as the sixth forward in the top two lines, but if he proves unfit for the bill, any forward who can step up and fill that spot will be a major factor.

Last season, van Riemsdyk started off hot with the Flyers, scoring five points (2 goals, 3 assists) in the first four games of the season, but he fractured his finger two games later against the San Jose Sharks on Oct. 23, 2022. 

He missed over six weeks and finished the year with 12 goals and 29 points in 61 games. A strong start paired with good health to keep the momentum going would be huge for the Bruins, but it’s far from guaranteed for the 34-year-old winger.

The rest of the roster is pretty full with depth forwards who can hold down bottom six roles. If JVR – or any other potential option such as Trent Frederic, Jakub Lauko, etc. – can’t keep pace in the top six, the club’s chances of competing for a playoff spot will get slimmer.