A growing belief around the NHL suggests Alex Tuch is on the verge of testing free agency, forcing the Sabres into one of the most complicated and consequential offseasons in franchise history.
Every NHL team has a number it refuses to cross. For the Buffalo Sabres, that line may ultimately determine whether Alex Tuch remains the face of their resurgence or becomes the biggest name on the open market.
Alex Tuch and the Sabres Continue Drifting Apart
Every indication coming out of Buffalo points toward the same conclusion: Alex Tuch is inching closer to unrestricted free agency.
What once felt like a difficult negotiation now feels like a financial standoff.
According to Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic, optimism surrounding an extension continues to fade.
"I don't think Sabres GM Jarmo Kekalainen can bring himself to view Tuch in the double-digit salary world," LeBrun wrote.
That sentiment mirrors what NHL insiders have been reporting for weeks. Despite ongoing dialogue, there has been little evidence that either side is making meaningful progress toward a long-term agreement.
From Tuch's perspective, there is little reason to rush.
The 30-year-old has developed into one of the league's premier two-way wingers, producing 309 points (139 goals, 170 assists) in 360 games since arriving in Buffalo as part of the blockbuster Jack Eichel trade with the Vegas Golden Knights in 2021.
Standing 6-foot-4 and capable of impacting games at even strength, on the power play and on the penalty kill, Tuch checks virtually every box contenders search for on the open market.
If he reaches July 1 without a new deal, he instantly becomes the most coveted forward available.
And in a market desperate for elite talent, his reported asking price of roughly $10.5 million annually could easily climb even higher.
The Sabres quietly hoped the Syracuse native might prioritize staying home over maximizing his earning power.
Instead, the signs increasingly suggest Tuch intends to capitalize on what is likely the final opportunity of his career to secure a franchise-altering contract.
AFP Analytics projects him to land a seven-year contract worth $70.82 million, carrying a $10.12 million average annual value—a figure that only reinforces how expensive keeping him in Buffalo may become.
Even Without Tuch, Buffalo's Cap Puzzle Isn't Solved
Letting Tuch walk would create headlines, but it wouldn't magically solve Buffalo's financial challenges.
The Sabres enter the summer with approximately $11.9 million in projected salary-cap space, according to PuckPedia. After accounting for a necessary seventh defenseman, that practical number shrinks closer to $11 million.
That money could disappear almost immediately.
Restricted free agents Zach Benson and Peyton Krebs are both due significant raises. Benson appears positioned to command a long-term contract approaching $7 million annually, while Krebs could reasonably seek around $3.5 million.
Those commitments alone would leave Buffalo with virtually no flexibility.
Which means difficult conversations are coming.
Jordan Greenway and his $4 million cap hit remains the most obvious trade candidate, but teams around the league would likely show stronger interest in players such as Bowen Byram ($6.25 million), Jason Zucker ($4.75 million) or Jack Quinn ($3.375 million).
If management wants to dramatically reshape the roster, goaltender Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and his $4.75 million cap hit could also become part of those discussions.
Then there's Josh Norris.
His $7.95 million salary is attached to a player whose production has never been questioned, but whose lengthy injury history complicates any potential trade. Even so, moving Norris could become a necessary sacrifice if Buffalo pursues another high-end scoring forward this offseason.
One Decision Could Shape Buffalo's Entire Summer
For the first time in more than a decade, the Sabres are operating from a position of hope instead of frustration after ending their 14-year playoff drought.
Now comes the difficult part.
Kekalainen must balance keeping a core piece, rewarding emerging young talent and preserving enough flexibility to continue improving a roster that believes it can contend for the Stanley Cup.
It's a delicate equation with no easy answer.
Re-signing Tuch would keep one of the franchise's most important players in Buffalo but likely force painful roster decisions elsewhere.
Allowing him to leave would preserve flexibility, yet create an enormous hole that may prove impossible to replace.
As negotiations continue to stall, the league is increasingly preparing for the possibility that one of the NHL's most complete forwards will hit the open market.
And with every passing day, that outcome feels less like speculation and more like reality.
