
Carolina Hurricanes defenseman Brent Burns has been the focus of a good amount of ire as of late.
He's been the culprit of a few costly turnovers on plays that you just can't make as a 20-year veteran and that's been coupled with a declining offensive game (Burns' offensive production is at the lowest it's ever been in his career at just 1.0 points per 60).
So it's clear that Burns' play has started to dip — being nearly 40 in a sport as physical as hockey will do that to you — but by how much?
Well not as much as fans would think.
There's a definite dip in 5v5 impact on both the offensive and defensive side of the puck, but the numbers don't show it as drastic of a fall off as some would believe.
Burns' is still positively impacting play overall even though his impact may not be as strong as it once was.
The veteran has a 57.82% Corsi For, 54.7% expected goals share and a 55.35% high danger chance share while still holding a completely even 50/50 on-ice goal share at even strength.
A big change this season too is that the NHL ironman is being tasked with a role that he has virtually never had to play: that of the shutdown defenseman alongside partner Jaccob Slavin.
"It is a different role," said Hurricanes coach Rod Brind'Amour. "In the past, they were maybe seen more as the second pair and in more offensive matchups. Certainly this year, it's different and they're having to deal with a ton of the load. But I think they've done a great job."
Previously, Brady Skjei and Brett Pesce were the Hurricanes' go-to shutdown pair, but with the departure of both this offseason, the Canes had to turn to a new duo.
Burns, at 39, has obviously lost a step and it’s not as easy to play Carolina's demanding man-on-man system.
The NHL is faster than ever and as such, defending is more difficult because of that. The odds are not in your favor to avoid getting burned by a Jack Hughes or Connor McDavid.
But how does his pairing with Slavin compare to Carolina's shutdown pairs of prior years?
2024-25: Slavin-Burns (TOI% vs. Elite Competition*: ~45%) [2.63 Goals Against/60]
2023-24: Skjei-Pesce (TOI% vs. Elite Competition: ~38%) [2.43 GA/60] / Slavin-Burns (TOI% vs. Elite Competition: ~37%) [2.15 GA/60]
2022-23: Skjei-Pesce (TOI% vs. Elite Competition: ~35%) [2.35 GA/60] / Slavin-Burns (TOI% vs. Elite Competition: ~30%) [1.98 GA/60]
Data curtesy of PuckIQ and NaturalStatTrick.
*PuckIQ divides all NHL players into categories based on performance with the league's best players being in the 'Elite' category.
So we can see that Burns and Slavin are facing elite talent at a higher percentage in their time on ice than the past two seasons, but also that they're really not getting beat more than the past shutdown pair either.
From last season, they're only allowing 0.22 more goals per 60 than the Skjei-Pesce pairing, with worse goaltending results.
An issue too for that pair in terms of perception is that they aren't getting any help from the goaltending as the duo has a 5v5 on-ice save percentage of just 0.897.
Mistakes are going to happen to everyone, that's just how the game of hockey goes, but the Hurricanes' goalies aren't bailing their team out with enough regularity.
If Frederik Andersen or Pyotr Kochetkov make a few more saves here or there, we probably don't see as much uproar over this all.
However, while the numbers aren't as bad as many feel, turnovers have been a big issue for the veteran blueliner.
This season, Burns has been credited with 83 giveaways and is on pace for nearly double the amount he had last season (56).
It's clear that some of the plays he perhaps is used to making, just aren't working like they used to.
But while the pair, and Burns in particular, have had struggles, it isn't like he's the worst player on the ice or in hockey.
This isn't to excuse Burns' play, which has 100% cost Carolina at times, but he's been more of a positive player than a negative one overall.
In-zone turnovers that lead to goals are going to be more apparent, glaring and damning, but the whole body of work over 60 minutes shows that this isn't a player who can't keep up.
And these overall results are why Brind'Amour keeps utilizing them.
Burns just has to find a way to simplify his game and get pucks out cleanly more routinely and it'll also help if the goalies make a few more saves here and there too.
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