The Buffalo Sabres have played a better brand of hockey since snapping their 13-game winless skid just before the Christmas break, but in spite of winning their second straight game in Ottawa (a 4-0 shutout of the division rival Senators on Thursday) and five of their last eight games, the odds of them making the playoffs for the first time since 2011 remain remote.
According to https://moneypuck.com/predictions.htm, the Sabres have a 2.6% chance of qualifying for the postseason, which is the lowest odds of any Eastern Conference club. In spite of their recent improvement, Buffalo remains in last place in the East with 37 points (16-21-5); seven points in back of the Columbus Blue Jackets for the second wildcard spot.
The reason for the low probability is not just the gap of seven points, but the fact that there are seven clubs in between the Sabres and the Blue Jackets for the last postseason berth, and five of those clubs have games in hand on Buffalo.
On Thursday, four of the clubs that the Sabres are chasing (Columbus, the NY Islanders, NY Rangers, and Pittsburgh) all kept pace with victories. Earlier in the week, five of the seven clubs (NYR, CBJ, PIT, Ottawa, and Detroit) earned at least a point in games that went to overtime or a shootout.
Last season, the Washington Capitals earned the final playoff spot with 91 points (40-31-11), for the Sabres to achieve the same mark, they would have to go 24-10-6 (.600 winning %) in their final 40 games.
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But I believe there's a distinct possibility that Devin Levi is going to be offersheeted. That's what I thought you were going to say. Because Ukepeka Lukonen is the goalie in Buffalo. He is probably going to start probably 50 to 55 starts. They put Devin Levi in Rochester, as they should, because he cannot be a number two playing 20 games. He needs to play. And he's playing really well. But what changes next year? Are you going to call him up at 23 years old and have him be the backup for Lukonen? His contract is up. He's an RFA. He won't be able to clear waivers. So then either you're—not that it's a bad thing to be stuck with Lukonen and Levi. But you're an organization in the Sabres that needs help in other areas. And if Lukonen is your number one and he's playing 75% of your starts, then you have to go and get a backup and maybe use Levi as an asset to be traded before July the 1st. Because Russ, if he gets to July 1st, I actually think the team that Corinne covers, which is his hometown, might be the team that goes out and signs him to an offersheet. I mean, I still don't understand what the Sabres are doing. I really don't. I feel like—and they can match this, certainly they can match this, and they could trade one of them in a year. I just—even for this possibility to be out there with all the talk that there was last year that Levi's the guy, and now to make a 180 on that, this doesn't even make sense. I don't even know what they're doing anymore, Mike. Well, okay. I'm saying this. If the current administration is there, you know, you've got to think of it this way. This might be something that comes from Levi and his representatives. If he sees his road to the NHL blocked, then he probably tells Kevin Adams, well, if you're not going to play me, trade me. Or if I get to July 1st and somebody offers me an offersheet, then I'm going to take that. It's like Philip Broberg. He played most of the year in Bakersfield, got a chance in the playoffs, and then signed an offersheet because I don't know if he saw the opportunity.