Cale Makar is going to get paid. The only question is how much.

Now eligible for a contract extension, the Colorado Avalanche are preparing for one of the most important negotiations in franchise history. Makar has earned a massive raise, but putting a number on that deal is far more complicated than simply looking at the latest superstar contract around the NHL.

The salary cap is rising. Elite players are pushing the boundaries of what contracts can look like. And every new blockbuster deal creates another talking point in Makar’s negotiation.

But Colorado cannot approach this extension by chasing the market. It has to approach it by protecting its future.

The biggest argument surrounding Makar’s next contract is that every major deal signed around the league only makes him more expensive. The longer the Avalanche wait, the more leverage Makar gains, and the higher the price climbs.

That logic makes sense on the surface.

But NHL contracts are rarely that simple.

A player's value is not determined by the last contract signed. It is shaped by timing, team circumstances, positional importance, negotiating leverage, and how an organization views its long-term window.

One team’s decision to reset the market does not automatically become another team’s obligation.

Last September, the Minnesota Wild signed Kirill Kaprizov to an eight-year contract carrying a $17 million average annual value, making him the highest-paid player in NHL history at the time. About a month later, the Avalanche signed Martin Necas to an eight-year extension worth $11.5 million annually.

The gap between those two contracts was enormous.

Yet the 2025-26 season showed why contracts cannot be evaluated in isolation.

Both players appeared in 78 games. Kaprizov finished with 45 goals and 44 assists for 89 points, while Necas posted career highs with 38 goals and 62 assists for 100 points — the first 100-point season of his career.

If contracts were based only on the previous season’s production, Colorado would have received the better value.

But that is exactly why comparing contracts one-to-one can be misleading.

Makar’s extension should not be dictated by what another franchise decided to pay its superstar. The Avalanche need to determine what makes sense for their organization, their championship window, and their ability to remain competitive around their franchise defenseman.

There should be no debate about whether Makar deserves to be among the highest-paid players in hockey.

He does.

The two-time Norris Trophy winner has established himself as one of the most dominant defensemen of his generation. His current six-year, $54 million contract — carrying a $9 million annual cap hit — has become one of the best bargains in the NHL.

When Colorado signed Makar to that deal in 2021, the expectation was that he would become the foundation of the franchise’s blue line.

He has become much more than that.

Makar is the type of player every NHL organization hopes to build around. He impacts the game every time he steps onto the ice. He drives offense, controls possession, elevates teammates, and has already played a defining role in bringing a Stanley Cup back to Colorado.

The question is not whether Makar deserves a historic payday.

He does.

The question is how much of Colorado’s salary structure should be committed to one player.

The Kaprizov contract offers an interesting comparison.

Before signing his new deal, Kaprizov carried the same $9 million annual cap hit as Makar currently does. His extension nearly doubled that number, but it also came with a major commitment from Minnesota.

At $17 million per season, Kaprizov’s contract represents roughly 16% of the Wild’s salary cap.

That percentage matters.

The NHL is not won by having the most expensive individual player. It is won by having the strongest team when the games become harder.

The Carolina Hurricanes provided the latest example after winning their second Stanley Cup championship in franchise history. No player on their roster carried a cap hit above $10 million annually, and Sebastian Aho was the only player accounting for more than 10% of the team’s salary cap.

Championship teams require balance.

The reality of the salary cap era is that every dollar committed to one player is a dollar unavailable somewhere else. Injuries happen. Depth gets tested. Playoff opponents expose weaknesses. The teams that survive are usually the ones that have enough quality throughout their lineup to handle those challenges.

Colorado understands that better than most.

The Avalanche’s 2022 championship was not built around one superstar. It was built around elite players at the top of the lineup, reliable depth throughout the roster, and three defensive pairings capable of handling the physical demands of the postseason.

That same formula needs to remain possible after Makar signs his next contract.

This is not an argument that Makar should take less money.

It is not an argument that he has not earned every dollar coming his way.

He has.

Players of Makar’s caliber rarely become available, and the leverage in this negotiation belongs to him. If his priority is maximizing his value, nobody could criticize him for that.

But Makar has also experienced what it takes to win at the highest level.

He knows championships are not won by one player.

They are won by having enough talent around that player.

The Avalanche should not view this extension as simply determining Makar’s next salary. They should view it as determining how many opportunities they have to compete for another Stanley Cup during his prime.

Makar is worth a historic contract.

The challenge is making sure that contract does not limit everything Colorado can build around him.

A deal in the range of $15 million to $16.25 million annually would likely represent the ideal outcome for both sides. Makar would become one of the highest-paid players in NHL history, while Colorado would retain enough flexibility to continue surrounding him with the depth necessary to compete for championships.

Because the biggest question facing the Avalanche is not whether they can afford Cale Makar.

They can.

The question is whether they can afford the roster they need after paying him.